Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: Focus will be on speeches by several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. On the macro side, services and manufacturing PMI data. Europe: Bank of England interest rate decision; UK May inflation, retail sales and consumer confidence. Eurozone, France, Germany and UK PMI data. APAC: Japan inflation; PMI data for Japan and Australia. Global: The lack of synchronization across major economies and the ongoing hawkishness of central banks is keeping uncertainty levels elevated. The counteroffensives underway in Ukraine could also present a geopolitical roadblock to the recent market rally. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: Federal Reserve’s bank stress test results, consumer spending data, PCE price index. Europe: Inflation releases for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and the ECB Forum on Central Banking (will include Fed Chairman Powell). APAC: China Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s industrial production and retail sales data. Global: Any new development in the war in Ukraine and the Russian infighting, and its impact on energy prices. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to decline in all markets we track except in the UK, where investors remained bullish and, in the US, where sentiment became strongly positive but failed to turn bullish for the

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: Earnings reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, Johnson & Johnson, Philip Morris International and American Express. On the macro side, investors will get retail sales, industrial production and housing data. Europe: UK inflation and retail sales. APAC: China Q2 GDP growth rate, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investments; Japan inflation; Australia retail sales. Global: Q2 earnings reports, forward guidance and the strength (or lack thereof) of the world’s second-largest economy. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to decline last week across all markets we follow, endin

Summary of the Impacts of Releases 24 October 2022 – 4 November 2022 Impact of Economic Releases: The major economic releases of this week include GDP and Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Europe Political movements along with activities from the Central Banks in Europe has caused a rally in the stock markets as earning reports from companies are offsetting the gloomy economy outlook Rishi Sunak has been appointed the new leader of the U.K’s conservative party making him the new British Prime Minister; On 25th October (Tuesday), in the British Prime Minister’s first address to the nation he pledged to lead the country out of its economy slump and will do all he can to build a stronger economy Following the announcement of the newly appointed British Prime Minister, the sterlin

Investor sentiment declined last week in all markets we follow except China, where investors returned from a week-long holiday to the sound of “further stimulus is coming”, boosting their mood from neutral to positive. Sentiment in the UK also bucked the trend by remaining neutral. Elsewhere, investors turned bearish in Global developed markets, Global developed ex-US markets, and Europe. Sentiment ended the week very negative in the US and Japan, just a couple of points shy of bearish. Sentiment in Australia has also declined, reverting to neutral from positive the previous week. Investor sentiment is affected by two things: market volatility (how big their returns can be), and uncertainty (how hard it is to predict the sign of those returns). Two weeks ago, volatility was low and uncerta

Worries about tightening gas supplies in Russia and weak economic outlook weighed on investors’ minds as European shares fell to its lowest in nearly a month; Eurozone business activities contracted along with consumers cutting spending; European equities see longest weekly outflow streak Comparing with the previous week, the EURO STOXX 50 Index was down 3.4% to 3,603.68 points, the DAX Index was down 4.2% to 12,971.47 points, and the SMI Index was down 1.9% at 10,942.16 points Russia announced a halt in natural gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline; This will further disrupt the economy of Germany which is highly dependent on Russian gas supply for this coming winter Global economy is increasingly at risk from sliding into recession as the Russia’s invasion on Ukraine and Chin

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: June inflation report, followed by speeches from several Fed officials. Q2 earning results from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, BlackRock and UnitedHealth Group. Europe: final inflation readings for Germany, Spain and France; ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator for Germany; Eurozone industrial production and trade balance. APAC: China trade balance, housing prices and June inflation report. Global: Update from corporates on the impact on profit margins from the prolonged restrictive monetary policy, and ongoing developments in the war in Ukraine. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment fell another notch last week in all

Investor sentiment saw a late week rebound in all markets we follow, except in Japan and global ex-US markets where it remained unchanged (China was closed on Friday). Concerns about the slowing global economy were made worse in the last two weeks, by worries about a potential US government lockdown and slowing Chinese manufacturing activity. Both concerns seem to have been avoided over the weekend with a last-minute deal for a continuing resolution in the US, funding the government until mid-November, and better than expected PMI data in China. While the Chinese market will remain closed for most of this week in celebration of the Golden Week festivities, we can expect sentiment to continue to recover across all other markets. Except for Japan (up) and the UK (flat), August and September

