$UBS Group AG(UBS)$ 's latest global macro strategy report and integrating the core insights from BlackRock CEO's interview, a clear signal emerges: the market still holds overly optimistic expectations for a "swift resolution to the Middle East conflict" but severely underestimates the probability of a global recession triggered by surging oil prices. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked and global crude oil inventories being depleted at an accelerated pace, if inventories bottom out by the end of April, a restructuring of global asset pricing logic may be triggered in early May—recession risk has entered the countdown. I. Dual Warning from UBS & BlackRock! $150 Oil = The "Death Switch" for a Global Recession As the "lifeblood" of the g
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As Conflicting U.S.-Iran Headlines Become the New Normal: How to Trade U.S. Stocks, Gold, and Crude
Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until
As Conflicting U.S.-Iran Headlines Become the New Normal: How to Trade U.S. Stocks, Gold, and Crude
UBS & BlackRock Warns: Conflict Until May, Recession Soars! Market Guide Under $150 Oil
UBS & BlackRock Warns: Conflict Until May, Recession Soars! Market Guide Under $150 Oil
Trade With Trump’s Rhythm: Is Stagflation Really Coming?
With Trump restarting “TACO”, coupled with rampant rumors that he might visit China in April, global financial markets have once again entered the absolute-dominance zone of the “US stock first principles: just follow Trump’s calls.” $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 1. Macro strategists’ “Ragnarok”: Trump becomes the only right one Remember those highly praised strategists at Deutsche Bank, Citi, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley? Now in the face of absolute power, technical analysis turns into mysticism. 100% bottom-fishing success rate: Trump tells you to buy, ignore the earnings report. 100% crude oil short success rate: Trump says oil is too high — even if the Middle East is on fire, the sh
Trade With Trump’s Rhythm: Is Stagflation Really Coming?
Gold’s Sharp Drop Isn’t the End of the Story — It May Be the Start
Gold sold off sharply again this morning, extending the daily chart to nine consecutive down days. Even though oil is still trading below $100, other risk assets are already starting to wobble. Looking at the broader market action, there may still be downside risks that have not been fully priced in. It may not be time to panic yet, but a more defensive stance and readiness to exit are becoming increasingly necessary. It was somewhat surprising to see gold fail to hold its previous major trading range, especially since this latest leg lower came with almost no resistance at all. From a strategy perspective, one short and one long trade still ended up producing a profit overall, but the high-volatility range-trading logic has clearly broken down. The move to fresh lows not only opens up a n
Gold’s Sharp Drop Isn’t the End of the Story — It May Be the Start
Oil Tops $100! Goldman Says Real Alpha in Oil Stocks?
$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ posted its biggest single-session move in years. $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2605(BZmain)$ is now near $110/bbl — up over 70% vs Q4 2025 average. Most retail traders rushed into oil ETFs. Goldman Sachs quietly dropped a note this morning suggesting that's the wrong trade. Hormuz Disruption: 17x Larger Than the Russia Shock of 2022 The Strait of Hormuz — carrying roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply — is effectively shut. Goldman Sachs estimates the total hit to Persian Gulf flows at 17mb/d, a disruption 17 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russian oil production. Pipeline alternatives via Saudi Arabia and UAE can theoretically redirect up to
Oil Tops $100! Goldman Says Real Alpha in Oil Stocks?
Will the Iran-Israel Conflict Spur Further Oil Price Gains?
While the market eagerly anticipates developments in US-China negotiations and tariff issues, Israel has once again stirred the scene. Sensitive geopolitical factors have made oil prices last week’s biggest winner, as prices quickly rebounded above $65 and began to climb toward $80, approaching the median price range that prevailed during the Biden administration. How the Israel-Iran situation unfolds will introduce significant uncertainty for oil prices and other markets, which have so far remained relatively calm.According to JPMorgan, in the worst-case scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel, though this remains relatively unlikely at present. The bank also believes the fair value for US crude is in the $60–$65 range, as persistently high
Will the Iran-Israel Conflict Spur Further Oil Price Gains?
💰Middle East and U.S.-Iran Geopolitical Tensions: Oil Stocks and ETFs Surge!
