One of the things I’ve learned in 30+ years of investing is how important history is in analyzing companies. Understanding what has happened in the past, why it happened, and what the results were can inform what’s likely to work in the future. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got right. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got wrong. And that brings me to $Walt Disney(DIS)$ , a company whose history I covered in-depth in the Disney Spotlight. But I may have focused my history lesson on the wrong area. I focused on Disney’s entertainment history and the ebbs and flows of content creation, which come and go every decade or so. What I didn’t focus on was the history of Disney’s parks and how it was the parks that have always been the driver o

$Netflix(NFLX)$ has lost momentum, and here's an opportunity to get it back. Netflix has seemingly won the streaming battle…or has it? The company is in the #2 position behind $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.45% ) YouTube and has lost share since 2023, when it had 8% of TV time. Pull in total TV viewing, and Netflix falls to fifth place, even before Fox acquires Roku. So, why is this moment a golden opportunity for Netflix? I’ll get to that in a moment. Why Netflix Has an Opportunity Today OK, so I called this Netflix’s big moment. Why? Because the competition is distracted. The companies Netflix should fear most in streaming have priorities elsewhere. Let’s go through them one by one. YouTube (Alphabet) Alphabet

There was no press release or fanfare, but last week was more consequential to the future of autonomous driving than any week in recent memory. Waymo and $Uber(UBER)$ broke up. They’re still working together in Austin and Atlanta, but there’s now a clear business model split between the two. In a lot of ways, clarity is important. Waymo has a clearer path forward as it scales the business around the U.S. and globally. Uber knows it can’t rely on Waymo either, but it also puts pressure on the partners Uber is betting on. With new technologies, getting the business model right is more important than getting the technology right, so this moment is crucial. As an owner of both stocks, I’m not surprised by the move and happy to see the shift. I think i

If it feels like the market is moving faster than ever, it is! Information moves faster, but so do companies. AI was a pipedream five years ago, and now it’s driving trillions of dollars in value. If you’re looking for the next hot thing, faster markets can be a great thing. But as a long-term investor, it can bring confusion to decision-making. In these digital pages, I try to explain how I’m investing with a long-term focus using strategy and financial results, but sometimes that doesn’t translate to the performance I aim for because hype and short-term dynamics win the day. Today, I want to show how the speed of the market has changed over the past century and why keeping our heads is more important than ever. Everything Happens Faster Yes, the market is moving faster than ever, but put

There’s a fine line between charging a premium because you can and acting like a mobster to your customers. $Apple(AAPL)$ can charge a premium because people value their products more highly than competitors. On Shoes can charge a premium because it has a premium shoe brand among dozens of other choices. $Ferrari NV(RACE)$ can charge whatever it wants because…it’s Ferrari. That’s pricing power. The POWER is in the consumer’s CHOICE to pay more. Then there’s extortion pricing. Extortion is about power, but it’s about POWER over a customer that has NO CHOICE. Extortion is the crime of obtaining money, property, or services through coercion, threats, or the misuse of official power. Google This is impor

Why Everything In the Market Just Changed Debt will fuel the next phase of the market, for better or worse. The AI buildout has been driving the market in incredible ways over the past three years. Memory has exploded, fabs are going vertical, and equipment-makers are on a massive hot streak. S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ heat map over the past year. What’s unique about this moment is the scale of the value the market has put on all things AI. 45% of the S&P 500’s value is in AI-related stocks. And those stocks aren’t cheap. Over half of the S&P 500 trades for over 10x sales. This is something I’ve been concerned about for a while, but it’s taken a turn recently. Why? Debt at an unprecedented scale is now involved. More on that in a mom

$Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ ’s Gambit Mobileye is going to own robotaxis, which is a big risk. Mobileye made one of the most surprising announcements in the market this week. Instead of waiting for customers to adopt its Level 4 robotaxi software and hardware solutions — continuing the modular business model it’s been using for years — Mobileye is making its own robotaxi vehicle and ride-sharing app. Mobileye isn’t abandoning its old business model, but it is bolting on a high-risk vertical integration model. Upon further review, this makes a lot of sense, even if it’s not being done from a point of strength. Mobileye’s current business model is selling autonomy hardware and software to automakers, which is ultimately reliant on OEMs for demand.

