The nature of markets is change, and the nature of investors caught in a bubble is denial. Last week, Jamie Dimon’s cockroaches got a plus‑one: Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon joined him in pushing back against the notion that ‘this time is different’ in credit, reminding investors that private credit didn’t escape the cycle — it just locked the exits. Recent tremors are a warning shot, not an anomaly. Redemption pressure, underwriting doubts, and JPMorgan’s tighter lending all signal that risk is re‑pricing — exactly what happens when a cycle turns after years of private credit firms quietly mainlining software loans during the easy‑money era. Sentiment isn’t static; it moves through like a storm system, and when it gains enough force, it drives markets into overshoot — bullish or bearish. I

After two weeks of trying to pick stocks through a thick fog of war — glued to news feeds, eating “al desco” (not a word, I’m aware), and attempting to work out what’s what — investors are finding themselves yearning less for the record‑setting markets that preceded Operation Epic Folly and more for calmer ones. The rallies aren’t as high, but the drawdowns aren’t as low either. And with the war in Iran now entering its third week — and the uncertainty it casts over the global economy stretching further — many see that as a healthy trade‑off. They don’t really miss flying high. Being a bird isn’t all sunshine and pooping from high places. Investor sentiment stayed bearish last week in eight of the ten markets we track, and UK investors, in particular, didn’t exactly keep calm and carry on.

Investor sentiment continued to slide this week, as hopes for clarity in the Middle East once again gave way to thicker and more oily fog. Investors are now decisively bearish in eight of the ten markets we track, with the remaining two - the US and China - clinging stubbornly to negative territory. And this snapshot was taken before oil reminded everyone of its geopolitical résumé by vaulting back above $100 over the weekend for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A bearish signal simply means that caution has won the popularity contest. Risk‑averse investors now vastly outnumber those still willing to take risk, leaving plenty of sellers and very few buyers at current prices. The adjustment mechanism is neither subtle nor new: sellers accept discounts to entice the shrinki

Investor sentiment stayed firmly on the defensive last week as fresh uncertainty stemming from the SCOTUS tariff ruling collided with a renewed bout of AI-related anxiety. By week’s end, sentiment was bearish in six of the ten markets we track, with another three (Australia, Global Developed Markets, and the US) slipping into very negative territory. Only China remained neutral, for now, as investors returned from a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Investors knew that AI would be transformative - that it would deliver profound gains in productivity and accelerate progress across science and medicine. Last week, however, they were also confronted with a less familiar narrative: that AI may prove disruptive in economically negative ways that had not yet been fully considered. Investors are

Investor sentiment took a turn for the (much) worse last week across nearly every market we track, with the lone exception of China, where sentiment managed to climb back to neutral ahead of the week‑long Chinese New Year break - an upgrade from the previous week’s negativity. We now count six of the ten markets firmly in bearish territory, two more in the merely negative camp, and only two still clinging to neutrality. In the US, the sentiment picture is its own curiosity – the kind investors stare at for a while before deciding they’d rather not know how it ends. Risk tolerance has been flatlining since December, while risk aversion, having bottomed out in early January, has been steadily grinding higher. Concerns over Fed independence, SCOTUS unpredictability, and a geopolitical backdro

Investor sentiment weakened further last week. Bearish positioning persisted across six of the ten markets we track, deepened in two additional markets (Global Developed ex‑US, UK), and remained neutral / wait‑and‑see in the US. China was offline due to Lunar New Year holidays. Globally, investors are digesting softer US macro data, the SCOTUS ruling on Liberation Day tariffs, and rising geopolitical risk around Iran, as negotiations continue to stall without clear convergence. Absent further military escalation in Iran, attention now turns to Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings, which investors will look to for guidance and reassurance on the durability of AI‑driven valuations. Meanwhile, the ROOF Scores are flashing big warning signs in Global Emerging markets and Japan. The real question for AI

