[TOPIC] What Grief Stage Are You At: Denial or Acceptance?
The stock market opened another downturn as Powell warned that the economy and households will experience some pain as the Fed takes more aggressive steps to curb inflation.Casey of FBB Capital Partners said of the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargainin, depressionand acceptance, investor sentiment has gone through the first four stages and is now entering the last one.What are the 5 Stages?The market psychology of bear markets generally follows a five stages of grief - denial, anger, bargaining, frustration, and acceptance --by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross.Denial: At this initial stage, the prevailing view is that stock market weakness is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Far from being angry (see next phase), investors are rather optimistic. Anger: Denial is getting harder to sustain as the market correction becomes too severe. Investor sentiment eventually turned into anger, who complained about the unfairness of the pullback.Bargaining: At this stage, investors redirect their energies to figuring out if they can maintain their lifestyle while their portfolios take a hit; retirees recalibrate their financial plans.Depression: As the market continues to slide, people realize that spending cuts aren't enough. There will be major changes in lifestyle.Acceptance: In the final stage, investors throw in the towel. They surrendered to the bear market and stopped even imagining when it would end. They see any sign of a stronger market as a "fool's rally".Analysts says investors entered the last one?Casey said: Investors budded during several previous stock market rallies, especially $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded strongly from the June lows by about 17%.Investors are now approaching the stage of 'acceptance', especially as the Fed acknowledges that a soft landing is less likely and even allows the economy to fall into recession.Do you agree with him?What stage are you at?Join our topic and post to win hundreds of tiger coins~
[TOPIC] Fed Crushed Market; But SPX. Up Even With 20% Rate?
US stocks experienced roller coaster last night. Chart from Tiger Trade app$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed down 1.79% at 11220.19, a new low since July 1;$S&P 500 (.SPX)$ was down 1.71% at 3789.93, a new low since June 30;$Dow Jones (.DJI)$ was down 1.7% at 30183.78, a new low since June 17.1. Dot Plot Shows More Rate Hikes Than ExpectedPowell's rhetoric was very hawkish, showing a determination to lower inflation.I wish there were a painless way to get inflation down, but there isn't.According to the latest dot plot, after the 75bps increase in September as expected, the benchmark rate is expected to reach 4%-4.5% at the end of the year, much higher than the 3.4% expected in June. Dot plot from cnbcBased on this plot, Fed will have to raise rates by another 125bps by the end of the year, with the first rate cut to wait until 2024. Let's look at analyst's expectations:Chart made by Tiger Trade2. More Rate Hikes Necessarily Means Market Crash? The market plunged mainly because the benchmark rate increased, and the expectation of a rate cut next year was crushed. So how will US stocks perform when more rate hikes are ahead?Let's look at the historical performance during the Great Inflation when Volcker, the Fed chairman, raised the fund rate to 20% (compared to the current 4.5% expectations).Chart from cnbc1) Generally speaking, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ did fall into a bear market during this decade.chart from real investment advice2) But the greatest decline was not in the period when interest rates peaked (20%), but during the previous cycle of rate hikes. After all, the stock market is about expectations. The market crashed when the rate was raised to around 15%, but continued upward momentum when the rate was increased to 20%.chart from real investment adviceBut the question is we don't know we are in the 1st or the 2nd cycle. It's hard to predict the market.Do you think the stock market will rebound after the fear sentiment passed?How do you comment on Volcker's aggressive rate hikes?Will we repeat the Great Inflation?Join our topic and post to win hundreds of tiger coins~
Bitcoin Falls Below $19,000; Will You Avoid Crypto/Buy The Dip?
