$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2309(BZmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ Crude oil released from SPR was 1.4m bbls for the week ending June 23/23. ~23m bbls done, ~3m bbls to go.ImageCrude oil released from SPR was 1.7m bbls for the week ending June 16/23. ~21.6m bbls done, ~4.4m bbls to go.ImageIt seems like it has been forever since we have seen a strong green day in the US and Canadian O&G space. Let's see if we can build on this.Image

The energy sector has been really struggling this year, the only sector down double-digit. On the other hand, it is the only sector green since Jan 1/2022.$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$

I am not a fan of diversification. I believe that through diversification you can't consistently beat the market over the long term. I invest in 2-3 sectors and 2-3 stocks in each sector. My approach is simple: I do top-down analysis, find the most undervalued sectors then go all in (well almost) in 1-3 stocks in those sectors. Of course, the downside is, if I am wrong then it will hurt. In 2021 and 2022 I was 100% and ~90% all energy respectively. This year my energy exposure has been anywhere between 15%-25%. It has been a drag on my overall portfolio, however since my portfolio was over 50% in META $Meta Platforms(META)$ (now about 35%), I am doing fine. As 1st half of 2023 is coming to an end, I increased my energy exposure to ~25% as I believ

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2308(BZmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ Crude oil, gasoline, and jet fuel stocks change two weeks into the driving season.ImageYTD (through 24 weeks) crude oil demand/supply breakdown compared to previous years.ImageA slightly bullish report but nothing to be excited about. YTD commercial crude inventories are up ~42.7m bbls, while big 4 products are down ~ 2.7m bbls.ImageHow most think it's a demand problem when it is clearly a supply problem. The implied product demand for the we

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ -Cracks are still very, very strong. -Refinery throughput is highest in the last 4 years. -Implied product demand keeps improving with both gasoline and jet fuel demand sitting comfortably above last year. Yet, it's a demand problem! Oki.Natty production has dropped below 100 bcf/d for the 1st time since Feb 10/23.ImageOn the other hand, LNG exports look 🤮ImageLNG bulls better hope for high LNG prices for these projections to pay outImagePrice assumptions for different scenarios.Image

The true bull market will begin when indexes such as SPX $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and ndx $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are flat/down but ~70% of stocks that represent them are up.Nothing new! The same thing happened during the 70s inflation, albeit it took a bit longer for indexes to recover, though inflation was much higher/stickier back then.ImageThe narrative was: tech hates high-interest rate environment,it performs horribly in it. Reality: tech hates uncertainty, once that uncertainty is gone, quality companies do well no matter what. 70s inflation and market performance was my number 1 reference point on how to play the markets this year.ImageWhen confidence is gone from this sector, it's hard to bring it back. $70

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2307(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2307(MCLmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2308(BZmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2307(QMmain)$ Even though stocks are building, the implied product demand moved higher for the week ending June 9/2023, mainly due to a big jump in other oils demand. Gasoline demand continues to stay strong.ImageThe implied product demand moved slightly lower for the week ending June 2/2023, mainly due to a big drop in other oils demand. That said, gasoline demand continues to stay above 2022 levels.ImageYTD (through 23 weeks) crude oil demand/supply brea

OPEC members' annual production since 2014ImageOPEC broadly left both non-OPEC supply and demand forecasts for 2023 unchanged from a month ago. According to their own research, we should see a major drawdown in crude oil inventories during the second half of 2023 as voluntary cuts kick in.ImageDemand for crude in the second half is always higher than in the first half by about 1.2-2.5%. And yes cooling, not heating demand.OPEC May production was down ~462k bbls/d mainly driven by lower production from Gulf producers.Image

here is how each component performed over the last 3 monthsImage$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$ $

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2307(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2307(MCLmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2308(BZmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2307(QMmain)$ CFTC Crude Oil speculative net long positions have increased slightly while S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ speculative net shorts have decreased by a whooping 90k contracts (though remains heavily shorted by speculators).ImageOther than crude, it was mostly green in the energy land. WTI futures strip is now averaging below $70/bbl. That's one hell of a ouching. ImageTotal U.S. Rigs were down 1: Oil