Following the previous week's focus on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, the markets are now turning their attention to companies' quarterly reports. It is also high season for dividend payments.   6 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The stock markets have experienced a rollercoaster of emotions over the past week, particularly with regard to interest rate hopes. After the US Federal Reserve rejected an imminent easing of key interest rates in the middle of the week, the labor market report on Friday reignited speculation about falling interest rates. Both the S&P 500 (+1.3 percent) and the Nasdaq 100 (+2.0 percent) were then able to recoup their previous losses and end the week in positive territory The DAX, on the other hand, closed at 18,001 poi

The main factor still weighing on sentiment is the direction of US interest rates. The negative mood reflects the adjustment to their portfolios investors still need to (reluctantly) make from their original forecast of where they would be at year-end. For Wall Street, where newness is a constant demand, the lack of movement so far in 2024, marks it as an especially portentous year. Last week’s US economic data releases did not answer any questions for investors. In fact, it may have raised their anxiety levels about the timing of the first rate cut (if any). April marked the 27th consecutive month with the unemployment rate remaining below 4%, equaling the longest period of such low rates since the 1960s. The proportion of employed individuals in their prime working years, aged 25 to 54,

The prospect of a further delay in lower interest rates is supporting the gold price, Blumenroth summarises the week.   3 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Xetra-Gold). A week in which gold initially suffered from both rising US government bond yields and profit-taking. In addition, few weeks this year are likely to be as full of economic data as this one. And this is despite the public holiday in Central Europe yesterday and the public holidays in China and elsewhere that follow. Let's stay in Europe for now: according to the first estimate for gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2024, there are signs of positive economic development in Germany and the eurozone - this grew more strongly than analysts had expected on average. As the core inflation rate in the eurozone, adjuste

The USA in particular appears to be convincing at the moment - both in the equity and bond sectors. The influx into tech and AI stocks is also continuing, although some ETFs are also seeing outflows. Still in demand: Gold ETCs. “   30 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). ETF purchases already continued in the falling markets, and even more so in the rising markets since last week. Frank Mohr from Société Générale continues to see more buying than selling. “However, the buying overhang is shrinking,” he observes. The strong concentration on the USA is currently striking: “US equities account for 40 percent of our turnover and are therefore well ahead of the MSCI World equities, which are otherwise equally strong in terms of turnover.” Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank also

After four weeks of weakness, the mood has turned, with many company reports being too convincing. The further course of the reporting season and, of course, the actions of the central bankers will now be decisive. 29 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Although there are no longer any hopes of an interest rate cut in the US in the near future, the reporting season shows that most companies are doing well. The phase of weakness on the stock market that has persisted since the end of March therefore appears to be over. The DAX stood at x points on Monday morning after closing at 18,161 points on Friday. Alphabet and Microsoft surprised positively with their quarterly figures on Friday and drove the tech sector upwards.  According to Robert Halver of Baader Bank, the recent pr

Investor sentiment weakened further last week with four out of the ten markets we follow ending the week in a bearish mood. Investors in China continue to be the exception, turning bullish for the first time since January and providing support for the recent market run. Global Emerging markets and Asia ex-Japan markets have followed China higher, but sentiment among those investors has declined from bullish two weeks ago to neutral now on worries about the ongoing impact of high US interest rates and the strong USD on corporate borrowers. Japanese investors have now become bearish for the second time this month, shaving 5% off the (25%) market rally that started in November last year. Similarly, sentiment among UK investors has also become somewhat unhorsed last week, dropping from bullish

Investors are acknowledging the brief dip with purchases. Joachim Goldberg knows whether this could pose a threat to the bull market. Summary Many professionals reacted to the rapid recovery after the price dip by buying shares, having previously been both short and neutral. The sentiment index for this group jumped by 20 points to +13. Joachim Goldberg assumes that sufficient profits were taken. Private investors moved in the same direction, with a sentiment index of +10 points. The behavioral economist points out that optimism is at a high level in relative terms, fortunately we cannot speak of extreme values. However, he suspects book profits by older bulls, which could be realized from 18,280/330. On the other hand, the good mood could soon be over again. 24 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Gold

Despite some heavy price losses, including in the tech sector, the ETF market is stable. Some traders are seeing a selling overhang, but most are seeing more buying. Bitcoin and gold price trackers continue to see a lot of activity - in both directions.   23 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The sustained price losses since the end of March have now caused at least some people to get cold feet. The first are selling their investments. "With share indices falling significantly, we had around 15 percent more sales than purchases - with noticeably higher turnover," reports Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank. Leo Puschmann from Lang & Schwarz only saw individual profit-taking, for example on Friday when the Nvidia share price slipped sharply. "Overall, however, purchases pre

Investor sentiment fell sharply last week led by US investors who turned bearish on the twin disappointments of fading hopes for a Fed rate cut and increased tensions in the Middle East. The only market not to suffer a decline in sentiment last week was China where positive economic data continues to support the narrative that the economy may have bottomed out. Elsewhere, the sudden decline in sentiment came from the same risk aversion fund from which investors commonly draw when faced with an uncertain world with no concrete connect-the-dot justification for its sudden randomness. Tensions in the Middle East: With a characteristically straightforward if counterproductive approach to resolving a conflict, tensions between Israel and Iran have entered previously untested territory (terra c

Pessimists have turned into demanders: clear change in sentiment among institutional investors  Summary At least for institutional investors, neither inflation fears nor the threatening developments in the Middle East played a major role in their recent decisions. Despite these event risks, their previously negative sentiment - as measured by the Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index - has improved significantly compared to the previous week, even though the DAX lost around 2.1% on the week. There is much to suggest that the desire to rid oneself of "old burdens" was the main reason for this. However, we are observing a significant deterioration in sentiment among private investors. All in all, the conditions for a significant DAX rebound are not particularly favorable, according to Joachim

Despite the widening correction, the majority of equity ETFs are still being bought. Profit-taking predominates in gold ETCs. There has been a clear favorite in the thematic ETF segment for months.   16 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Turnover has settled at a normal level," notes Frank Mohr from Société Générale. The trader finds it interesting that the number of buyers continues to predominate in the current environment. A trend confirmed by Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank: "Although the stock markets were weaker again last week, we saw around 50 percent more buying than selling with reduced turnover. European ETFs accounted for the lion's share this time. Investors once again focused on country indices such as the DAX or the FTSE 250 (DE000A2QP331 , IE00BKX55Q28). At

Investor sentiment ended last week unchanged across all the markets we follow except in Asia ex-Japan where sentiment turned bullish from positive the previous week. Investors have now turned bullish in three markets, Asia ex-Japan, Global Emerging Markets, and the UK, the latter on better-than-expected GDP numbers suggesting their economy may have bottomed out. But while it is nice to feel bullish, it is worth considering whether feeling bullish and being bullish are actually the same thing. After sharp consecutive drops in the US last week, Asia ex-Japan markets reacted in kind, not out of sympathy so much as like being scalded while in the shower because one of the neighbors on your floor just flushed their toilet. The lack of change in sentiment over the past several weeks reflects the