To The Moon

The CEO reduced his holdings of 440,000 shares for the third time. Will you follow him to sell $(NVIDIA)$?

According to documents disclosed by the SEC, on January 3, $(Nvidia)$ President and CEO Huang Renxun exercised 440,000 shares at an exercise price of $3.615, and sold 440,000 shares at an average price of US$302.17 per share, valued at approximately 133 million U.S. dollars.

As of press time, Nvidia's closed at $281.78. Therefore, this time oF CEO's transaction price was just in the high range, it is good timing of arbitrage though.

(Figure 1)

Before this reduction, on December 1, 2022, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun exercised 440,000 shares options at an exercise price of $3.615 and sold 440,000 shares of NVIDIA at the price of $326.16, valued at approximately $140 million.

In addition, in August 2021, according to regulatory information, Huang Renxun cashed out about $160 million by exercise options and sold Nvidia shares.

So, within half a year, the CEO sold Navida shares three times with a total amount of 1,320,000 shares and an approximate value of $433 million.

MY Questions will be：

1.What is the expectation of the semiconductor industry in 2022?

2.What else star semiconductor stocks you may care about?

3.Will Nvidia's stock price continues to be the king of gains in the semiconductor industry in 2022?

Below are some of the information I collected：

Semiconductor Sales Outlook In 2022 From IC Insights

Based on IC Insights report: 2022 Semiconductor Sales Expected to Grow 11% After Surging 25% in 2021

Total semiconductor sales in 2022 are forecast to grow 11% (Figure 2)and reach a record-high $680.6 billion after worldwide revenues climbed 25% in the 2021 economic rebound from the 2020 outbreak of the Covid-19 virus crisis, according to the JanuarySemiconductor Industry Flash Report from IC Insights.

(Figure 2)

• The Semiconductor Industry Flash Report shows the total semiconductor market growing at a low double-digit rate in 2022.
• Sales growth is expected to slow, but remain above average, in all major semiconductor product categories.

The main reasons for the future growth will be:

• Demand Increase: Consumers' demand for electronic consumer products such as computers and smartphones has increased dramatically.

• Supply & Demand are tight. Due to the short, semiconductor prices may continue to rise accordingly.
• Iterative update of semiconductor products. Due to the introduction of higher-priced and better-performing semiconductor chips, the average selling price of semiconductors has further increased.

Besides that, IC insights reported that 17 companies forecast worldwide semiconductor sales of >$10.0 billion in 2021 are shown in Figure 3.

Three semiconductor companies—$(AMD)$, $(NXP)$, and $(Analog Devices)$—are expected to join the noteworthy “mega suppliers” list in 2021.

Figure 3

From the above Figure, we can see the latest rankings of the top ten global semiconductor manufacturers are Samsung, $(Intel)$, $(TSM)$, SK Hynix, $(Micron Technology)$, $(Qualcomm)$, $(Nvidia)$, $(Broadcom)$, MediaTek, and $(Texas Instruments)$.

How did these top ten semiconductor stocks perform in 2021?

Besides Samsung was listed in South Korea and the United Kingdom stock exchange, SK Hynix is also listed in South Korea, and MediaTek is listed in Hong Kong, China. So I would like to compare the other 7 stocks.

Figure 4

Calculated by tradingview.com, from January 4th, 2021 to January 6th, 2022, $(NVDA)$ increased by 112.2%, $(AVGO)$ increased by 42.95%,$( MU)$ increased by 23.55%, $(QCOM)$ increased by 18.71%, $(TXN)$ increased by 9.1%, and$( TSM)$ increased by 8.24%, $(INTC)$ rose 4.5%.

The king of gains is NVDA.

Will NVDA maintain such a large increase? It is indeed a question. Maybe that's why the CEO keeps reducing his shares.

So will NVDA continue to become the king of semiconductor performance in 2022？

How Institutional investors Measures？

According to a survey from Bank of America in December 2021, Micron$( Technology)$, $(Marvell Technology)$, and $(Nvidia)$ are the most popular companies in the semiconductor industry.

Both UBS and Citigroup rank Nvidia as the Best stock in the semiconductor industry in 2022. They increased$( NVDA)$'s target prices to around $350.

Sounds attractive right?

Let's check NVDA's financial report again: On November 18, 2021, Nvidia released its third-quarter financial report for the 2022 fiscal year ending on October 31.In the third quarter, the company's total revenue was US$7.1 billion, an increase of 50% y-o-y; net profit was $2.464 billion, an increase of 84% y-o-y.

Figure 4

Seems like, Nvidia's financial report data has been very good. In early February, it will release its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's look forward to his data.

Any Risks in this Industry？

• One risk would be once the demand no longer increases rapidly, expectations for growth in the semiconductor industry will also decrease.
• The second risk would be influenced by the weak recovery of the economy, and the epidemic has affected the supply chain. The semiconductor industry has always been constrained by the demand for end products. If economic growth is weak, consumer demand is insufficient, and the supply chain is hit, the semiconductor industry will also be hit.
• The third risk would be the influence of unstable factors in the international situation.
• Another impact would be the more and more frequent abnormal weather and natural disasters.

Finally, In the long run, Nvidia's seems position in semiconductors, data centers, and other fields remains solid. In addition, Nvidia is continuing to promote the application of its chips in the autonomous driving industry which Intel and Qualcomm are also competing fiercely.