Bitcoin fell again to its lowest point in three months, dropping below the support level of $19,000. The bitcoin price is down about 70% from its record high of $69,044.77 on Nov. 10, 2021.The digital currency has been falling since this year because of the strong dollar due to interest rate hikes. Recently, SEC claimed all of Ethereum falls under US jurisdiction, which also triggered panic among investors.1. Why is $19,000 important?Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, has pointed out that the $20,000 is a key point for Bitcoin. $20,000 was the high hit by Bitcoin during its last bull cycle in late 2017 and has acted as support and pressure levels many times during Bitcoin's price gains since then.Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies sees long-term support for bitcoin between $18,300 and $19,500.Analysts believe that cryptocurrencies generally open a continued downward path after falling below technical-level support levels.2. Bitcoin Will Drop To...Let's look at analysts' take.Data from tradingview and analysts' takeawaya: Mark Newton, a strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said:a "really significant area" at around $17,500, close to the June lows.b: DailyFX analyst Legan Tang saidTechnically, last week's pullback was the start of a new downtrend, and a short-term break below 18,500 would open up a decline towards the June low of $15,000.c: Sam Callahan, a bitcoin analyst at bitcoin exchange Swan, also believes that bitcoin could fall more than 80% from its all-time highs, based on the experience of previous bear markets. This means bitcoin will fall to $13,800.d: Goldman Sachs warned thatbitcoin is at risk of a collapse to $12,000.In addition to analysts' opinions, data also revealed information.Bitcoin options contracts that will expire at the end of 2022 show that most traders are betting that the price of bitcoin will fall to the $10,000-$12,000 range.Have you invested in bitcoin or other crptocurrencies?Do you think bitcoin has reached the bottom?Share your opinions in the comment section and win tiger coins~
Battle of Bearish & Bullish Sentiment - Buy The Disagreement?
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finally closed up 0.69% and 0.76% yesterday after a week of plunge of 4.8% and 5.5% last week.Unlike the previous unanimous pessimism, after a long period of decline, some investors also saw hope in yesterday's rally. The market is currently inconsistent about the direction of the stock market after the Fed resolution.Let's take a look at the pessimistic vs. optimistic sentiment among analysts.1. The market may make another record low?Some technical analysts say it seems increasingly likely that the S&P 500 will retest, and perhaps even break, the June lows when $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell to 3,630.In addition to "oversold", sometimes the stock market also appears super-oversold, which is a prelude to further declines. This happened before the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crash, Black Monday in 1987 and the 1973-1974 bear market sell-off.a. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said3900 is an important support level, which records the highest trading volume in the past three years. But $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed under 3,900 on Friday, opening the door for a further decline.Some of the biggest companies in the market remain vulnerable. Weakness in the large tech stocks such as $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ may be a significant factor in the continued decline of the stock market.b. Analyst Newton wrote,Given last week's decline, the possibility of a 1-2 day rally is possible. But I don't expect much of a rally until the S&P 500 hits support level around 3,700 in October.2. The odds are with the rally?In contrast to the pessimism, some analysts believe that the stock market is now over-sold and will start to rally after the Fed's resolution of 75bps.a: Sundial Capital Research analyst Jason Goepfert notedLast Tuesday, less than 1% of the components of the S&P 500 closed higher, a situation that has occurred only 28 times since 1940.Over the next 12 months, the index has risen an average of 15.6% and has been higher 79% of the time during that period.b: Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at JPMorgan, believes that despite the Fed's toughness, the decline will not be too great this year.While we recognize that the Fed's more hawkish policy and the resulting rise in real yields are putting pressure on equities, we also believe that any declines from here are likely to be limited.He believed that strong earnings, lower investor positions and stable long-term inflation expectations should cushion any declines in equities.Do you think it's an opportunity to buy the disagreement?Do you have any plan for this uncertain market?Share your thoughts in the comment section and win the tiger coins~
Quad Witching Day Coming - Can Market Survive The High Volatility?
