To The Moon

A loose cannon mouth to be ignored. Too full of himself.... 

Even before 2023 comes to an end, investors have already begun looking for stock winners beyond this year's "Magnificent Seven & FAANG". Good news is that there will be a broader selection to choose from in 2024. According to Aaron Dunn, co-head at Eaton Vance’s value equity team, “Stock picking in 2023, other than riding the momentum of the big companies, has been really challenging for everybody. Think back to the banks’ runs debacle in March 2023, resulting in 3 US regional banks being shuttered comes to mind, not to mention the unflinching inflation, that finally relaxes from late Q2 2023 onwards. According to the portfolio manager, two major developments will create the growth opportunities: The Fed is likely done with raising interest rates. Companies that have built up inventor

The last FOMC meeting for 2023 will be held on coming Dec 12-13. The meeting’s objective remains unchanged; that is for the voting members to discuss and decide whether to hold the current Fed funds rate (525 - 550), status quo or to adjust it. Even before the Central bankers have a chance to deliberate, US Hedge funds managers and Wall Street traders have took it upon themselves, to look beyond into 2024 and started forecasting on when the Feds will start to bring down interest rates. LOL! Latest CME FedWatch tool, for June 2024. (see below) Markets are now pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut by the end of the June 2024 meeting, up from a 60% chance a month ago. US market performances - 27 Nov to 01 Dec Wall Street’s “hallucination” of a falling interest by the Fed, was most obvious

US slips into Recession in 2024? For much of 2022, recession fears have been building against a sharp rise in interest rates and market uncertainty. Of late, has there been a shift in sentiment. With a resilient US economy, a growing number of investors are seeing an increasing likelihood of a “soft landing” —where the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation without triggering a recession. However, many remain cautious. Below shows US economic forecasts for 2024, across (1) Wall Street, (2) Main Street, & (3) C-Suite. Do you recall, In July 2023 the Fed announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp departure from earlier projections. On hindsight, does the Fed know what they were talking about 4 months ago? While the Fed staff continue to

US market closed off November 2023 with a Bang! At least 2 of 3 composite indexes did, anyway. According to eToro US investment analyst Callie Cox — "It's one of the best months to be seen in the last decade". By keeping Fed funds rate status quo for November 2023, the Fed has effectively encourage investors’ confidence in the face of declining inflation, as seen from monthly official report since the start of Q3 2023. As per CME Fedwatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut by the end of the June 2024 meeting, up from a 60% chance a month ago. (see below) By the time US market closed off November 2023: DJIA: +1.47% (+520.47 to 35,950.89). Index’s new high in 2023, capping the month with a +8.9% gain. S&P 500: +0.38% (+17.22 to 4,567.80). Closed the month up +

It was a report that took everyone by surprise on Wed, 29 Nov 2023. Yesterday saw the release of US Q3 2023, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report - 2nd estimates. Newly updated data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed that US economy actually grew at a 5.2% annualized pace, revised up from 4.9% reported in the advance estimate a month ago. It really looked like US consumers have shrugged off higher interest rates and spent enough to help drive the economy: To a brisk 5.2% annual pace from July thru September 2023. From its modest 2.1% rate from April through June 2023. Indeed, US Q3 2023 GDP, grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years. Is US really living out the "Goldilocks” scenario? That is US economy is growing at a solid pace but not so fast that the Fe

Stocks rose Tue, 28 Nov 2023 as Fed officials socialization began making its round in the media; raising hopes that the central bank may not need to raise interest rates further. (see below) Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is “increasingly confident that policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%” Waller added that he could see a point where the Fed might start lowering rates if inflation continues to ease over the next 3 to 5 months. Fed official Michelle Bowman speech at Salt Lake City, Utah was “darker” in tone. She said “ …. we will need to increase the federal funds rate further to keep policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2 per cent target in a timely way”. However, she did buffer it with “However, monetary policy

I have never met the two main characters fronting $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ . Neither have I: Made the pilgrimage trip to Omaha, Nebraska. Attend one of Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings. Listen “live” to the two gurus. I guessed now I will not have the opportunity, to immerse and benefit the full experience, ever again. However, having said that, I have at different times watch videos of the Dynamic Duo and listened to their words of wisdom. What I noticed is that when the 2 of them are together, there is an unwritten rule in the playbook with Mr Munger allowing Mr Buffett to front any session. But that does not mean Mr Munger would be taking a break. On the contrary, he would be listening intently and jumped in, to supplement or give his v

For the past 2 trading days, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has been making “baby” gains in its stock price. (see below) It has gained +0.84% to $236.08 per share, coming off from a negative bad press due to its owner’s inability to keep his big mouth shut. (see below) Apart from (a) falling stock price, (b) big companies halting advertisements on Twitter, the man now has made a personal trip to Israel. (see below) He has an audience with the Prime Minister himself. Presumably he would try to explain his way out of the current backlashes and predicament, that he has set himself up for. Is he really sincere about making amends OR is it another sideshow of his, in order to put a stop to all the backlashes both Tesla & Twitter have endured? It is diff

Just as I have guessed in my Monday post (click here! to read, help to repost) - US market consolidated. The downwards trading session comes after all the composite indexes have booked their 4th straight weekly win on Black Friday, 24 Nov 2023 and remained on track to book “November” as the best month in over a year, with Wall Street fanning to keep the rally flames “alive”. US stock market performances on 27 Nov 2023 (Mon). By the time market closed: DJIA: -0.16% (-56.68 to 35,333.47). S&P 500: -0.20% (-8.91 to 4,550.43). Worst performer. Nasdaq: -0.07% (-9.83 to 14,241.02). Traded positive for most of the day, slipped in late trading. Off