I attended the $BlackRock(BLK)$ Private Equity Summit today, which was quite rewarding. Blackstone's chief economist believes that the Fed's rate cuts will be less frequent and smaller than expected, and that inflation is likely to restart next year, with a new round of rate hikes beginning in October 25.The core of this year's US election is Sweep! To win big! Neither side wants to just win the White House, not a small win but a big win, and both sides are shouting to sweep the White House and Congress!Doing well on the fiscal front is critical. Neither Trump nor Harris has prioritized fiscal discipline, and the US federal deficit is likely to remain around $2.0 trillion per year for the next few years. Whether the deficit situation can be changed

The recent U.S. macroeconomic data is so strong that the Federal Reserve regrets cutting interest rates. [Cute]The latest retail sales data for September and the first two weeks of October show that, driven by solid employment growth, strong wage growth, and high stock and housing prices, U.S. consumers continue to perform well. #KaiFeng Fundamentals#The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the third quarter is currently 3.4%, with the bottom line being that economic expansion continues.Why are the upcoming data so strong? Because the factors favorable to the economy are increasing:The Federal Reserve is dovish.High stock prices, high housing prices, and tight credit spreads.Open public and private financing markets.The CHIPS Act, IRA, Infrastructure Act, and defense spending continue to support

We expect Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to hint that upcoming data supports the FOMC to begin policy normalization as soon as possible, which almost solidifies the expectation of a rate cut in September. Although we believe Powell won't rule out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, he might downplay concerns about the Fed being behind the curve or the U.S. economy deteriorating rapidly. Our base forecast remains a 25 basis point cut. We anticipate that by the end of the year, the Fed will have accumulated a 50 basis point rate cut. However, the risks to this view are becoming more one-sided, with more evident weakness in the labor market potentially challenging the Fed's employment mandate, necessitating further easing.🚶‍♂️ Step Back Before the Rate Cut: Following t

This year is the fastest time I have run in the "Invest in Yourself 5K" for more than ten years, and I finished the run in 30 minutes! It is also the year with the greatest gains in participating in the shareholders' meeting in more than ten years. $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ 1. I met so many new and old friends. Our Omaha Value Investment Center/China-US Venture Capital Forum has been held for the ninth year. Professor Shi Yong [good], Tencent, Sina organized Chinese investors' cocktail reception, CFA Association, Value X BRK and other various cocktail receptions and dinners are all super great!2. Mr. Buffett is still vigorous. This year, we had a marathon-like exchange for

Commercial property owners have thrived in a world of cheap debt, which has made real estate investments relatively attractive. But as interest rates rose, this high led to a predictable reckoning:"The scale of the cyclical resetting in property valuations is as big as the early 1990s or the global financial crisis," said Alex Knapp, chief investment officer for Europe at Hines, a $100 billion global private real estate investor. "This is a big one, if that wasn’t obvious." Many property owners are saddled with unrealized losses. Tom Leahy, executive director at MSCI Research, estimated in September that about 50% of commercial real estate assets in London are now worth less than what they were bought for. New York is doing relatively well, with only one in five in the red, but many office

Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 2-year rate dipping below 5%. Market is calling the Fed bluff.ImageBond yields tend to peak around the time of the last Fed rate hike. I don’t expect any more rate hikes, which is why I turned positive on bonds recently.ImageCorporate earnings are going down. CEOs will talk about new challenges during their Q3 calls.I don’t see any reason for the Fed to hike rate again. If anything, rate cuts are coming for the U.S., Canada, Eurozone, and England…

After Trump reported that he would go to Detroit on September 27 to deliver a speech to the United Auto Workers.US. President Biden announced on social media that he will join members of the United Auto Workers in Detroit on the picket line on Tuesday.Biden likes to call himself the most pro-union president, and visiting striking workers — a highly unusual move for a president — is sure to send a strong message.“On Tuesday, I will be heading to Michigan to join the picket lines in solidarity with the men and women of the UAW as they fight for the value they create,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “Now is the time for a win-win deal , keeping the U.S. auto manufacturing industry thriving through good-paying UAW jobs."Biden to join UAW pickets in Detroit as strike intensifiesUAW President

Insightful speech at @nyuniversity by Dr. Phillip Lane, Chief Economist of @ecb. The inflation is declining, but not likely to get to 2% before 2025. A sharp decline in credit activities in Eurozone is happening due to the banks’ cautious with lending. Very different from US.ImageUS Housing Starts fell 11.3% m/m to 1.283 million, the lowest since June 2020 as 7.5% mortgage rates reduced demand. The Home Affordability Index is the lowest since Bloomberg records began in 1986, and has fallen at the fastest pace on record.The data was last recorded at the end of Q2 when 30 year mortgage rates were 7.15% compared with 7.59% today.

Hello TigersI am the Chief Economist at Horizon Financial Group and haveI have 12 years of experience as a visiting professor at New York College.Below are some of my expected views on the U.S. economy and U.S. equities in the second half of the year.The real impact of Fitch's downgrade of U.S. government bonds on the financial market is not smallIn the short term (3-6 months), there is no hope for an interest rate cut by the FedThank you to the IRA Act to stimulate the return of U.S. manufacturing, it is currently possible NOT THE TIME to predict a recessionIn H223, we are bullish on the oversold sectors of biotech, financial technology, and REITs, which are supported by AI technologyDisclaimer: The views in this article are for communication purposes only and not as direct investment adv