Quadruple Witching Day is one of the most important events in the stock market as it always witnesses heavy trading volume and makes the market highly volatile compared to normal days.1. 4 kinds of derivatives expire on this dayOn the Quadruple Witching Day, four kinds ofderivatives - stock options &futures; index options & futures - expire on the same day. There are 4 Quadruple Witching Day in a year, respectively in the 3rd Friday of last month every quarter.There is another term called the Quadruple Witching hour: the last trading hours on Quadruple Witching Day. The market is chaotic on this day.2. Heavy trading volume due to frequent transactionsDifferent from trading stocks, futures and options have a special time parameter.So traders often seek to close their open positions in advance of expiration. If investors want to keep a position through quarterly expiration, they must sell the expiring contract and buy into the newer contract, which is called“rolling”.Therefore, on this day, many contracts will be closed or newly opened, making the transaction volume higher than normal. Chart from bloomberg3. Arbitrage Opportunities and RisksQuadruple witching may provide arbitrageurs the opportunity to profit on temporary price distortions.You may be fortunate or unfortunate to buy equities or options, futures at a unreasonable price because the high volatility may make investors irrational.Investors focused on short-term investing should be ware of quad witching day and make sure you have enough margin.4. How did stock market performed on and after the quad witching day?In the past 4 quad witching days, the 3 major indices $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ,$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , and $DJIA(.DJI)$ had a 50/50 chance of going up and down. The VIX- so called fear index - remained on a relatively high level.As one day performance might be partial, let's look at how the broader market move 5 days before and after the quad witching days during 2003-2020.There is a higher probability of upward movement 5 days before the Quadruple Witching Day, and downward movement 5 days after the quad.Generally speaking, if there is a rise before the quad witching days, the chances of a turnaround in the market after the quad witching days are slightly higher.Do you hold derivatives expiring today?Do you have arbitrage plan on this day?Will your portfolio be affected by the Quad witching day?Share your thoughts in the comment section and win tiger coins~
On Monday, Ark founder Cathie Wood said that deflation is brewing.On Tuesday, Wood "bought the dip", which suggested she was preparing for it or confident on the stock market. Cathie Wood spent $41.9 million to add 27 companies, the highest single-day purchase since February. $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ $Zoom(ZM)$ Athanasios Psarofagis, a Bloomberg ETF researcher, saidHer investments in the US stock market fell a lot after January this year, but have started to rise in recent days. Cathie Wood’smove on Tuesday suggests shewasvery confident.Regarding "buy low and sell high", it is important to mention Warren Buffett's famous quotebe “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”Different from the investing guru, retail investors often make mistakes. Instead of “buy the dip and sell the rip”, it always turned to be "buy high and sell low."Do you think Wood buy the dip or buy the rip on Tuesday?Have you ever suffered from these heart-breaking experiences?Which one hurts more for you?Join our topic and post to win tiger coins~
The Biggest Single Day Drop vs. Jump of AAPL- How To Cope With High Volatility?
Sept. 14 vs. Sept. 13: $Apple(AAPL)$ closed down nearly 6% and rose 3.85% respectively, recording the biggest single day drop since September 2020 and jump since May.1. Low Beta vs High Beta?$Apple(AAPL)$ has been a good representative of low beta stocks. In comparison, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has high beta.Beta is a way of measuring a stock's volatility compared with the overall market's volatility.It means Apple tends to fluctuate in a small range in stock market. Thus, a near 6% plunge was particularly rare for Apple.In previous article, we mentioned that Apple’s single day jump was prompted by the company’s surprising pre-orders. While Apple’s single day plunge can attribute to the depressing and unexpected CPI data.2. Why does Apple join the high volatility ranks?Recently, many good news help push $Apple(AAPL)$ 's share higher: New product launchPositive pre-order dataInstitution’s net flow in AppleThese news also makes investors more confident on $Apple(AAPL)$. However, the coin always has two sides. Institutions and investors buy more Apple because they don't have much choice in this vulnerable market. The historical drop last night may help $Apple(AAPL)$ go back to the normal.3. Good strategies to cope with high volatility1) Basic and simple choiceNanette Abuhoff Jacobson,Investing strategists from Hartford Funds said,Adjusting the investment portfolio to 50/50Rate hikes will challenge the stock market over the next 6-12 months. Anyone looking at this investment period should consider reducing the proportion of equities and increasing the weighting in cash, bonds and commodities.If the market continue to go lower, investors may find a common scenario in recessions: stocks fall and bond markets rise.Investors can adjust stock/bond ratio of 60/40 to 50/50 and then moving back to 60/40 when the market sells off further.2) Advanced choice of OptionsStraddle and StrangleStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (ATM).The biggest advantage is that it does not judge the direction of the stock movement but only bets on high volatility, which means that the underlying stock needs to be volatile enough so that the return on one side is greater than the cost on both sides.The risk is that the price of the underlying stock is not volatile enough to offset the cost of buying two options.Strangle differs from Straddle in that it buys a combination of “call and put” with different strike prices, but the same expiration date, and the strike price is usually out-of-the-money (OTM).It allows you to take profit when the price breaks through a certain range (whether up or down). It’s suitable for stocks with very high volatility, typically growth stocks and technology stocks.Wonder what ticker is suitable for straddle and strangle? You can click "Options" of your familiar ticker, and click "Bulk Order" to find institutions trading on options.For example, investors bet on $Alibaba(BABA)$'s volatility and buy the combination of "call and put" at the same expiration date, which is "straddle" as we mentioned above.What's your opinions towards Apple's opposite move in 2 days?Do you have good strategies to cope with high volatility?Share your thoughts in the comment section and win tiger coins~
[TOPIC] Apple Gained 3.85% - Have You Contributed To The Pre-Order Data?
