1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Everything is down but Tesla used to hold up in these situations. Times have changed.My biggest issue with Musk may be that he doesn’t seem to realize the influence he has for both good and bad. People do bet their life savings based on what he says. People do believe every word he says. His actions and words have consequences. He should take that responsibility seriously.Image2. $Redfin Corp(RDFN)$ How does Redfin lose money? Serious question.Image3. $Rocket Companies(RKT)$ & $Redfin Corp(RDFN)$ I have a hard time seeing how this is good for anyone. Rocket wants to be a platform, so it integra

As the market falls, companies who rely on more and more cash to fund operations could be in trouble. AND EVEN GO BANKRUPT.These stocks are popular, but could all go to $0. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $Sunrun(RUN)$ $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ $Plug Power(PLUG)$ $ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ $NuScale Power(SMR)$ $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ Values can always fall further but eventually I’ll get to “back the truck up” mode.Sentiment is

Every once in a while, I’m reminded that many investors haven’t lived through a normal recession or market decline in their investing lives. 2020 doesn’t count, in part because the market recovered in a few months and there was nothing “normal” about 2020.2008 and 2009 were the last real recession we had in the U.S. and someone who started their investing journey at the market bottom in 2009 at 22 years old would now be 38 years old!To say that the last 16 years of stability and prosperity for investors are an outlier would be an understatement. The only major pullbacks in that time were a short drop when COVID hit and the popping crypto/SPAC/ZIRP speculation in 2022. But there hasn’t been a normal recession since 2009.Zoom out to the beginning of the century and the last 16 years look lik

Let's talk about falling stocks. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ This is a normal part of the market.The top isn't representative of underlying value.Neither is the bottom.Look at the long-term and position yourself for success over 10-20 years. A couple of months is mostly volatility.Stocks can ALWAYS fall more.Don't anchor your view of a company based on the top of the market.Understand where you think the market is wrong about the long-term. That's when you back the truck up.

Making stuff for rich people accessible to the masses hasn’t often been an explicit part of the business model for companies. But I’m hearing it more and more.It was this interview with Vlad Tenev from $Robinhood(HOOD)$ that piqued my interest in the company and ultimately drove me to add Robinhood to the Asymmetric Portfolio last year. He said in part:The idea behind Robinhood Gold is, if you’re a high net worth individual and you’re accustomed to a level of service from your bank or financial institution, we want to open up that private client, high net worth experience for just $5 per month to the mass market.Vlad Tenev, Robinhood CEOTaken with that lens, Robinhood’s strategy of adding more services to Gold and leveraging its lower cost structu

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ Coming into 2025, it was hard to find any sort of bearishness in market sentiment.Whether it was regulations or crypto or interest rates or simply politics, business owners and investors found every reason they could to be bullish.We’re now two months into the year and the consumer has a different view of the world. And remember, it’s consumers that matter in the economy, not talking heads on TV.A report out this week from the Department of Commerce showed spending declined in Ja

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxesMoats don't look like they did in the 80s and 90s. Eventually, fundamentals win.The history of the internet says personalization at scale is the future of all business.Missing a 100x opportunity to get a 10% better price i

I thought of this quote this week when we saw $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ stock crash 22.3% on Tuesday after the Q4 2024 earnings report.Yes, the stock was down and investors who had a negative position were right that day. But the stock is also up 231.3% in the past year.Are the bears judging the company on the same time horizon I am?Are we debating the same things?Or are they playing a short-term game while I’m thinking about the next decade?Yes, the bears were right about the fact that GLP-1s are coming off shortage and Hims & Hers won’t be selling them beyond Q1 2025, at least not in their current form. And that brings uncertainty into the company’s revenue growth and earnings.But let’s take a long-term perspective. Hims & Hers

1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I don't normally short stocks, but I bought Tesla puts on the thesis:1. TSLA EV sales are falling2. Margins are going down3. FSD isn't...self-driving4. Robots aren't going to be as big as people think5. Valuation is insaneBut Up 39%!2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ HIMS early earnings takeaways:1. Weight loss only ~30% of the business.2. Platform expanding into more holistic offerings (lab testing -> exercise, vitamins, personalization).3. Scale is leading to operating leverage (1-3 pts of marketing leverage/yr).4. Vision is BIG!I was really impressed with the conference call. The vision is there and operating leverage is starting to kick in.

