As the year 2024 draws to a close, the global financial market has faced significant challenges and considerable development. At this time of year-end review, I hope to reflect on last year's predictions and provide a framework for global investment in 2025 for discussion and criticism.I remember that more than twenty years ago, when I graduated from the University of Lausanne with a Ph.D. and joined Morgan Stanley on Wall Street, I would learn from the Chief US Economist, Byron Wien, about his top ten global economic predictions for the following year. The intellectual sparring between him and the then Chief Economist, Steven Roach, on macroeconomic issues was immensely beneficial to us.In recent years, major institutions in the United States have been promoting young people, including ma

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ attract my eyes agian.$Sea Ltd(SE)$ stage 2 breakout on deck. 1.5B stock, I like it when it moves.Image $Sea Ltd(SE)$ is transforming the business successfully into a cash flow machine, proving its gaming franchise is evergreen, cementing its e-commerce dominance, and growing its fintech at 20%+ durably. At a $2B free cash flow run rate and a $9B cash pile, the stock is priced for more upside at 21x FCF.Cite from Riyado Sofian: “At $77, rate cuts, Free Fire India relaunch, and margin expansion due to products like advertising, have not been priced in. Trading at only 3x its Revenue, SE stock still has plenty of upside.”- Diversification - Exposure to Asia

Massive retreat of short #Yen trade. Very typical global risk off.Image

Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ has reduced its stake in $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ to less than 5%.The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer's sales volume has increased by 28%, but domestic price competition poses risks. $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ 's new car sales from January to June increased by 28% year-on-year, reaching 1.61 million units.Guangzhou - According to a document submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, Warren Buffett-led Berkshire Hathaway has sold more shares of the Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD. The American investment company has gradually reduced its holdings from about 20% to less than 5%. Berkshire sold 1,395,500 s

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4.Outlook for the Next Steps"Currently, the US economy faces both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short term, inflation in energy, food, real estate, and the service industry continues to rise. The Federal Reserve certainly cannot cut interest rates now, and the earliest possibility would be in June. This year is also an election year in the United States. According to convention, with the election scheduled for early November, the Fed can only stay put in September and October, regardless of whether it's cutting or maintaining interest rates. Any changes in monetary policy during the two months before the election will be labeled as "politicizing monetary policy." As an independent institution authorized by the US Congress, the Fed will never be dragged into political turmoil.

2."Is US Inflation Making a Comeback?"Certainly, the biggest variable regarding interest rate cuts is inflation. This year's inflation data has put the Federal Reserve in a somewhat awkward position. Firstly, energy prices have been steadily rising. Crude oil prices have reached $86, noticeably impacting Americans at the gas station.Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $2300 mark and hitting historic highs, signaling market expectations of further inflation. While the Fed may attribute the rise in oil prices to Middle East tensions, financial markets find this hard to accept. Looking at the real estate market, the overall US housing market price index has risen by about 4% this year, and rents have increased. Consequently, the equivalent rent weight within the CPI is bound to con

Now it's early April, and the eagerly anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, has yet to materialize. There have even been recent remarks from Fed officials suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates. In light of this, let's delve into some in-depth interpretation and analysis.One can reflect on the various optimistic statements in the financial markets since October last year. At that time, analysts from Goldman Sachs predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin an interest rate cut cycle in January of this year. While the consensus on Wall Street wasn't as extreme, there was also a belief that the Fed would initiate an interest rate cut cycle in March of this year.So why hasn't the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acted to cut interest rates yet?1. Recentl

In 2023, all kinds of financial products on a global scale have undergone tremendous challenges. We have also seen many unprecedented financial phenomena. This requires us, as a cross-border financial institution, to carefully observe and meditate. It seems like only yesterday that I was writing about the top ten predictions for 2023, but the year has passed quickly.I remember when I first joined Morgan Stanley to work on Wall Street after graduating with a Ph.D. from the University of Lausanne in Switzerland over two decades ago. Each year-end, we would study the top ten global economic predictions for the coming year by the company's Chief US Economist, Byron Wien. The debates between him and Steven Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist at the time, on macroeconomic topics were immense

China's growth has finally bottomed out, and a rare increase in the deficit this year suggests better prospects for growth in the near term. In 2024, we expect GDP growth of 4.5%, a balance between economic growth and deleveraging, while waiting for more policy signals. While more infrastructure stimulus should mitigate downside risks, sharp structural problems such as underconsumption and debt deleveraging will still take time and more difficult policy decisions to address.Therefore, we do not think that China's foreign exchange and interest rates will shine. If the strong dollar trend continues, the need to restructure debt while keeping domestic interest rates low will continue to limit the exchange rate of RMB. We expect only a mild bull steep rebound in RMB interest rates. With the is

Economic Club of New York welcomes the Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a lunch speech today! He is laser focused on getting inflation down to 2%. He spoke about the stronger than expected consumption and labor market in the U.S. Powell of the Fed Chair: the U.S. economy is much stronger than we expected, given the high interest rate level…ImageImageImageImage

Hello Tigers,This article was jointly written by Kevin Chen, chief economist of Horizon Financial, adjunct professor at New York University, and Cao Huining, professor at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.1. Crude oil, gold and foreign exchange markets On Saturday, October 7, after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil futures opened with a sharp 4.5% gain on Sunday night. However, many fund managers and sell-side analysts on Wall Street generally felt that the crude oil market's response was below expectations.The reaction appears to be lower than before for several reasons:Firstly, crude oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ prices have already risen sharply in September due to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Compared