On positive iPhone pre-order data, $Apple(AAPL)$ gained the most since May and for the first time closed above its 200-day moving average since August. As of the close, Apple was up 3.85% and has driven the market to 4 straight gains. $Apple(AAPL)$ was down 7.8% year-to-date, far better than the broader market.Chart from Bloomberg1. What happened to Apple?Pre-order data showed the iPhone 14 Pro Max was the best selling model, surpassing what the older version in the previous year. The popularity of iPhone 14 Pro is because the iPhone upgrades are mainly coming to the higher-end Pro line.The upgrade of dynamic islands and the new camera only in pro series:Photo from https://www.notebookcheck.net/The high-end Pro line is so popular that the iPhone 14 Pro shipping time has now been delayed to mid to late October, taking 5-6 weeks; compared to the 2-3 weeks of shipping time shown before pre-orders.Based on the delivery time of the company’s online stores in major markets, the comparison between iPhone 14 and 13 is as follows:regular models of the iPhone 14 have a “bad” result compared to the iPhone 13 series;iPhone 14 Pro Max pre-order results as “good”“neutral” about the Pro version.Let's look at how analysts view the positive pre-order of Apple.2. Analysts’t Take 1. KGI Securities analyst Christine WangPre-order data shows that the iPhone 14 Pro Max is the best-selling model, and that it is doing better than the iPhone 13 Pro Max did at this point.The pricing of the iPhone 14 series is positive for its future sales. 2. A pre-order survey by Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst famous for predicting Apple's products, shows that the iPhone 14 Pro series accounts for about 85%of the order in China, and the iPhone 14 Plus order is about 5%.Pre-orders for Apple's high-end products are always more popular in the early stages. From this survey, the Pro models account for a higher percentage of orders this year compared to previous years, reflecting a change in Apple's product segmentation strategy.3. The well-known website for Apple news - 9to5mac- analyzed that,Based on the current pre-order result, strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models will likely last until at least November.But suppose Apple doesn’t increase iPhone Pro orders afterward. In that case, the potential order cut of iPhone 14 and 14 Plus could offset Apple’s revenue growth from a better iPhone product mix (iPhone ASP increase) in late 4Q22 or 1Q23.Have you ordered iPhone 14 Pro Line?Do you think pre-order optimism will continue in this month?Join our topic and post to win hundreds of tiger coins~
How Will UK & Commonwealth Go After the Lengendary Queen Was Gone?