Monthly Updates In June, global equity markets saw a relatively positive trend with optimism from the U.S. debt ceiling deal, easing inflation data and the subsequent tailwind from Wall Street stocks; European equities market rallied, with the DAX Index up 3.09% to 16,147.90 points, the EURO STOXX 50 Index up 4.29% to 4,399.09 points, and the SMI Index up 0.56% to 11,280.29 points Germany’s DAX Index and the EURO STOXX 50 Index benefitted from the European automobile sector gains, as seen in a 19.1% jump in the STOXX Global 1800 Automobiles & Parts Index in June; in specific, automobile is the DAX Index’s second-largest sector allocation. The EURO STOXX 50 Index was also driven by valuation; it was significantly undervalued with a P/E ratio of 13.99 as compared to S&P 500 with a P

European shares fell as recession warnings from major global financial institutions and bets of a large interest rate hike from U.S Fed next week knocked sentiment; Global economy may be inching toward a recession with central banks aggressive methods in tackling sticky inflation and the effects of the synchronized tightening of policies could lead to compounding effects of a steeper-than-expected slowdown in global growth, said The World Bank on Thursday Eurozone inflation hit record high of 9.1% in August on Friday, driven by higher energy and food prices and is likely headed toward double digits in October; CPI in the 19 countries using the euro rose 0.6% MoM and 9.1% YoY, the highest rate since the euro was created in 1999; German business confidence slumps worst than expected in Septe

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week1: US: FOMC minutes, manufacturing and services PMI, factory orders, foreign trade data, June jobs report. Europe: Eurozone producer prices and retail sales; Germany’s industrial production, factory orders. APAC: China services and manufacturing PMI data; Japan’s Tankan Manufacturers Index; interest rate decision in Australia. Global: Central banks in the US, Europe and Australia continue to forecast higher interest rates in the near term, pushing back the pivot theory to 2024 at the earliest. Insights from last week’s changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to ease last week, settling into the neutral zone ahead of the Q2 2023 earnings reporting season. The only exception

Summary of the Impacts of Releases22 August 2022 – 02 September 2022Impact of Economic Releases: The major economic releases of this week include the CPI figures from United Kingdom, PPI figures from Germany, and GDP figures from Eurozone.Europe Europe showed mixed signs on its economic outlook this week; Shares have plunged from last week, with natural gas supply jeopardized again, The Euro dropped below U.S. dollar, while economic indicators of some European countries partly eased inflationary concerns On Monday (22 Aug), the Euro dropped to 0.9928 against U.S. dollar – below the record low of 0.9952 during July; Analysts at Morgan Stanley claimed that the currency will fall to 0.97 this quarter, backing up with Fed’s continuous rate hike movement and distur

Summary of the Impacts of Releases19 September 2022 – 23 September 2022Impact of Economic Releases:The major economic releases of this week include the PPI in Germany and the FOMC Rate Decision in the United States.Europe In the last week, interest rates around the globe has taken a hike again causing prices to across the stock markets and bond prices to fall; The Bank of England hiked interest rates by 50 bps to 2.25%, the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 75 bps to 0.5%, and Norway raised by 50 bps to 2.25% The hawkish Fed has impacted the Europe by delivering yet another super-sized interest rate hike which has caused many of the European stock index futures to fall on Thursday shortly after its announcement Bond yields from multiple Eurozone countries hit record hi

Summary of the Impacts of Releases13 June 2022 – 17 June 2022Impact of Economic Releases:The major economic releases of this week include the unemployment figures from the UK, PPI figures from the US and UK, and CPI figures from Eurozone and UK. Additionally, Bank of England raised its base rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% and the U.S Federal Reserve raised by 75 basis points. Europe Following on last week’s U.S. CPI release which stands at 8.6% YoY, global indices entered the bear market as fears of recession grows; While central banks take to hiking interest rates to control inflation, investors fear that this may possibly slow growth and stunt corporate earnings Italian Prime Minister and former ECB president, Mario Draghi says that the ECB increasing interest rates is unavoidable,

