Hi Tigers, This article mainly focuses on Chinese ADRs with four major risks, two positive perspectives from both China and US market, Long term and shortterm outlooks, when the bear market will ends and how to choose potential winners during recession.Disclamer: The opinions in this article are for exchange only. If you have more questions to this article, welcome to write your comment, Thanks."We're not looking to decouple from China. We're looking to reduce risk and diversify our relationship with China," U.S. President Joe Biden told a news conference after the G7 leaders' summit on Sunday. The G7 group has reached an agreement on China, and Biden has hinted that he may soon meet with the Chinese president.The communication with China and easing of relations are bound to be necessary a

China's growth has finally bottomed out, and a rare increase in the deficit this year suggests better prospects for growth in the near term. In 2024, we expect GDP growth of 4.5%, a balance between economic growth and deleveraging, while waiting for more policy signals. While more infrastructure stimulus should mitigate downside risks, sharp structural problems such as underconsumption and debt deleveraging will still take time and more difficult policy decisions to address.Therefore, we do not think that China's foreign exchange and interest rates will shine. If the strong dollar trend continues, the need to restructure debt while keeping domestic interest rates low will continue to limit the exchange rate of RMB. We expect only a mild bull steep rebound in RMB interest rates. With the is

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ attract my eyes agian.$Sea Ltd(SE)$ stage 2 breakout on deck. 1.5B stock, I like it when it moves.Image $Sea Ltd(SE)$ is transforming the business successfully into a cash flow machine, proving its gaming franchise is evergreen, cementing its e-commerce dominance, and growing its fintech at 20%+ durably. At a $2B free cash flow run rate and a $9B cash pile, the stock is priced for more upside at 21x FCF.Cite from Riyado Sofian: “At $77, rate cuts, Free Fire India relaunch, and margin expansion due to products like advertising, have not been priced in. Trading at only 3x its Revenue, SE stock still has plenty of upside.”- Diversification - Exposure to Asia

4.Outlook for the Next Steps"Currently, the US economy faces both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short term, inflation in energy, food, real estate, and the service industry continues to rise. The Federal Reserve certainly cannot cut interest rates now, and the earliest possibility would be in June. This year is also an election year in the United States. According to convention, with the election scheduled for early November, the Fed can only stay put in September and October, regardless of whether it's cutting or maintaining interest rates. Any changes in monetary policy during the two months before the election will be labeled as "politicizing monetary policy." As an independent institution authorized by the US Congress, the Fed will never be dragged into political turmoil.

In 2023, all kinds of financial products on a global scale have undergone tremendous challenges. We have also seen many unprecedented financial phenomena. This requires us, as a cross-border financial institution, to carefully observe and meditate. It seems like only yesterday that I was writing about the top ten predictions for 2023, but the year has passed quickly.I remember when I first joined Morgan Stanley to work on Wall Street after graduating with a Ph.D. from the University of Lausanne in Switzerland over two decades ago. Each year-end, we would study the top ten global economic predictions for the coming year by the company's Chief US Economist, Byron Wien. The debates between him and Steven Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist at the time, on macroeconomic topics were immense

2."Is US Inflation Making a Comeback?"Certainly, the biggest variable regarding interest rate cuts is inflation. This year's inflation data has put the Federal Reserve in a somewhat awkward position. Firstly, energy prices have been steadily rising. Crude oil prices have reached $86, noticeably impacting Americans at the gas station.Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $2300 mark and hitting historic highs, signaling market expectations of further inflation. While the Fed may attribute the rise in oil prices to Middle East tensions, financial markets find this hard to accept. Looking at the real estate market, the overall US housing market price index has risen by about 4% this year, and rents have increased. Consequently, the equivalent rent weight within the CPI is bound to con

Buffett won again? The U.S. court approved Microsoft’s acquisition of $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$ , and $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$ jumped more than 10% on Wednesday. The market expects $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ to earn $1 billion in profits!On Tuesday, July 11th, Eastern Time, according to Bloomberg, a San Francisco federal court judge ruled that $Microsoft(MSFT)$ can advance the acquisition of $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$ , which means that the US court agreed to the acquisition and also indicated that the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is trying to block the acquisition.

Buffett made a move, and $3.3 billion increased the energy concept again! Why he likes energy assets this much?On Monday, July 10, Eastern Time, according to Reuters, Buffett’s $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ Energy Company (BHE GT&S) announced that it had signed an agreement to purchase 50% of limited partnership shares of the Cove Point liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas business held by Dominion Energy .According to regulatory filings, Total transaction value of $3.5 billion, including transaction price ($3.3 billion) and expected proceeds from termination of related interest rate derivatives (approximately $200 million), approximately 50% non-controlling interest held by Dominion Energy 2025 projected EBITDA 10.8 times of US$32

The VR announced by $Apple(AAPL)$ today is really powerful, with 5,000 patents and a price of $3,500 US, which beats the products of $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ .After a roughly 30-minute demo demonstrating major features that weren't quite ready to test, I'm convinced Apple has made a real leap forward in the capabilities and execution of the XR -- or mixed reality with its new Apple Vision Pro.To be very clear, I'm not saying it delivers on all of its promises, is a truly new computing paradigm, or any of the other strong claims Apple hopes to deliver upon launch. I'm going to need more time to use the device than a guided demo.However, I'

The first week of June is the National Real Estate Week, and Huisheng Financial was invited to participate in the National REIT Conference again.More than 300 REITs (Real Estate Trust Funds) and leading companies covering various subdivisions of the global real estate industry came to participate in the conference.The National REIT Association was born in September 1960, when US President Eisenhower signed a decree establishing the real estate trust fund industry. The day after he signed the law, the National REIT Association was established in Washington and began its annual meeting in New York.This meeting should be the 63rd annual meeting, comparable to the history of Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. Of course, unlike the general meeting of shareholders, which is fr

Hello Tigers,This article was jointly written by Kevin Chen, chief economist of Horizon Financial, adjunct professor at New York University, and Cao Huining, professor at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.1. Crude oil, gold and foreign exchange markets On Saturday, October 7, after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil futures opened with a sharp 4.5% gain on Sunday night. However, many fund managers and sell-side analysts on Wall Street generally felt that the crude oil market's response was below expectations.The reaction appears to be lower than before for several reasons:Firstly, crude oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ prices have already risen sharply in September due to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Compared

Economic Club of New York welcomes the Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a lunch speech today! He is laser focused on getting inflation down to 2%. He spoke about the stronger than expected consumption and labor market in the U.S. Powell of the Fed Chair: the U.S. economy is much stronger than we expected, given the high interest rate level…ImageImageImageImage