To The Moon

Microsoft and Meta reported earnings on the same night. Both are spending heavily on AI infrastructure, both raised or maintained aggressive investment plans, and both delivered strong revenue growth. The market still gave them opposite verdicts. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ rose more than 8% after hours as Azure growth, Copilot adoption and a strong outlook convinced investors that its AI spending is already generating measurable returns. $Meta Platforms(META)$ fell roughly 9% in premarket trading after free cash flow collapsed and capital expenditure remained close to record levels. Meta’s advertising business is still growing quickly, but investors want a clearer answer on how its enormous compute buildout will c

Tonight brings two major market tests at the same time. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. After the U.S. market closes, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Meta Platforms(META)$ will report earnings. (联邦储备系统) One event will shape the valuation investors are willing to pay for growth stocks. The other will determine whether Big Tech’s enormous AI spending can still support those valuations. Put simply: The Fed sets the valuation ceiling. Microsoft and Meta test the AI earnings floor. Test No. 1: The Fed decision The Fed entered this meeting with its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Holding rates steady remains the base case among economi

Three very different technology stories hit the market in the same session. China reportedly began producing domestically developed immersion DUV lithography machines, pressuring ASML and the broader semiconductor-equipment sector. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell about 5% as investors questioned how deeply the chip leader may become financially involved with the companies buying its hardware. Meanwhile, $Apple(AAPL)$ reached a record closing high and reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable listed company. Together, these moves suggest that the market is changing the way it values technology companies. The new questions are becoming clearer: Who controls a critical bottleneck? Who is taking on the financial r

Monday opened with a sharp reversal in the market narrative. Brent crude fell more than 6% toward $90 a barrel, while WTI dropped to around $84.5 after the United States and Iran paused attacks over the weekend. U.S. stock futures moved higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures leading the rebound as investors rotated back toward technology and other rate-sensitive assets. (Reuters) The logic is straightforward: Lower oil → less inflation pressure → lower rate anxiety → breathing room for growth stocks. But this is still a fragile relief trade. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, and attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthis continue to threaten Saudi oil infrastructure and traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The pause in fighting has created room for diplomacy, but it has

Last night’s selloff felt like more than a normal pullback. The Nasdaq fell 2.15%, while the VIX jumped more than 12% to 18.7. $Tesla(TSLA)$ plunged 14.53%, and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ dropped 7.13%. By several market estimates, the Magnificent Seven lost close to $800 billion in market value in a single session. At the same time, Brent crude moved above $100 per barrel and Treasury yields climbed. Two pressures hit growth stocks together: AI return concerns and renewed inflation risk. A week ago, the market was still rewarding companies for spending more aggressively on AI. Now investors are asking a harder question: When will all that spending turn into profit and free cash flow? 1. The capex scare finally a

Alphabet, Tesla and IBM reported earnings on the same night—and together they offered one of the clearest snapshots yet of where the AI spending cycle stands. Google showed that AI infrastructure can already drive explosive cloud growth. Tesla showed how quickly AI, robotaxi and robotics investment can consume cash before those businesses generate meaningful revenue. IBM showed another side of the cycle: corporate customers are prioritizing scarce servers, memory and storage, while some traditional IT projects are being delayed. The market is moving past a simple question—“Who is investing in AI?”—and focusing on something harder: Who can turn AI spending into revenue, margins and free cash flow? Google: AI demand is turning into cloud revenue Alphabet delivered the strongest operating gro

Alphabet will report its second-quarter results on Wednesday after the U.S. market closes. This earnings release matters far beyond $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ itself. TSMC and ASML have already shown that demand for advanced chips and semiconductor equipment remains strong. Google now has to answer the next question in the AI value chain: Can all that spending on chips, servers and data centers turn into cloud revenue, advertising growth and free cash flow? Wall Street currently expects roughly $116.8 billion in Q2 revenue, including about $22.2 billion from Google Cloud. Options markets are pricing in an earnings move of around 5.3%. The first test: Can Google Cloud keep growing above 60%? Google Cloud was Alphabet’s strongest business in the first quart

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ TSMC and ASML have delivered another strong signal for the AI semiconductor cycle. TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of $40.2 billion, a gross margin of 67.7%, and net profit growth of 77.4% year over year. ASML, meanwhile, raised its 2026 revenue outlook from €36 billion–€40 billion to €43 billion–€45 billion, while preparing to expand EUV and immersion DUV capacity again in 2027 and 2028. Together, the two earnings reports confirm that demand for AI chips, advanced process nodes, HBM and semiconductor equipment remains strong. The next question is moving downstream: Can Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazo

$IBM(IBM)$ IBM delivered one of the clearest signals yet that the AI boom is reshaping corporate technology budgets. The company’s shares plunged about 25% after it released preliminary second-quarter results below Wall Street expectations. IBM expects quarterly revenue of roughly $17.2 billion, up only 1% year over year and below the $17.86 billion analysts expected. Adjusted earnings are projected at $2.93 per share, versus the $3.02 consensus estimate. (Reuters) The headline numbers were disappointing, but the explanation was even more important. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said that during the final weeks of June, corporate clients redirected part of their quarterly capital spending toward servers, storage and memory. Customers wante

Korean semiconductor stocks delivered a dramatic V-shaped reversal today. SK hynix fell roughly 9% during the session, then recovered to close about 3.7% higher. Samsung Electronics followed a similar path, moving from an early decline to a gain of around 3.3% by the close. The contrast between the open and the close matters. At the open, the market was still dealing with forced selling, leveraged-position reductions and concerns surrounding SK hynix’s new U.S. ADR. By the close, bargain hunters had stepped in and investors were willing to buy the memory-chip story again. The key question now is: Has the Korean semiconductor market moved past the most dangerous stage of deleveraging? What triggered the selloff? The reversal followed an unusually violent correction. On Monday, SK hynix’s Se