It’s easy to forget that stocks can go down when the market is going up. I don’t know who said it or what the exact saying is, but as David Gardner said, “Stocks go down faster than they go up, but go up more than they go down.”I want to stress a few points in Asymmetric Frameworks that are key at times like this:We need to think in years and decades, not days and weeks. This is our biggest advantage over the market.You should feel greedier when stocks fall and more fearful when they rise.Buying when sentiment is bad is hard, but it’s key to asymmetric returns.Uncertainty is our friend.If a stock falls despite great financial trends, that’s good news for us as investors.These are easy words to write. They’re simple to understand in theory. They’re more difficult to live through.Amazon’s As

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxes $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ If the future of healthcare is the personalization of treatments, why wouldn't a company that's built to personalize solutions be a winner?Moa

In 2040, I think $Zillow(Z)$ $Zillow(ZG)$ will have a $1 trillion+ market cap.That would be a 32% CAGR from today and a 64x return for investors.Let me explain👇Zillow is becoming the "housing platform" where we do everything from search for homes and rentals to find a mortgage. Over time, that position will allow Zillow to be the main "discovery" location for rentals, homes, insurance, moving services, title search, etc.Napkin math time:~9 million existing homes sold/yr in 2040 (conservative)~1 million new homes sold/yrZillow revenue of $5k/home for $50 billion in rev 50 million renters $1,000 in rev/yr per renterTotal: $100 billion in revenue0x sales = $1 trillion valuationThese are all guesstimates, but why

In 2007, the iPhone changed the game and technology forever, and events hit fevered pitch. For more than a decade, once or twice a year, there was a must-see event from Apple that captivated anyone interested in tech devices.Yesterday, there was an $Apple(AAPL)$ event and I didn’t know it happened until hours later. It was a jarring realization that Apple’s magic seems to be gone.Devices and The Changing Tech ParadigmIt’s hard to overstate how important the iPhone moment was in 2007. We went from a world where most of the world’s information was available on a desktop to a world of information being in my pocket 24/7.Only a few devices have changed the world as much as the iPhone. My short list of world-altering technology is:The printing pressThe

Hims & Hers Stock Is On Fire. Is It a Meme? $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ has been in the Asymmetric Universe since May 24, 2024, when this Spotlight article was published. I thought the company had 10x potential over the next decade, disrupting how we think about getting medicine in an internet world.What I didn’t expect was for shares to be up 258.2% in just under 9 months and 142.1% this year alone.Has the stock become a meme? Is buying now crazy? Or is the rocket ship just taking off?Hims & Hers Growth Is Out of This WorldSince 2018, Hims & Hers has grown revenue at a 95% compound annual growth rate and expects to grow revenue 90% this quarter. There aren’t many companies growing that fast and improving profitability at the s

1. $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ Lyft is now profitable and generating free cash flow.With the stock trading for under 1x sales, this is one of my favorite stocks for the next decade.Image2. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood's average assets per customer are up 69% since Q2 2021.The business is maturing and these tailwinds will last for decades.Image3. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Growing revenue double-digits + buying back 3% of shares each year is a recipe for long-term success.ImagePS: The stock market thinks short-term. Your biggest advantage is thinking long-term.The asymmetric investment opportunities of the next decade are

$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ and Mobileye continue to push forward. I’ll cover this more below, but it certainly looks like autonomy will become a commodity and the ride-sharing networks will be in a good position long-term.And $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , which I have a short position in via Jan 2027 puts, continues to fall behind in autonomy, despite what Elon Musk says. Not only is Tesla still not a “known AV operator” in Austin, where it says it’s launching a robotaxi service in 4 months, but there was an FSD accident that’s worth our attention.A Cybertruck owner on FSD 13.2.4 posted earlier this week that his truck crashed into a light post while FSD was active. You can see from the image below that this was no ordi

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Big Pharma and Big Pharmacy tried to get Hims & Hers' Super Bowl ad blocked.They even got senators involved.They're TERRIFIED of disruption from Hims & Hers making them irrelevant and I LOVE IT!Image2. $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ Why is Doordash worth $80 billion?Image3. $Zillow(Z)$ - Revenue up 17% to $554 million- Rentals continues to crush with a 25% jump to $116 million- Partners with Redfin to distribute multifamily listings from http://rent.com and http://apartmentguide.com Image