One of the things I try to do is understand why things have worked out the way they have in the past.I’ve written a lot about how formerly strong brands like $The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ , $BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD.(BDWBY)$ , and $Coca-Cola(KO)$ have lost their power position, as limited shelf space that drove supply’s advantage shifted in an internet world of unlimited shelf space.But where are the opportunities?A simple screen of the stocks that have generated a 25% compound annual return (25.9% is a 10x in 10 years) shows that most of the big companies on the list were household names a decade ago. And yet, they still generated huge returns.Even if we loo

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. The biggest winner in streaming today is probably ESPN/Disney.There was a real threat that Paramount Skydance would be a big player in sports after the $7.7 billion UF

One of the reasons I default to “never” selling stocks is that we never know when a stock will move higher or what will drive the move.I try to find companies that can compound revenue and earnings over a long period of time because that long-term view is our advantage over the market. But that doesn’t mean the ride will be a straight line higher.Take $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as an example. The stock has been an incredible performer over the past two decades.But to realize those gains, you would have had to ride out drops of over 80% multiple times.How does selling play a role, even when we own phenomenal long-term stocks?Something Has ChangedIf the thesis on a stock I own has changed, it might be time to sell.I did this with previous Asymmetric Investing s

While hedge funds may blow up on a regular basis, they have an incentive to do so.Hedge fund managers make money based on the returns they generate for their investors. And they attract money based on outsized returns that attract attention. Just beating the market by a narrow margin each year isn’t enough.Put it this way, it’s in a hedge fund’s interest to bet on “Red” at the roulette table and have a 49% chance of doubling their money and a 51% chance of going bust. The upside of having a 100% return year is potentially 10x-ing the size of your fund. Go bust, and they can start over again.Our personal portfolios don’t work that way.But avoiding going bust is relatively straightforward.Avoid LeverageNearly every investing horror story starts with leverage.Margin is what wipes out investor

Results are in, and I think this product could be huge for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . 5 Takeaways1. Faster than going to a doctor.2. More transparent data (democratizing access to data). 3. Lower cost.4. Opens new verticals for HIMS.5. Deepens relationship and adds value beyond subscriptions. Ex. I may start using $HIMS recipes to improve nutrition. I didn't know they had that until yesterday. Exercise next? It's all about aggregating demand. And aggregating demand comes from adding value to users. HIMS does this in spades with labs. Excited to see what's next. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as

Here's what I mean by "needs more scrutiny". $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's inventory falls when demand starts picking up in a cycle. In 2023, ChatGPT is exploding and GPU demand is off the charts, so inventory days (green below) drops. NVIDIA's inventory typically builds as the rate of growth slows. But there's a lag from the build of inventory to the drop-off in growth to historically eventually negative revenue growth.The reason this is important is the orange line, which is gross margins (pricing power). NVIDIA's high profits are driven by high margins. If inventory rises and pricing power falls, margins fall as well.Maybe the cycle continues, maybe it doesn't. But it's something you should consider given the regular drawdowns of 50%+ that NVIDIA goes thr

I was one of the first people to sign up for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ lab testing when it was announced last week.I quickly scheduled a time to get my labs done and broke the bank with the $499 advanced plan. It’s research, after all.Signup and Pre-LabsAs you would expect, signing up for Labs is a straightforward process. Hims & Hers is a typical modern tech company, and with a few clicks, I had paid for and scheduled my labs. I already had an account, so I had a bit of a head start; however, I think the setup process for an account took less than five minutes.Needless to say, this was easier than going to a doctor’s office.The app’s homepage then displayed all the necessary information about my appointment (I cropped some of the pe

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of

1. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Rising financing costs creates a death spiral for companies. To grow, they need more debt.As more debt is added debt costs go up making it harder to grow profitably. Problem is, if they stop the growth cycle the stock drops. If they keep going, it could get worse... 2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ These were always unsustainable "businesses" doomed to burn speculators. 3. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ HIMS lab testing complete. My experience: ⏰ 15 minutes from appt time to walking out the door🧪 9 vials of blood🎙️ Ample notifications about time and location from the

