The high prices on the stock markets are not deterring ETF purchases. Alongside the major indices, tech stocks remain favorites. Also popular: Indian shares. Crypto ETF trading is also still very busy. 28 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The buying mood in ETF trading continues. “We are seeing good turnover in the major indices such as the S&P 500, DAX and Nasdaq. These are mostly purchases,” explains Leo Puschmann from Lang & Schwarz. Jan Duisberg from ICF Bank is registering a lot of buying interest in US equities. At 18,831 points on Tuesday afternoon, the DAX is only just below its all-time high of 18,892.90 points. The US stock markets are also still close to their highs. According to Duisberg, the Invesco S&P 500 (IE00B3YCGJ38) is often on the shopping lists. M

We note that investors in Global Developed ex-US markets, Europe, and the UK remain in denial with markets rising while sentiment declines further. All three have a very negative supply-and-demand balance for risk with high levels of risk aversion and low levels of risk tolerance which increases the probability of a downside risk overreaction in the event of an unforeseen rise in volatility. Minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed that the Fed wasn’t ready to cut interest rates just yet; expressing this thought was the most consequence-free (no change was expected) consequential (the Dow lost 200 points) action they could have taken. Expectations for rate cuts have been reduced to one now (from six at the start of the year) and its timing to the November meeting (from March at the start of

Many institutional investors who were still hesitant in the previous week have now turned their backs on the DAX.  Summary Today's sentiment survey has brought to light what at least a large proportion of institutional investors have had on their agenda for some time. While the previous week saw a record level of neutral sentiment (45% of those surveyed were neutral), this group has now returned to a normal level in favor of a clearly bearish majority. It seems that just a week ago, some investors did not want to leave the bull party too quickly, but in the meantime many have gone home and, with their exit, have for the time being rejected the continuation of the DAX uptrend.  22 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). After all, the DAX managed to produce a new all-t

The persistently high levels on the stock markets continue to attract investors to equity ETFs. Interest in dividend index funds is also high. Also strong in terms of turnover: commodity ETCs and crypto ETNs. 21 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). New all-time highs in the DAX, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stimulate ETF trading. Frank Mohr from Société Générale reports a good week - with a clear buying overhang. Jan Duisberg from ICF Bank reports “stable turnover at a high level”. The DAX set a new record high last Wednesday, the Dow Jones climbed above 40,000 points for the first time last Thursday and the Nasdaq 100 reached a new high yesterday, Monday. At Société Générale, most of the focus is on US (IE00B3XXRP09, IE00B6YX5C33) and global trackers. “In the case of MSCI World ETFs, the middle

The biggest improvement in sentiment was among US investors, where it now looks like the beat down of April was just a build up for May. For a decade and a half, quantitative easing has lived in that neighborhood of investors’ collective consciousness called Ubiquitous, at times displacing valuation and profitability. Central banks have been perceived as a reliable safety net, poised to intervene when needed. However, the current economic landscape does not call for such intervention. The stock market and corporations, with earnings growth of 8.4% according to Bloomberg, have outpaced expectations, and are not in need of rescue. Investors will need to learn that ubiquity does not connote a timeless classic and that while inflation may now matter less to lots of them, it still matters lots

While many professionals are moving to the sidelines, private investors are reacting to the relatively high share prices with short positions. This creates potential for further price gains. Summary Around the all-time high of German blue chips, many professionals have been drawn to the sidelines. 13 percent have sold shares, the majority of whom are out of the market. The situation is different for private investors, with both previously neutral investors and bulls now betting on falling prices. The sentiment indices of both groups fall to -1 and +7 points respectively. Joachim Goldberg attests that private investors are more courageous in the face of short-sellers. However, they were also trading from a more favorable starting position. The fact that local investors are selling into a ri

The current DAX rally has not triggered any new euphoria in the market for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, European equities, which have been neglected for a long time, are moving more into the focus of investors following their recent outperformance. 14 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). “In line with the performance, European ETFs were the most actively traded,” reports Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank. In recent days, the trader has observed continued strong interest in small-cap and mid-cap ETFs, such as those offered by Amundi in the MDAX (FR0011857234) or SDAX (LU2611732475). The iShares MSCI EMU Mid Cap (IE00BCLWRD08) and the Xtrackers MDAX ESG Screened (IE00B9MRJJ36) were also in demand. Overall, even more buys than sells According to the Baader Bank specialist, value E

We note that in defiance of sentiment, markets continued to rise for the fourth consecutive week as (some) investors insist an interest rate cut is imminent in what increasingly feels like an enormous quid for a yet unspoken quo. US monetary policy: This week, the focus is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Tuesday speech and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. It's expected that core inflation will slightly decrease as the high April 2023 monthly increase of 0.468% drops from the annual rate calculation, to be replaced by an estimated 0.3% rise for April 2024, leading to a lower annual inflation rate of 3.56% from the 3.8% previously. Despite this, prevailing market sentiment is quite pessimistic, posing a risk of a downward overreaction should inflation figures unexpec

The DAX is on the verge of an all-time high, but many investors remain cautious.  Summary Since our sentiment survey 14 days ago, the stock markets have been on something of a rollercoaster ride. The DAX, still weak at the beginning, fell by 2.2% at times, only to rally by around 4% afterwards. Institutional investors in particular seem unimpressed by this, as the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Sentiment Index has remained unchanged. However, there has probably been much more activity behind the scenes than some investors would have liked, as both bulls and bears have increasingly retreated to the same extent. In the end, we find a large proportion of neutral institutional investors, and at a high for the year. Joachim Goldberg still does not expect the bulls, who are still in the majority,

Inflows into broadly diversified equity ETFs are continuing - albeit at a lower level. Shares in gold and copper producers are doing very well. Some are taking profits on tech stocks. 7 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). ETFs continue to enjoy great popularity. “We had more than twice as many buys as sells,” explains Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank, looking back on the past week. Fabian Wörndl from Lang & Schwarz also sees continued buying, especially in the major indices such as the MSCI World and S&P 500. However, things are quieter due to the holidays. Heinrich speaks of another decline in turnover. “We are seeing significantly less trading volume,” reports Ivo Orlemann from ICF Bank. The stock markets have been able to catch up again after the recent setback. At midda

Following the previous week's focus on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, the markets are now turning their attention to companies' quarterly reports. It is also high season for dividend payments.   6 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The stock markets have experienced a rollercoaster of emotions over the past week, particularly with regard to interest rate hopes. After the US Federal Reserve rejected an imminent easing of key interest rates in the middle of the week, the labor market report on Friday reignited speculation about falling interest rates. Both the S&P 500 (+1.3 percent) and the Nasdaq 100 (+2.0 percent) were then able to recoup their previous losses and end the week in positive territory The DAX, on the other hand, closed at 18,001 poi

The main factor still weighing on sentiment is the direction of US interest rates. The negative mood reflects the adjustment to their portfolios investors still need to (reluctantly) make from their original forecast of where they would be at year-end. For Wall Street, where newness is a constant demand, the lack of movement so far in 2024, marks it as an especially portentous year. Last week’s US economic data releases did not answer any questions for investors. In fact, it may have raised their anxiety levels about the timing of the first rate cut (if any). April marked the 27th consecutive month with the unemployment rate remaining below 4%, equaling the longest period of such low rates since the 1960s. The proportion of employed individuals in their prime working years, aged 25 to 54,