Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

Introduction: Markets Hold Firm as Rate Sensitivity Rises From August 31 to September 4, U.S. stocks moved as investors weighed geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, volatile global bond yields and a stronger jobs report. SPY gained 0.41% for the week, suggesting that risk appetite remained intact. However, market swings grew sharper. On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, well above forecasts, while unemployment held at 4.1%. As a result, Treasury yields and the dollar climbed, prompting investors to price in a greater chance of further Fed tightening. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2609

Macro Strategy Weekly China’s Rebounding Energy Demand Is Pushing Global Yields Higher: What Is the Best Options Strategy for Navigating a Range-Bound Market? Weekly Strategy Summary The key focus for markets this week is not to make a directional bet on any single asset. Rather, it is to monitor how the yen, crude oil, global bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities establish new inter-market linkages. The key takeaways from this week’s report are as follows. $Japanese Yen - main 2609(JPYmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2610(QMmain)$

The market’s greatest challenge this week is that several seemingly independent trading themes are beginning to interact with one another: the yen has reached a six-month high; expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike are building; global bond yields are broadly rising; signs are emerging of a rebound in China’s crude-oil demand; and expectations for Federal Reserve policy have once again been unsettled by comments from Donald Trump. When these variables move simultaneously, markets rarely deliver a clean, smooth one-way trend. Instead, they are more likely to enter a high-volatility, range-bound phase marked by repeated swings in both directions. The key variable to watch now is whether the yen can make a further near-term directional break. This matters not only for the U.S. dollar inde

As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p

$SIA(C6L.SI)$ at S$6.30 (+0.64%) today. Full-year results drop Thursday, May 14. The setup is unusually clean: the same Middle East conflict that's driving safe-haven wealth flows into Singapore is also pushing Brent crude above US$120/barrel — SIA's biggest cost and biggest tailwind are both being powered by the same geopolitical event, in opposite directions. Keypoints to watch for earnings 1. Fuel: 29% of costs, and oil just gained another 20% Fuel represents approximately 29% of SIA's total expenditure — the largest single cost line. The conversation in early April was about US$100 oil threatening aviation recovery. By late April, $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2607(BZmain)$ hit US$120+, the h

Tonight at 2 PM ET, the FOMC will announce its decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, marking the third consecutive pause, which is almost fully priced in. What’s really keeping the market on edge is not the number itself, but the Fed’s forward stance. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Will Powell Stay on as a Governor? Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15. He has hinted that he could remain as a Fed Governor until January 2028 after stepping down as Chair. Today, the Senate Banking Committee will vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination, and the key procedural hurdles have already been cleared. This could be Powell’s last press conference as Chair. The market is waiting for one signal: Will he stay, or leave entirely? Goldman Pushes Back: Market

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(CLmain)$   $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2605(BZmain)$   $Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$   $Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares(ERX)$   ​While the headlines focus on FM Araghchi’s dash back to Islamabad and the collapse of the Trump-negotiated peace talks, a silent, irreversible catastrophe is unfolding beneath the Iranian soil. ​The clock expires this Monday. Here is the viral breakdown of why Iran’s oil industry is about to hit a "Point of No Return" without a single US bomb being dropped. ​📉 The Storage Wall: 48 Hours to Zero ​The US Naval Blockade (active s

$UBS Group AG(UBS)$ 's latest global macro strategy report and integrating the core insights from BlackRock CEO's interview, a clear signal emerges: the market still holds overly optimistic expectations for a "swift resolution to the Middle East conflict" but severely underestimates the probability of a global recession triggered by surging oil prices. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked and global crude oil inventories being depleted at an accelerated pace, if inventories bottom out by the end of April, a restructuring of global asset pricing logic may be triggered in early May—recession risk has entered the countdown. I. Dual Warning from UBS & BlackRock! $150 Oil = The "Death Switch" for a Global Recession As the "lifeblood" of the g

With Trump restarting “TACO”, coupled with rampant rumors that he might visit China in April, global financial markets have once again entered the absolute-dominance zone of the “US stock first principles: just follow Trump’s calls.” $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 1. Macro strategists’ “Ragnarok”: Trump becomes the only right one Remember those highly praised strategists at Deutsche Bank, Citi, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley? Now in the face of absolute power, technical analysis turns into mysticism. 100% bottom-fishing success rate: Trump tells you to buy, ignore the earnings report. 100% crude oil short success rate: Trump says oil is too high — even if the Middle East is on fire, the sh

While the market eagerly anticipates developments in US-China negotiations and tariff issues, Israel has once again stirred the scene. Sensitive geopolitical factors have made oil prices last week’s biggest winner, as prices quickly rebounded above $65 and began to climb toward $80, approaching the median price range that prevailed during the Biden administration. How the Israel-Iran situation unfolds will introduce significant uncertainty for oil prices and other markets, which have so far remained relatively calm.According to JPMorgan, in the worst-case scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel, though this remains relatively unlikely at present. The bank also believes the fair value for US crude is in the $60–$65 range, as persistently high