The stock market is still trading near all-time highs, and for stock investors, there appears to be little concern about potential risks from the economy, AI, or other factors at present. Earnings are strong and interest rates are coming down, so 🚀!But the stock market doesn’t run the world.The bond market does.The bond market is ten times the size of the equity market, and bond investors are more concerned about risk than opportunity. They aren’t worried about the asymmetric upside we have with stocks because…there isn’t that much upside in bonds. The upside is you get paid back with interest.That’s it!So, when bond investors start demanding more for taking even the smallest risks, we need to pay attention. And yields are up in places you wouldn’t think they could be. I’ll get to more in

1. $Uber(UBER)$ and $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ remain two of the best risk/reward opportunities on the market. As autonomy proliferates, they'll see costs come down, margins rise, and 10x+ market expansion. The trend is clear as day. 2.The foundation of Disney $Walt Disney(DIS)$ 's operations is the parks ($10 billion in OI and growing double-digits). But the operating leverage in streaming is starting to become evident and that could be a double-digit growth business for a decade. 3. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Quick reminder, there's a company out there compounding revenue at 77% and trading for just 4x sales. For SG us

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Slowly and then all at once. Shares have nearly doubled since early April. I guess ChatGPT didn't disrupt Google after all.Line chart displaying percentage change in Alphabet Inc. GOOG stock from May to October, starting near 0% and rising to about 35% by late October, with green upward trend line on light green background, labeled with months and total change of 37.1% CAGR 8.4% 2. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ 2 big takeaways from Disney’s report.1. Streaming inflection: DTC now generates +3x the revenue of linear TV and almost as will soon pass in operating income. 2. Experiences pass $10 billion in op income and growing double digits

Whether it was worries about AI returns, the government shutdown, or some disappointing earnings reports, the drawdown is now at 4.1% for the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and 2.4% for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . That’s not a big drop yet, but it’s been bigger for some stocks this week.I’ve written many times about how I feel the market is overoptimistic about the returns of AI and the growth that’s currently only being felt by the top end of consumers.We will likely see more volatility ahead, as indicated by weak results at restaurants and major layoffs across Corporate America.We’ve been through drawdowns (a decline from the peak valuation) before, but it’s been a while since one lasted very long. If you’ve been inves

The $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ earnings report once again had something for everyone this week. Revenue growth picked up sequentially, but margins fell, and the stock has been up and down ever since.One of the things we’re seeing is a more “normal” growth rate. You can see below that some of the GLP-1 growth from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025 was temporary in nature. But if you cut out that growth, the growth rate looks much more stable.This continues to be a company we need to look at with a long-term lens, which rides out the short-term volatility in the stock. Everything is intact for this to be a 10x stock over the next decade; it’ll just take time to get there.The Novo Nordisk BombshellDisclosure of discussion with

One of the more unusual segments of the market right now is the restaurant industry. I look at restaurants in part to see how consumers are behaving.Are consumers trading up? Trading down? Spending more or less on each trip? Is there regional strength/weakness?Sometimes, you can draw a clear picture of the health or weakness in consumers by looking at restaurants. Today, there seem to be contradictory things going on when you look at same-store sales trends at restaurants.First off is $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ , which has long been a steady growth company but suddenly saw sales crater over the summer. Is this a Chipotle-specific problem or something bigger? $Starbucks(SBUX)$ is another former stalwart

In 2015, Sam Altman and Elon Musk founded OpenAI in part out of fear that $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ would dominate AI if someone else didn’t get there first.When the ChatGPT moment hit in November 2022, the conventional wisdom was that Google’s moment of disruption had arrived. The company was behind in AI models, didn’t have compelling products, and was slow and unimaginative in releasing products.The criticisms were valid at the time.What Google did have was infrastructure and distribution. If it caught up on models and product, the threat could be snuffed out.The question was: Could ChatGPT become the go-to application for artificial intelligence before Google turned the search bar, Chrome, a

Big tech is getting close to tapped out on capex without + debt.With the increases expected for next year, it's likely $Oracle(ORCL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ all spend more on capex than the generate in operating cash flow. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ have the longest runway, but they're also getting close.META down huge after earnings. GOOG up big. Alphabet continues to be the biggest no-brainer in AI.ImageImageImageImageFor SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and t