On local time June 12th, tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalated. Israel launched a military operation against Iran, an action that instantly "set the whole region on edge."Israel has launched strikes on dozens of targets in Iran, including major nuclear enrichment facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that a military operation codenamed "Operation Rising Lion" was launched against Iran, aimed at paralyzing Tehran's nuclear program.Source: Wall Street JournalIt's important to note that the Middle East is one of the world's most critical crude oil production regions, and the Strait of Hormuz is the "lifeline" for oil transportation. About one-third of the world's seaborne oil passes through here.With the situation now on a hair trigger, the market has panicked. Inves
💰Middle East and U.S.-Iran Geopolitical Tensions: Oil Stocks and ETFs Surge!
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Based on recent news articles, the sentiment regarding oil prices is mixed. While some articles mention that oil prices have risen due to factors such as wildfires in Canada's oil sands and expectations of a drawdown in US inventories, other articles highlight that oil prices have declined to nine-week lows following disappointing inflation data and unchanged forecasts from OPEC. Overall, the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain and is influenced by various factors such as supply-demand dynamics, global economic indicators, and geopolitical events. Here are some news articles related to oil prices: Oil prices up on wildfires in Canada, US inventories drawdown expectations: This article mentions that oil prices rose due to the threat of wildfires in Canada's oil sands and expectations o
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Bearish on Oil: Why I’ll Take Profit at $95
The oil market, characterized by its volatility and sensitivity to various economic factors, has recently been a topic of intense discussion among investors and traders alike. In this article, I will elucidate my perspective on why I intend to take profit after oil reaches $95 per barrel. My rationale is rooted in the interplay between oil prices and interest rates, my bearish outlook on oil prices in the current economic climate, and my anticipation of an interest rate reversal in the near future. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$
Bearish on Oil: Why I’ll Take Profit at $95
Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?
Oil prices are now up over 30% since mid-June. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$ reaches $92.43, a record high in 2023.$Brent Last Day Financial - main 2311(BZmain)$ has risen from around $72 to $95.To learn more about oil prices, you can click How to Gain From 25% Upside & 24h Quotes of Oil Futures?But the markets believe the rate hike cycle is over and that Fed will start to cut rates in 2024.data from cmegroupWhy do surging oil prices won’t affect rate hike decision?Oil prices account small part for core CPIMORGAN STANLEY: “.. a 10% increase in oil prices .. adds 35bp to headline CPI for 3 months, but ju
Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?
Nightmare of inflation? The relationship between oil prices and CPI & PPI
Historically, there is often a sequential relationship between rising oil prices and high inflation, but is there a causal relationship between them? Inflation devalues the currency, leading to higher prices for consumer goods and services, while the rising cost of living in turn affects individual optional consumer spending and economic growth. Recently, oil prices have risen rapidly, and the market is once again worried about the U.S. inflation rate picking up.Historical data showed a correlation between rising oil prices and inflation. But there is evidence that the link between oil prices and inflation began to break decades ago. Bob Iaccino, co-founder of Path Trading Partners, said the relationship weakened after oil prices soared in the 1970s.图片How does the oil price affect the macr
Nightmare of inflation? The relationship between oil prices and CPI & PPI
Crude Oil Prices Surge Continues
What are the potential impacts? The global crude oil market is experiencing a sustained surge, with prices on track for their third consecutive weekly gain. This bullish momentum is primarily attributed to robust economic data emerging from China, coupled with reports of record-breaking oil consumption. The implications of this upward trend are multifaceted and warrant a closer examination of the factors contributing to it, as well as the potential consequences for various stakeholders. [USD] Crude Oil Updates China, the world's second-largest crude oil consumer, has emerged as a significant driver behind the recent surge in oil prices. The country's economic indicators, including industrial output and retail sales, have exceeded expectations, indicating a stabilization of the econom
Crude Oil Prices Surge Continues
Crude Oil Prices Surge
In today's Asian trade, crude oil prices continued their upward trajectory, maintaining levels near a 10-month high, driven by a confluence of significant factors. Key drivers in this bullish trend included OPEC's anticipation of tighter oil supplies, concerns surrounding crucial U.S. inflation data, and signals of a potential increase in oil inventories. Crude Oil Updates The surge in crude oil prices had commenced the previous day, propelled by OPEC's release of a monthly report predicting further tightening in the oil market throughout the current year. This forecast was grounded in robust demand and reduced production levels. Just a week prior to the report, two major oil-producing nations, Saudi Arabia and Russia, had jointly announced substantial supply reductions for the remainder o
Crude Oil Prices Surge
Key Levels for Trading Oil Prices at $90! Imapcts on CPI?
