To The Moon

The Fed decision tonight is important, but the market may already have moved beyond the first question. A 25bp hike is now largely priced in, which means the bigger issue is no longer simply “Will the Fed hike?” but “Does this mark the start of another tightening cycle, or is it just a one-off adjustment?” If the Fed raises rates by 25bp as expected, the target range would move higher again, but the market reaction will likely depend much more on the new dot plot and the tone of the press conference than on the headline rate move itself. The reason expectations shifted so quickly is that the latest inflation data have remained uncomfortable while the labor market has not weakened enough to give the Fed much room to ignore it. CPI and PPI both showed renewed price pressure, while payroll gr

U.S. markets showed a striking divergence overnight. As investors worried that calls to slow frontier AI development could eventually cool spending on GPUs, HBM and data centers, semiconductor names came under pressure. At the same time, cybersecurity stocks surged. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler and Fortinet all moved sharply higher. The same “AI risk” narrative was hitting chips while pushing security software into the spotlight. The more important takeaway is not simply that money rotated from hardware into software. The bigger question is whether cybersecurity is becoming a mandatory layer of AI CapEx. Once AI agents start connecting to email, code repositories, databases, CRM systems and payment tools, AI is no longer just reading information. It can call tools, modify files

AI-linked stocks across Asia sold off sharply today. SoftBank, Kioxia, SK hynix, Samsung and TSMC all came under pressure as investors reacted to a growing debate around whether the industry should slow the pace of frontier AI development. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has called for more time to evaluate safety risks before pushing model capabilities much further, while other major AI leaders have also shown support for stronger safeguards. The market’s first reaction is understandable: if even the AI labs themselves are saying “slow down,” does that mean the massive spending on GPUs, HBM, networking and data centers is also about to cool? Tiger thinks the answer may be more complicated. What may slow is the pace of frontier model training, not necessarily the overall demand for AI compute.

The storage sector is getting another major capital-markets catalyst. After SK hynix expanded its U.S. market presence, Japanese memory giant Kioxia is now reportedly planning a U.S. listing through ADSs. The goal is not simply to raise capital. Kioxia already trades in Japan. A U.S. listing would broaden its investor base, improve liquidity, and make the company much easier for global AI-focused funds to compare directly with names like Micron and SanDisk. That is what makes this story interesting. AI is starting to change how the market values storage companies. NVIDIA represents compute. SK hynix and Micron are closely tied to HBM. Kioxia is more exposed to NAND and enterprise SSDs. These are different businesses, but they are all benefiting from the same underlying force: AI data cente

Meta’s latest AI product is meaningfully different from a typical chatbot. Instead of simply answering questions, it is designed to help users actually complete tasks across areas like email, calendars, shopping, payments and travel planning. Compared with another round of “bigger model, higher benchmark” announcements, the more important shift is that Meta is pushing AI from something that talks to users into something that acts for them. That matters especially for Meta because the market’s biggest question is no longer whether the company has serious AI capabilities. The real question is when its massive AI spending starts turning into revenue. Meta has continued to invest heavily in data centers, GPUs and top AI talent, but stronger models alone do not automatically create a new busine

Two AI infrastructure stories are worth watching together today. On one side, Google is locking in power. The company plans to invest at least €13 billion in AI infrastructure in Finland over the next two years and has signed its first long-term nuclear power agreement outside the U.S. Under the deal, Google can purchase up to 50% of the output from one unit at Finland’s Loviisa nuclear plant for 22 years. On the other side, Verizon is locking in fiber. Corning has signed a multibillion-dollar long-term supply agreement with Verizon to provide more than 80 million miles of high-density fiber and connectivity products from 2027 through 2032. At first glance, one story is about nuclear power and the other is about fiber. But they are really answering the same question: Once hyperscalers keep

Weather risks and food prices are starting to flash at the same time. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño is now established and is expected to strengthen over the coming months. Current forecasts suggest the event is highly likely to persist into February 2027 and could reach “very strong” levels by year-end. At almost the same time, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its global food price index rose 1.9% month over month in August. All five major food categories increased. Sugar prices jumped 11.9% in a single month, vegetable oil prices rose for a third consecutive month, and grain prices also continued to strengthen. The key question for markets is no longer whether the weather outlook is deteriorating. It is:Will weather risks turn into

Apple’s most important product event of the year is now just around the corner. The company will hold its fall special event on September 9. This will also be the first major product launch under John Ternus since he took over as CEO on September 1. So this time, the market may be looking at much more than just “what’s new in the next iPhone.” There are four things that really matter: Foldables, AI, pricing, and whether Apple can restart a new upgrade cycle. 1. A foldable iPhone could be the biggest variable The market currently expects Apple to unveil the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and potentially its first foldable iPhone. If that happens, the significance is not simply that Apple is finally entering the foldable market. The bigger question is: Can Apple turn an existing form factor into a new

Tonight’s jobs report will determine the market’s initial reaction, while next Friday’s CPI may determine the Federal Reserve’s final decision. With U.S. markets closed on Monday for Labor Day, stocks will carry this rate uncertainty into a three-day weekend. On September 3, all three major U.S. indexes rallied: the Dow rose 1.18%, the S&P 500 gained 1.06%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.40%. The catalyst was not another corporate earnings release, but a comment from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller: if upcoming data confirms that inflation is cooling, he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September. Markets quickly reduced their rate-hike bets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September hike fell from 63.2% to 50.4% in one day

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ Broadcom delivered record results and raised its fiscal 2027 AI revenue target to $115 billion. However, its fourth-quarter revenue guidance fell about 0.7% short of market expectations—and that small gap still sent the stock down more than 6% at one point after hours. After the market closed on September 2, Broadcom $AVGO reported its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results: Revenue reached $29.591 billion, up 86% year over year and above the $29.36 billion consensus estimate; Adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.32, ahead of the $3.24 estima