Market HighlightsMarket NewsTrading Volume Update: Weekly average volume in EURO STOXX 50® Index Futures reached 2,399,153 lots (EUR 170.6 billion notional) over the past 5 days with a weekly high of 5,068,039 contracts (EUR 363.2 billion notional) on Tuesday (September 13, 2022). Weekly average volume in DAX Futures stood at 116,605 contracts (EUR 75.9 billion notional). Whereas for Mini-DAX futures, weekly average volume stood at 48,281 contracts (EUR 6.3 billion notional).German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to sign contracts for liquefied natural gas during his visit to the United Arab Emirates on Sunday (18 Sep) as Germany looks for new partners to replace Russian energy importsNews Link: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-sign-lng-contracts-uae-german-econo

Summary of the Impacts of Releases05 September 2022 – 16 September 2022Impact of Economic Releases:The major economic releases of this week include the GDP in Eurozone,deposit rate and refinancing rate in Eurozone.Europe: The ECB raised 75 basis points on Thursday (08 Sep), lifting the bank’s benchmark deposit rate from zero to 0.75%; This is the second continuous rate hike from the central bank amidst of possible stagflation driven from aggressive rise in price level and recessionary concern due to energy shortage This decision also came out at a time of weakening Euro, hitting 20 year-low against dollar; The Euro slightly jumped after the rate hike was released but slipped during Lagarde’s press conference New PM of U.K. Liz Truss announced a 100-billion-pound energy price

Author: Olivier d'Assier, Qontigo Global Summary: Investor sentiment continued to ease last week, settling into the neutral zone ahead of the Q2 2023 earnings reporting season. The only exception was in the US, where investors ended last week bullish, encouraged by the sustained decline in inflation and a resilient economy. Sentiment among global emerging-markets investors continued to decline, ending the week bearish for the first time since April. Meanwhile, investors in China pared down their pessimism about the weakness of the country’s economy, ending the week neutral ahead of expected stimulus measures by the authorities. Overall, the US market continues to present the best case for an extension to the recent rally. The case for Europe is neutral, the one for Japan is weakening, and

Second week of losses for stocks around the world were recorded as Fed policymakers revealed expectations of rise in short-term interest rates in coming months; Along with the sharp increase in interest rates, European shares fell for the second consecutive week Comparing with the previous week, the EURO STOXX 50 Index was down 4.3% to 3,348.60 points, the DAX Index was down 3.6% to 12,284.19 points, and the SMI Index was down 4.5% at 10,137.78 points All eyes were on the Fed policy meeting held on Wednesday with the meeting concluding with its third consecutive 75-basis-point hike rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.25%, its highest since March 2008; The delivery of yet another super-sized hike by the hawkish Fed has impacted Europe, leading to the fall of many European stock index f

Market MovementsMarket HighlightsMarket NewsTrading Volume Update: Weekly average volume in EURO STOXX 50® Index Futures reached 899,031 lots (EUR 62.8 billion notional) over the past 5 days with a weekly high of 1,018,892 contracts (EUR 70.0 billion notional) on Thursday (June 23, 2022). Weekly average volume in DAX Futures stood at 62,527 contracts (EUR 41.0 billion notional). Whereas for Mini-DAX futures, weekly average volume stood at 46,580 contracts (EUR 6.1 billion notional). The World Bank has ramped up its calls for changes in sovereign debt laws, so governments have more control when crises strike. World Bank economists estimate that low- and middle-income economies owe a record $9.3 trillion to foreign creditors and that 40 poor countries, and about half a dozen middle income on

Summary of the Impacts of Releases29 August 2022 – 09 September 2022Impact of Economic Releases:The major economic releases of this week include the CPI figures from Germany and Eurozone, and PPI figures from Eurozone.Europe:  The Eurozone continues to face risk of recession as data shows negative sentiments about the market, with Germany CPI figures released higher than expected (Surveyed 7.8% v Actual 7.9%), consumers are cutting their spendings which further pushes the economy to the brink of recession Furthermore, the S&P Global Final manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 in August from July’s 49.8 which is a sign of contraction in the economy; At the same time, the ECB is looking to raise the interest rates to control the inflation rate which is running at 9.1%; Go