While many professionals are moving to the sidelines, private investors are reacting to the relatively high share prices with short positions. This creates potential for further price gains. Summary Around the all-time high of German blue chips, many professionals have been drawn to the sidelines. 13 percent have sold shares, the majority of whom are out of the market. The situation is different for private investors, with both previously neutral investors and bulls now betting on falling prices. The sentiment indices of both groups fall to -1 and +7 points respectively. Joachim Goldberg attests that private investors are more courageous in the face of short-sellers. However, they were also trading from a more favorable starting position. The fact that local investors are selling into a ri

The current DAX rally has not triggered any new euphoria in the market for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, European equities, which have been neglected for a long time, are moving more into the focus of investors following their recent outperformance. 14 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). “In line with the performance, European ETFs were the most actively traded,” reports Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank. In recent days, the trader has observed continued strong interest in small-cap and mid-cap ETFs, such as those offered by Amundi in the MDAX (FR0011857234) or SDAX (LU2611732475). The iShares MSCI EMU Mid Cap (IE00BCLWRD08) and the Xtrackers MDAX ESG Screened (IE00B9MRJJ36) were also in demand. Overall, even more buys than sells According to the Baader Bank specialist, value E

We note that in defiance of sentiment, markets continued to rise for the fourth consecutive week as (some) investors insist an interest rate cut is imminent in what increasingly feels like an enormous quid for a yet unspoken quo. US monetary policy: This week, the focus is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Tuesday speech and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. It's expected that core inflation will slightly decrease as the high April 2023 monthly increase of 0.468% drops from the annual rate calculation, to be replaced by an estimated 0.3% rise for April 2024, leading to a lower annual inflation rate of 3.56% from the 3.8% previously. Despite this, prevailing market sentiment is quite pessimistic, posing a risk of a downward overreaction should inflation figures unexpec

The DAX is on the verge of an all-time high, but many investors remain cautious.  Summary Since our sentiment survey 14 days ago, the stock markets have been on something of a rollercoaster ride. The DAX, still weak at the beginning, fell by 2.2% at times, only to rally by around 4% afterwards. Institutional investors in particular seem unimpressed by this, as the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Sentiment Index has remained unchanged. However, there has probably been much more activity behind the scenes than some investors would have liked, as both bulls and bears have increasingly retreated to the same extent. In the end, we find a large proportion of neutral institutional investors, and at a high for the year. Joachim Goldberg still does not expect the bulls, who are still in the majority,

Inflows into broadly diversified equity ETFs are continuing - albeit at a lower level. Shares in gold and copper producers are doing very well. Some are taking profits on tech stocks. 7 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). ETFs continue to enjoy great popularity. “We had more than twice as many buys as sells,” explains Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank, looking back on the past week. Fabian Wörndl from Lang & Schwarz also sees continued buying, especially in the major indices such as the MSCI World and S&P 500. However, things are quieter due to the holidays. Heinrich speaks of another decline in turnover. “We are seeing significantly less trading volume,” reports Ivo Orlemann from ICF Bank. The stock markets have been able to catch up again after the recent setback. At midda

Following the previous week's focus on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, the markets are now turning their attention to companies' quarterly reports. It is also high season for dividend payments.   6 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The stock markets have experienced a rollercoaster of emotions over the past week, particularly with regard to interest rate hopes. After the US Federal Reserve rejected an imminent easing of key interest rates in the middle of the week, the labor market report on Friday reignited speculation about falling interest rates. Both the S&P 500 (+1.3 percent) and the Nasdaq 100 (+2.0 percent) were then able to recoup their previous losses and end the week in positive territory The DAX, on the other hand, closed at 18,001 poi