Over the past two weeks, investor sentiment weakened across most major markets except China, where it remained consistently negative, and the United States, where it held steady at neutral. Sentiment in Japan dipped slightly ahead of the snap elections, though the ruling coalition’s subsequent supermajority win should give Takaichi ample room to pursue her “proactive fiscal policy,” a likely positive for equities but less so for bonds. Is Canada next with a snap election (@Carney)? Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions involving Iran and renewed concerns about AI’s economic impact continue to restrain sentiment despite stronger‑than‑expected earnings so far (with 54% reported), which helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 50,000 for the first time in its 129‑year history. Investors

Investor sentiment was largely steady last week as markets balanced mixed economic signals against a shifting global backdrop, with Asia ex‑Japan and Global Emerging Markets staying bullish while Japanese investors remained defensive ahead of the February 8 snap election; in the US, a heavy slate of earnings across tech, consumer discretionary, communication services, and pharma is set to guide near‑term direction, while evolving trade discussions and policy dynamics continue to add uncertainty to the global outlook. Elsewhere, sentiment stayed largely neutral despite renewed geopolitical tensions, tariff threats, and the possibility of further military action in the Middle East. It’s the law of diminishing returns at work. Once investors have seen how a trade war or diplomatic tensions fl

Investor sentiment was broadly unchanged last week, with the only notable move coming from Japan, where investors turned bearish. Ongoing concerns that new stimulus measures may eventually be offset by fiscal tightening and higher rates – evidenced by the bond market - pushed Japanese sentiment deeper into negative territory. Global Emerging Markets sentiment remained bullish, even as Chinese investor sentiment slipped from neutral into negative. The overall stability in  sentiment reflects declining market risk, and should not be misinterpreted as a renewed willingness to take on more of it. The combination of lower volatility and lower trading volume suggests that investors are pausing rather than positioning - waiting for companies to “show me the earnings.” Despite markets hitting

Investor sentiment started the year at neutral levels in seven of the ten markets we track. In Asia ex‑Japan and Global Emerging Markets, sentiment moved into bullish territory, driven primarily by declining risk aversion rather than increased risk appetite. By contrast, recent China–Japan tensions have weighed on sentiment in Japan, where investors have turned negative. Importantly, the broad improvement in sentiment across markets reflects lower volatility rather than any materially positive news. Reduced estimates of potential losses have simply made investors less risk‑averse than they were in November and December. Looking ahead, the start of the Q4 earnings season should lead to greater dispersion, as investor attention shifts from macro and market‑wide drivers to company‑specific ne

2025 was arguably the most geopolitically consequential year since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Yet, it now feels like it may have been only a dress rehearsal for what is coming in 2026. Despite the Trump administration’s sweeping ‘America First’ agenda - promising peace in Ukraine and the Middle East, reclaiming the Panama Canal, acquiring Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, ending Iran’s nuclear program, and rebalancing trade with China - most of these ambitions remain unrealized. Their unfinished business will weigh heavily on markets and investor sentiment throughout 2026. According to the new National Security Strategy (NSS), the top U.S. priority is to “deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control

Note: the ROOF highlights will be on leave after this week, returning in January. Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment closed last week on a downbeat note: bearish in seven of the markets we track (see table), negative in two — Australia and the UK — and neutral in just one, China. This gloomy outlook stands in stark contrast to the continued rally in equities, fueled by hopes of persistently lower U.S. interest rates, aggressive AI-driven growth (with little regard for debt), and the ongoing pause in the U.S.–China trade war. Behind the optimism, investors sense trouble ahead: potential military conflicts at home (cities) and abroad (Venezuela), questions over Fed independence, inflation risks, and a looming AI bubble. And yes — winter is coming. 202

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to deteriorate last week, ending bearish across all five regional markets we track. Among individual markets, U.S. investors oscillated in and out of bearishness. In the U.K., sentiment dropped sharply from neutral to strongly negative ahead of this week’s Autumn Budget report. Japan shifted from neutral to negative as investors assessed the potential economic fallout from the new Prime Minister’s diplomatic clash with China. In China, sentiment weakened further on disappointing FDI data, closing on the cusp between negative and bearish. Overall, the imbalance between risk demand and supply is now deeply negative across most major markets, leaving them highly vulnerable to sharp downside overreactions if

