To The Moon

The market has finally pulled back after two weeks of gains. I find today's news a bit scary. What is "fear of falling into a great recession"? Rationally speaking, the callback is very reasonable. As for what hawkish Fed officials say, just trigger.

There are few key events that investors need to pay attention:

1) Fed minutes of the March meeting will be released tonight EST. QT probability occurs in May. This minutes will not differ from those issued by the FOMC in March, however, when the December minutes were released in January, the market fell continuously.

2）Q1 earnings season will kick off next week. Banks will lead the earnings from April 13th, and Big Tech giants will also release financial reports in the following two weeks. The sound of recession is endless, however big giants were still stable last earnings.

3) Tax Day, the annual tax season in the United States will end on April 18th. This year is different from previous years, because April 15th is a public holiday. It is worth mentioning that the trading volume is usually light before the Easter holiday in the market.

4) The next FOMC meeting will be held on May 3-4th, and the QT should be happened. It seems that there is still controversy over raising interest rates by 50bp or 25bp. Actually, the week before the meeting was a silent period, which is the week when technology stocks report results.

I keep my optimistic view on April, but it is normal to take the opportunity to adjust after so much increase. Before Easter Holiday X Tax Day, I think the market may switch from unilateral market to a fluctuation market.

And the S&P 500 may step back on the 200-day line or the 50-day line.​

About NQ, it is obvious that the rebound is blocked by the 200-day line. NQ futures correspond to the Nasdaq 100 Index and the corresponding ETF is$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$，QQQ is comprised by the largest 100 companies on Nasdaq, of which FAAMG + TSLA account for more than 45%. If QQQ wants to break through the 200-day line, it has to rely on the financial reports of Giants. Therefore, I judge that there may be a consolidation next, and then wait for the financial reports to start to determine the direction of Nasdaq.​

​$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$​$S&P 500(.SPX)$​$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$