The main factor still weighing on sentiment is the direction of US interest rates. The negative mood reflects the adjustment to their portfolios investors still need to (reluctantly) make from their original forecast of where they would be at year-end. For Wall Street, where newness is a constant demand, the lack of movement so far in 2024, marks it as an especially portentous year. Last week’s US economic data releases did not answer any questions for investors. In fact, it may have raised their anxiety levels about the timing of the first rate cut (if any). April marked the 27th consecutive month with the unemployment rate remaining below 4%, equaling the longest period of such low rates since the 1960s. The proportion of employed individuals in their prime working years, aged 25 to 54,

The prospect of a further delay in lower interest rates is supporting the gold price, Blumenroth summarises the week.   3 May 2024. FRANKFURT (Xetra-Gold). A week in which gold initially suffered from both rising US government bond yields and profit-taking. In addition, few weeks this year are likely to be as full of economic data as this one. And this is despite the public holiday in Central Europe yesterday and the public holidays in China and elsewhere that follow. Let's stay in Europe for now: according to the first estimate for gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2024, there are signs of positive economic development in Germany and the eurozone - this grew more strongly than analysts had expected on average. As the core inflation rate in the eurozone, adjuste

The USA in particular appears to be convincing at the moment - both in the equity and bond sectors. The influx into tech and AI stocks is also continuing, although some ETFs are also seeing outflows. Still in demand: Gold ETCs. “   30 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). ETF purchases already continued in the falling markets, and even more so in the rising markets since last week. Frank Mohr from Société Générale continues to see more buying than selling. “However, the buying overhang is shrinking,” he observes. The strong concentration on the USA is currently striking: “US equities account for 40 percent of our turnover and are therefore well ahead of the MSCI World equities, which are otherwise equally strong in terms of turnover.” Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank also

After four weeks of weakness, the mood has turned, with many company reports being too convincing. The further course of the reporting season and, of course, the actions of the central bankers will now be decisive. 29 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Although there are no longer any hopes of an interest rate cut in the US in the near future, the reporting season shows that most companies are doing well. The phase of weakness on the stock market that has persisted since the end of March therefore appears to be over. The DAX stood at x points on Monday morning after closing at 18,161 points on Friday. Alphabet and Microsoft surprised positively with their quarterly figures on Friday and drove the tech sector upwards.  According to Robert Halver of Baader Bank, the recent pr

Investor sentiment weakened further last week with four out of the ten markets we follow ending the week in a bearish mood. Investors in China continue to be the exception, turning bullish for the first time since January and providing support for the recent market run. Global Emerging markets and Asia ex-Japan markets have followed China higher, but sentiment among those investors has declined from bullish two weeks ago to neutral now on worries about the ongoing impact of high US interest rates and the strong USD on corporate borrowers. Japanese investors have now become bearish for the second time this month, shaving 5% off the (25%) market rally that started in November last year. Similarly, sentiment among UK investors has also become somewhat unhorsed last week, dropping from bullish

Investors are acknowledging the brief dip with purchases. Joachim Goldberg knows whether this could pose a threat to the bull market. Summary Many professionals reacted to the rapid recovery after the price dip by buying shares, having previously been both short and neutral. The sentiment index for this group jumped by 20 points to +13. Joachim Goldberg assumes that sufficient profits were taken. Private investors moved in the same direction, with a sentiment index of +10 points. The behavioral economist points out that optimism is at a high level in relative terms, fortunately we cannot speak of extreme values. However, he suspects book profits by older bulls, which could be realized from 18,280/330. On the other hand, the good mood could soon be over again. 24 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Gold

Despite some heavy price losses, including in the tech sector, the ETF market is stable. Some traders are seeing a selling overhang, but most are seeing more buying. Bitcoin and gold price trackers continue to see a lot of activity - in both directions.   23 April 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The sustained price losses since the end of March have now caused at least some people to get cold feet. The first are selling their investments. "With share indices falling significantly, we had around 15 percent more sales than purchases - with noticeably higher turnover," reports Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank. Leo Puschmann from Lang & Schwarz only saw individual profit-taking, for example on Friday when the Nvidia share price slipped sharply. "Overall, however, purchases pre