Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: Focus will be on speeches by several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. On the macro side, services and manufacturing PMI data. Europe: Bank of England interest rate decision; UK May inflation, retail sales and consumer confidence. Eurozone, France, Germany and UK PMI data. APAC: Japan inflation; PMI data for Japan and Australia. Global: The lack of synchronization across major economies and the ongoing hawkishness of central banks is keeping uncertainty levels elevated. The counteroffensives underway in Ukraine could also present a geopolitical roadblock to the recent market rally. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor se

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: Federal Reserve’s bank stress test results, consumer spending data, PCE price index. Europe: Inflation releases for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and the ECB Forum on Central Banking (will include Fed Chairman Powell). APAC: China Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s industrial production and retail sales data. Global: Any new development in the war in Ukraine and the Russian infighting, and its impact on energy prices. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to decline in all markets we track except in the UK, where investors remained bullish and, in the US, where sentiment became strongly positive but failed to turn bullish for the s

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: Earnings reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, Johnson & Johnson, Philip Morris International and American Express. On the macro side, investors will get retail sales, industrial production and housing data. Europe: UK inflation and retail sales. APAC: China Q2 GDP growth rate, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investments; Japan inflation; Australia retail sales. Global: Q2 earnings reports, forward guidance and the strength (or lack thereof) of the world’s second-largest economy. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to decline last week across all markets we follow, ending

Summary of the Impacts of Releases 24 October 2022 – 4 November 2022 Impact of Economic Releases: The major economic releases of this week include GDP and Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Europe Political movements along with activities from the Central Banks in Europe has caused a rally in the stock markets as earning reports from companies are offsetting the gloomy economy outlook Rishi Sunak has been appointed the new leader of the U.K’s conservative party making him the new British Prime Minister; On 25th October (Tuesday), in the British Prime Minister’s first address to the nation he pledged to lead the country out of its economy slump and will do all he can to build a stronger economy Following the announcement of the newly appointed British Prime Minister, the sterling

Investor sentiment declined last week in all markets we follow except China, where investors returned from a week-long holiday to the sound of “further stimulus is coming”, boosting their mood from neutral to positive. Sentiment in the UK also bucked the trend by remaining neutral. Elsewhere, investors turned bearish in Global developed markets, Global developed ex-US markets, and Europe. Sentiment ended the week very negative in the US and Japan, just a couple of points shy of bearish. Sentiment in Australia has also declined, reverting to neutral from positive the previous week. Investor sentiment is affected by two things: market volatility (how big their returns can be), and uncertainty (how hard it is to predict the sign of those returns). Two weeks ago, volatility was low and uncerta

Worries about tightening gas supplies in Russia and weak economic outlook weighed on investors’ minds as European shares fell to its lowest in nearly a month; Eurozone business activities contracted along with consumers cutting spending; European equities see longest weekly outflow streak Comparing with the previous week, the EURO STOXX 50 Index was down 3.4% to 3,603.68 points, the DAX Index was down 4.2% to 12,971.47 points, and the SMI Index was down 1.9% at 10,942.16 points Russia announced a halt in natural gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline; This will further disrupt the economy of Germany which is highly dependent on Russian gas supply for this coming winter Global economy is increasingly at risk from sliding into recession as the Russia’s invasion on Ukraine and Chin

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: June inflation report, followed by speeches from several Fed officials. Q2 earning results from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, BlackRock and UnitedHealth Group. Europe: final inflation readings for Germany, Spain and France; ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator for Germany; Eurozone industrial production and trade balance. APAC: China trade balance, housing prices and June inflation report. Global: Update from corporates on the impact on profit margins from the prolonged restrictive monetary policy, and ongoing developments in the war in Ukraine. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment fell another notch last week in all m

Investor sentiment saw a late week rebound in all markets we follow, except in Japan and global ex-US markets where it remained unchanged (China was closed on Friday). Concerns about the slowing global economy were made worse in the last two weeks, by worries about a potential US government lockdown and slowing Chinese manufacturing activity. Both concerns seem to have been avoided over the weekend with a last-minute deal for a continuing resolution in the US, funding the government until mid-November, and better than expected PMI data in China. While the Chinese market will remain closed for most of this week in celebration of the Golden Week festivities, we can expect sentiment to continue to recover across all other markets. Except for Japan (up) and the UK (flat), August and September

Monthly Updates In June, global equity markets saw a relatively positive trend with optimism from the U.S. debt ceiling deal, easing inflation data and the subsequent tailwind from Wall Street stocks; European equities market rallied, with the DAX Index up 3.09% to 16,147.90 points, the EURO STOXX 50 Index up 4.29% to 4,399.09 points, and the SMI Index up 0.56% to 11,280.29 points Germany’s DAX Index and the EURO STOXX 50 Index benefitted from the European automobile sector gains, as seen in a 19.1% jump in the STOXX Global 1800 Automobiles & Parts Index in June; in specific, automobile is the DAX Index’s second-largest sector allocation. The EURO STOXX 50 Index was also driven by valuation; it was significantly undervalued with a P/E ratio of 13.99 as compared to S&P 500 with a P/

Investor sentiment declined last week across all markets we monitor as investors globally reassess the implications of a second Trump presidency for everything from the strength of the USD, monetary policy, global trade, and their own markets. Only investors in Australia and Japan managed to maintain their recent optimism, though without further gains. The weakening Yen against the US dollar and the perception that Japan will benefit from the US’s trade policy of decoupling supply chains from China under the Trump administration continue to boost sentiment among Japanese investors. Sentiment in other markets ended the week in neutral, with only investors in the UK and Global Developed ex-US maintaining a positive outlook. In contrast, sentiment in China resumed its downward trend, weighed