The Week Ahead Here’s what I’m watching. The market has been in a strange place the past few weeks. Stocks seem to rise or fall rapidly depending on posts about negotiations with Iran, a fight that didn’t need to happen and has had little impact on the global economy, despite fears to the contrary. AI spending keeps rising, despite companies saying they aren’t seeing an ROI. And with all of my skepticism about certain segments of the market, earnings have been solid. So, here’s what I’m watching this week: Iran Peace Rate Cut Hope AI in Politics Valuations More on that in a moment. What I’m Watching It’s a light earnings week, so here’s what I’m watching most closely. Iran Peace Deal Markets are surging this morning after President Trump announced a deal with Iran that would open the Strai

Before I get to the SpaceX IPO, I’m going to be doing my regular State of the Portfolio series starting tomorrow. I hope this helps show what I do, and don’t, like about the stocks in the Asymmetric Portfolio today. After a rough start to 2026, my regular reviews have me liking the long-term trajectory of most companies, and valuations are compelling, but that doesn’t mean the market agrees with me. That will be going to premium subscribers and will be completed in a series of articles over the next few days. Now, on with my thoughts on SpaceX’s IPO. The SpaceX IPO $SpaceX(SPCX)$ is going public on Friday with a stock price of $135 per share and a market cap of $1.77 trillion. To be honest, this is one of the wildest IPOs I’ve ever seen. The debat

According to Cox Automotive, EV sales have dropped dramatically in the past 2 quarters (no surprise with the tax credit gone) in the U.S. What's interesting is that $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ and $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ are increasing supply in a market that's seeing demand destruction and interest rates are rising, putting further pressure on prices and demand. Why would buyers suddenly have interest in these EVs when they're trending to ICE vehicles already? It's a mix I wouldn't want to own. Disclosure: Short RIVN via long-term puts. I know, I know, I'm the Rivian hater. But come on! No one buying an SUV wants rear wheel drive! This makes it unusable anywhere it snows. Realistically, the R2 starts

The answer may shock you. One of the best quotes about valuation I’ve ever seen came from Sun Microsystems’ CEO after the dot-com crash. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking? Sun Microsystems CEO Scott McNealy How much of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is trading for this crazy valuation today? The answer may shock you. I’ll get to that in a moment. Stock Valuations This post from Thierry was what had me digging into valuations today. It’s true that we’ve normalized 10x price-to-sales multiples, but as long-term investors, we shouldn’t because it’s extremely difficult to live up to that valuation.

Shares of $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ surged this week on news that the company got a buyout offer from Peoples Incorporated, formerly known as IAC, the name I’m going to use here. The offer is for all of MGM for $48.30 per share. Here is the letter in full: Dear Members of the Board of Directors: People Incorporated (f/k/a IAC) began investing in MGM in 2020, based on our view that it represents a durable growth business not easily displaced by technology. We believe that MGM’s assets and businesses are not currently realizing their full potential in the public markets and that it will be difficult to correct this situation in MGM’s current form as a public company. Accordingly, we would like to work with MGM to agree on a transaction in whic

One of the things you develop after a few decades of investing is battle scars and a historical view of where we are today. History never repeats, but it often rhymes. As we’ve watched some of the absolutely crazy stock performance in 2026, I think it’s important to give some of that historical context to some parts of the market. I don’t know how this all ends, but I know how it’s ended before. I’ve seen these growth numbers. I’ve felt the investor confidence. And I’ve learned lessons along the way. The Market’s Rocket Ships Today, the market is bidding up all stocks related to AI, semiconductors, rockets, and dreams. Some of the stocks rising rapidly are seeing outstanding earnings, and we could debate if those are sustainable or not, but others are spending money at a growing clip to fu