London Bridge is Down - On 8 Sept, Queen Elizabeth II died at the age of 96 at Balmoral Castle in Scotland, ending a 70-year reign as the monarch of the United Kingdom and the British Commonwealth.Yesterday, Buckingham Palace said the Queen was under medical supervision.Until 4 pm local time, the code to inform the Queen's death came out, "London Bridge is down"The legendary life of the Queen Elizabeth IIBorn in London on April 21, 1926, Elizabeth was the eldest daughter of the Duke of York and the grandfather of George V.Photo from googleHer life and reign was lengendary as she made multiple records and gained so many titles.Lived through wars and a dozen British PM, and 14 US presidentsThe first woman in the royal family to join the armyThe longest reigning British monarch in historyThe British monarch made the most foreign tripsElizabeth II was ever called a living history book as she lived through over a dozen British Prime Ministers, 14 US, presidents and 20 Summer Olympics. She appointed UK prime minister from Winston Churchill to the newly elected Elizabeth Truss.Photo from BBCDuring her 70 years of reign, Elizabeth II also witnessed and lived through wars, including World War II, the Cold War, the Korean War, the Suez War, Malvinas war, the Iraq War, and the Afghanistan War.On February 6, 2022, she became the first British monarch to celebrate the Platinum Jubilee (70th anniversary of of Queen Elizabeth II's coronation), which means she has reigned longer than her great-grandmother Queen Victoria.She is also the British monarch who has made the most foreign trips. During her reign, Elizabeth II made more than 300 overseas trips, visiting 117 countries and territories.Future implications1. Will Australia become a Republic after the Queen passed away?The Commonwealth is made up of 56 countries, covering a quarter of the world's land area. 15 are Commonwealth realms, and Elizabeth II is the head of state.Australia has repeatedly expressed its desire to leave the Commonwealth in recent years.Greens leader Adam Bandt issued his own condolences and said his thoughts were with her family and all who loved her.But he tweeted thatNow Australia must move forward. We need Treaty with First Nations people, and we need to become a Republic.In his words, the Queen was indeed a remarkable monarch and leader of the Commonwealth.But as Queen passed away, Australians may start asking themselves what happens next for Australia.2. Can the monarchy survive?While the Queen is loved by the public, many people believe that "monarchy" equals "queen". The new King Charles, however, does not seem to have many supporters.Photo from google3. Is the UK facing another referendum?There are many internal conflicts in the UK.The Queen, who seldom comment on politics, has publicly expressed her opinion during the Scottish referendum in 1977 and 2014. Her personal charm and words also considered to have defused the crisis.Another question may be raised that is there going to be another referendum in Scotland?These questions would be answered by the time and history.What's your opinion towards the life of Elizabeth II?Do you think the British Commonwealth will collapse?Can King Charles win the love of the people?Share your thoughts in the comment section and win tiger coins~
[TOPIC] Pros & Cons of Apple Products - Push $AAPL Up？
At 1:00 am SGT on September 8, $Apple(AAPL)$ held its launch event themed "Far Out" at the Steve Jobs Theater, the first offline launch event in three years since the pandemic.Let's look at the details of the new iphone 14 series.1. New Products & DetailsApple announced four new phones (iPhone 14/Plus, iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max), three watches (AppleWatch Series 8, AppleWatch SE, Apple Watch Ultra), and one headphone AirPods Pro 2.Let's look at the difference betwwen iphone 14 and 13:Design: Compared to the Apple 13, iPhone 14 Pro turns the infamous notch into "pill-and-hole" design. It was called as a 'Dynamic Island'.Processor: Iphone 14 and 14 plus still use the A15 Bionic chipset as the iphone 13; however, the iphone 14 pro uses the cutting edge A16 Bionic chip, which has lower power consumption and better camera capabilities.Price: The price remains the same with the starting cost of $799; the larger iPhone 14 Plus comes in at $100 more with prices beginning at $899.Data from laptopmag2. Good/Bad Comments?1) No substancial upgradeBut you can’t help feeling a little let down that you’re not getting the expected upgrade, especially in phones at this price.This will still be the iPhone to get for most people, but with no attempt to bring some areas in line with what Android users have enjoyed for years in cheaper phones (a 120Hz refresh rate, for example), this one may sting.This year, more than ever, the latest iPhone is a tough sell when you compare the specs.2) Really like new featuresFrom twitterFrom twitter3. How Will Apple stock perform?1) iphone remains strongData show that iphone's market share in the US exceeded 50% for the first time at the end of June.As Apple's most important product, iPhone sales accounted for more than 50% of total revenue last year, reaching $192 billion. iPhone sales are expected to grow another 6.7% this fiscal year through the end of September, to a record $205 billion.2) good earnings in OctoberAccording to statistics,since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, $Apple(AAPL)$ 's average earnings in October could reach 4.3%.3) analysts' opinionsWith the release of new Apple series in 2022, some analysts have given a price target of $220.Alex William, editor-in-chief of TechCrunch+, said.The problem is that investors don't seem to care much about what Apple is announcing. The lack of truly shocking stuff at the launch is consistent with Apple's previous attitude toward product updates.As of yesterday, Apple shares closed at $155.96, up 0.93%, having already accumulated a 14% decline for the year.Will you choose the new iphone or Apple stock?What do you think about Apple's stock trend this year?Join our topic and post to win tiger coins~