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to weaken last week, ending bearish in five of the ten markets we track: Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed, Global Developed ex-US, Global Emerging, and Europe. Sentiment in the US was negative, while investors in other markets were neutral. Sentiment in Australia and the UK slipped from positive to neutral, whereas in China and Japan it recovered from the previous week’s negative stance. Despite this growing pessimism, market returns remained positive, defying the trend in sentiment. The imbalance between the demand and supply for risk is now as strongly negative as it was before Liberation Day. In this environment, investors’ negative bias tends to make them overreact to bad news and underreact to good ne

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to deteriorate over the past two weeks, even as markets moved higher. Sentiment ended bearish in Asia ex-Japan, Europe, Global Developed ex-US, and Global Emerging Markets. Investors remained negative in China, Global Developed markets, and the US. Only Australia and the UK maintained positive sentiment — though both have been prone to sharp mood swings recently. Globally, the disconnect between investor sentiment and market performance is widening, reaching unsustainable levels in several markets where the imbalance between the demand and supply for risk has turned dangerously negative. The past two weeks were dominated by Trump news, both domestically and internationally, and he looks set to continue sh

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment kept drifting away from market performance last week. Fear of renewed US-China trade tensions weighed on sentiment, while markets shrugged off geopolitics and surged ahead on strong economic data and corporate earnings. By Friday, sentiment was negative in six markets (Asia ex-Japan, China, Global EM, Europe, Japan, US), neutral in three (Global DM, Global DM ex-US, UK), and positive only in Australia—boosted by rising gold prices and warmer US ties. Weekend headlines brought relief: progress on US-China trade talks, Milei’s strong local election showing (securing a US lifeline), and neutral US inflation data. Together, these should spark a sentiment rebound this week, reinforcing market momentum. Since Trump’s ret

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment weakened further last week, turning negative in four major markets—China, Europe, Japan, and the US—while remaining neutral elsewhere. Although the initial shock of the Liberation Day tariffs and related trade war concerns has eased, these issues continue to weigh heavily on investors’ minds. Some countries, including Japan, Canada, the UK, and the EU, have complied with the Trump administration’s demands by offering non-reciprocal trade terms. Others, such as India, China, and Brazil, have resisted, adding complexity to the global trade landscape. With no cohesive global trade framework currently in place, forecasting has become more difficult, and this lack of confidence is dampening investors’ appetite for risk.

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment closed the week in a holding pattern—dead neutral across all markets we track, except Japan where investors turned negative after the political fallout between the LDP and Komeito parties. It is as if investors globally are saying “We don’t know what’s going on between you two (US and China), but we don’t like it one bit”. Except in Japan where they seem to be saying “We don’t know either, but we have our own leadership vacuum to deal with”. Right now, the market shows a perfect balance between the supply and demand for risk—there’s no sign of a sentiment-driven risk premium anywhere, except in Japan, where risk aversion is climbing rapidly. This week, ‘tariffied’ investors will be watching closely for any sign tha

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to rebound last week, largely thanks to a steady decline in risk aversion—except in the UK. There, investors had shown a genuine appetite for risk in September but dialed back their enthusiasm somewhat last week. Globally, investors are less negative, but still not confident enough to shift beyond a neutral stance. Only those in the US, UK, and Global Developed markets managed to edge into slightly positive territory. In Japan, investors remained neutral in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the weekend’s LDP leadership election, which saw (on her third attempt) the election of Takaichi, the party’s first female leader and a known follower of Abenomics. That outcome should give sentiment a lift this week. Meanw

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Resilient market returns have sparked a sentiment recovery in six of the markets we track — China, Global Developed, Europe, Japan, the UK, and the US — narrowing the gap between market performance and investor sentiment that had widened since early August. In contrast, sentiment remains out of sync with market performance in four other regions: Asia ex-Japan, Australia, Global Developed ex-US, and Global Emerging Markets. Notably, except for the UK, the sentiment rebound was driven more by a decline in risk aversion than by an increase in risk tolerance. This means investors in those markets feel less urgency to protect against downside risk, but that sense of security hasn’t yet translated into a greater willingness to take on risk