$Brent Last Day Financial - main 2311(BZmain)$ has reached the $90 per barrel, the first time since November last year.1. What fuels oil prices continuting rally? Extension of production cutSaudi Arabia has announced that it will extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for another 3 months.Russia has also declared that it will continue its voluntary reduction of 300,000 barrels per day in oil supply until the end of December 2023.2. Resistance and support level for oil prices trading as it hit new highWhile oil prices are on a strong upward trend, the critical resistance level around $93-94 should not be overlooked. There may be a risk of a bull trap if other risk assets do not advance further. The resistance near $83.
Key Levels for Trading Oil Prices at $90! Imapcts on CPI?
Hitting $100? Crude oil to embark on a new upward trend
On Monday, driven by expectations of production cuts, $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2311(BZmain)$ surged to $88.90, while $WTI Crude Oil - main 2310(CLmain)$ reached their highest intraday level since November of last year. In August, the International Energy Agency (IEA) had forecasted that this year's global demand would hit a historical high due to robust air travel, power generation needs, and activities in China's petroleum and chemical industry.The reasons for the oil prices increase include:Production Cuts: The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has implemented substantial measures to limit crude oil supply to support the market. Supply Constraints: High temperatures and other
Hitting $100? Crude oil to embark on a new upward trend
Chart of the Week - World Oil Demand
$WTI Crude Oil - main 2310(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2310(MCLmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2311(BZmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2310(QMmain)$ ImageI’m a big fan of using technical breakouts as a prompt to take a closer look at a certain asset or market (to then go and build out the rest of the picture) —but a less common approach is to look at breakouts in fundamental indicators. And this one is worth looking at.The chart shows world oil demand (across all products, think: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG), what should be no surprise is the collapse in 2020 (as humanity collectively
Chart of the Week - World Oil Demand
【Events】Who Are the Winners in Futures Trading?
Hi Tigers:During this scorching summer, the global futures market is ablaze with trading excitement, offering countless opportunities for trading masters to succeed. I would like to invite you to share your futures trading & win Tiger Coins. Feel free to leave your comment of this post and talk about how your Futures performed.💡How to participate？Leave a message in the comments section of this post, and share your Futures Trading.How to share positions?Sharing positions is easy. From your account holdings interface “portfolio”, you can click orders from the futures tab, then you can click "Share" by each of your Futures holdings to share with the community how much money you have made (or lost) on your investments.Do not forget to take a screen
【Events】Who Are the Winners in Futures Trading?
[Prediction] Can oil hit $90 or not?
Click to vote. Guess how will $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2310(BZmain)$ close Friday 11/8 ? If you get the correct answer, you may divide 1000 Tiger Coins with other Tigers.WTI crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2309(CLmain)$ up 20% in past six weeks, Brent $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2310(BZmain)$ up 17%. Over the weekend, Ukraine launched a naval drone attack on Russia’s port of Novorossiysk, a critical hub on the Black Sea for Russian oil exports. Ukraine did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.In addition, the world’s top oil exporter Saudi Arabia last Thursday extended its voluntary crude oil output cut of a mi
[Prediction] Can oil hit $90 or not?
Will crude oil breaks through as rate hikes come to an end?
The fundamentals of the oil market remains mixed, and there doesn't seem to be a strong one-sided trend. The recent rise in crude oil prices can be explained as a fluctuation from the low levels.Why did crude oil experience a bottom bounce?This is because low oil prices were stimulated by three major factors, leading to consecutive two weeks of price increases and breaking through the long-term downtrend and the MA 200 (moving average 200).OPEC+ continued production cuts.The rate hike is coming to an end after July FOMC.An important meeting in China that opened up possibilities for future economic growth.During the June OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut an additional 1 million barrels per day, which was a rare and significant reduction, the largest in years. The IEF Secretary-Gen
Will crude oil breaks through as rate hikes come to an end?
2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?
As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe
2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?