If Fed Raises Interest In June, Any "Safe" Stock Buy?
I have just posted about “views & reviews” on US interest rate on last day of May 2023 - “US Fed's Interest Hike In June. 3 Factors To Decide”. If you haven’t read it yet, feel free to click above BLUE title to read. Give a “Like” after ok. Thanks. In less than 24 hours, things have taken a “big” turn? FOMC member Ms Loretta Mester have spoken about raising US interest rate by another 0.25% during the forthcoming FOMC meeting, June 13-14. In her interview with The Financial Times, she said “I would see more of a compelling case for bringing [rates] up . . . and then holding for a while until you get less un
US Fed's Interest Hike In June ? 3 Factors To Decide.
By the time Thursday comes around, it would be June already and incidentally, the last calendar month of Q2 2023. Attention will once again turn towards the next FOMC meeting, in Jun 13 - 14. On Fri, 26 May, US interest rate was momentarily under the spotlight after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an “unexpected” outlook of US. (See below). Following IMF’s comment, the probability of a June 2023 interest hike rose to 61.8%. Fortunately, it has since “dipped” marginally. As of Tue, 30 May, probability of a “5.25% to 5.5%” interest band stands at 56.1% (See below). US Interest Rate (currently stands at 5.00% - 5.25%) US Interest hike : 2022 to 2023 The Fed Has Raise Interest 10 Times Between 2022 & 2023: The first hike was on 16 Mar, 2022 The most recent hike was on 3
Hot Hot, Artificial Intelligence. Invest ETFs Or Stocks?
I have posted about Artificial Intelligence (AI) yesterday - Too Late To Buy Artificial Intelligence Stock / ETF? It is US market’s “flavour of the month” afterall. In the post, I have shared a non-US pedigree stock, AI of course! If you haven’t read it yet, feel free to click on above blue-link. Give a “LIKE” after ok. Tks! The funny thing is, I was still thinking about the topic after. Reason being: When it comes to investing in stocks, the inherent (1) risks and (2) challenges come with the territory. A stock could be subjected to: High volatility. Stiff competition. Compliance & Regulation. Ethical challenge/s. So, how do I “participate” in AI-related investment and yet able to “mitigate” abovementioned risks? My
Guru Jim Roger Talks Interest, US Stk Mkt, Investment. We Listen & Learn!
Mr Jim Rogers You may or may not have heard of him - Mr Jim Rogers. If you have listened to his “live” talk/speech, you would be charmed by the way he eases what he wants to convey effortlessly. Who is Mr Jim Rogers again? Mr James Beeland Rogers Jr. is an American investor and financial commentator. He has been based in Singapore since 2007; where he & his family could be (in Asia) and be closer to what he and many others argue is the Economic heart of the World. His Accolades: He is the Chairman of Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. He was also the creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). His Books: As a prolific writer, he has authored 8 books. How’s that as an all-rounder: 1994: Investment Biker:
Too Late To Buy Artificial Intelligence Stock / ETF?
US Debt Limit - on to Part 2 - Vote & Approve. Looks like US Congress (Senate & House of Representatives) is going ahead with Memorial Day celebration on Mon (29 May) afterall. With the “deal” finally hammered out, it’s now left to be voted by the Senate (Democrat majority) on Wed (31 May), eve of original x-date (01 Jun) put forth by Treasury Secretary, Ms Janet Yellen. There is still a “slim” chance that it might not get “approved” at first reading. I wonder, which (if any) Senator will be sufficiently “bold & stupid” to put his/her head on the chopping board by voting against the deal during such tight rope times. Strangely enough, market was “quietly confident” that the standoff between Mr McCarthy & Mr Biden could be resolved as seen by the US market rallying to a “he
US Debt, Stock Market, Interest Hike In Coming Week/s
Revised "X-date" is 05 Jun 2023 And just like that, the “x-date” or drop dead date to approve & raise US debt limit has been “officially” revised by Treasury Secretary, Ms Janet Yellen by an “additional” 4 days to 05 Jun; bringing the much needed “relief & pressure” off the negotiation that is still a “work-in-progress”. The current debt limit handling is worse than the Aug, 2011. There is just too much at stake now: Collapse of US govt. payment Collapse of US stock market Contagion effect on the Rest of the World. (1) US Government Payment - 01 Jun to 15 Jun The pace in which monies needed to be paid by US government between 01 Jun - 15 Jun is almost a daily affair running into Billions of dollars. The US govt is living from hand to mout
I “surprised” myself when I did a quick review of my posts for this week. Apparently, I had posted 1½ article on $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ between Mon-Thu (see below): Nvidia Price Will Gain +25%. I Won't Buy Though (click to read. give a “LIKe” - pls & tks) Inspiration came after reading its latest quarterly earnings report. Despite the A** results, I decided not to invest (now!). With valid & salient reasons as well! Fitch Downgrades US? US Market Crash? Nvidia? (click to read, give a “LIKe”- pls & tks). Devoted half the post on the “plus+” to this semiconductor giant in trying to stike a balanced view of
Weekly Jobless Claims for week ending 20 May 2023 The official weekly jobless claims data has just been released. It will displease the Fed as they mull over further interest hikes. Why? Official weekly data is for week ending Sat, 20 May 2023. Claims filed was 229,000 cases versus economists (polled by FactSet) expecting 248,500 claims. Falling “short” of expectations by -19,500 claims. Compared to previous week (225,000), data has come in “stronger” by +4,000 claims. Overall, continuing claims declined by -5,000 to 1.79 Million versus economists’ expectations of 1.82 Million continuing claims. If you have to make an educated guess, which data set do you think the Fed would very much like to see as Actuals, in order to arm them ample data-ammunition to halt interest hike? US - Q1 2023
Fitch's warning to USA Rating agency has announced that it will be watching over US Debt Limit crisis very closely. This will definitely not bode well for both Mr McCarthy and Mr Biden as negotiation is still a work-in-progress. Last heard is that both teams will continue negotiation next week as they gear up to celebrate Memorial Day on Mon, 29 May 2023. The lawmakers believe the public holiday is more important versus working to avert a national crisis that may crash both US economy and US stock market. Unbelieveable! US Credit Ratings - Can they afford another downgrade? Above are the latest US credit ratings by the 3 established agencies. US credit rating was shaken to its core when S&P downgraded it to AA+; when US ran afoul with the Credit Limit. Back then, Congress managed to
Summary - Nvidia Q1 2024 Top & Bottom Line $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ has announced its Q1 2024 quarter earnings after market closed on Wed, 24 May 2023. To me it was a good set of results at first glance. Post market reaction has been euphoric! The world’s most valuable semiconductor company is poised to open on Thu, 25 May with a +25% surge in its stock price. Fantastic, especially for shareholders! Would I want to join in the “fun & excitement”? No thank you. My Personal Reasons: (1) Try not to “chase” after a stock; regardless “how valuable and full of future potential” at the moment. (2) Referring to its latest quarterly earnings (see above), Nvidia’s top line has missed its mark (YoY). Although it is marginal, nonetheless still a “mi