There are values in any market.At times like this, they’re just hard to find.We’re in the “hard zone” today as the stock market bounces near all-time highs, and FOMO (fear of missing out) has hit everything from AI stocks to meme coins.I’m seeing fewer opportunities today than I have in years, even in companies I like long-term. The business matters, but as a buyer, so does the price I pay.But some values do exist.There’s one simple way to know if a stock is a great value for long-term investors. Is management aggressively buying back shares or not? If they are, it’s time to pay attention, and I’ll give two great examples of using buybacks as a weapon against an undervalued stock.The Dangers of High ValuationsLet’s start on the bubbly side.Stocks that get the most attention in the media ar

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Based on trends so far in Q4, Coinbase will report the best trading quarter since December 2021.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ Financial services are growing at a 100%+ pace right now. What's to stop the momentum?ImageAt the same time, I'm not optimistic about cable's future.$Comcast(CMCSA)$ It's hard to overstate how quickly cable is declining.I think fall 2025, when ESPN goes over the top, will be the end.ImageInvesting Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors.Image

A key to my bullishness on $Walt Disney(DIS)$ is the theory ESPN (in which Disney has an 80% stake) will win the sports streaming market by a mile. Streaming follows the smiling curve, which I’ve laid out below, and there will likely only be one or two winners.In sports, it may be ESPN and everyone else way behind.I think streaming ultimately looks like this: $Netflix(NFLX)$ : General entertainment streamer with something for almost everyone across the globe. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ : Leading position in niche markets of sports, kids’ entertainment, and differentiated content (Disney animation, Marvel, Star Wars, etc). These three large niches and they’ll be bundled tog

Has any stock over a $10 billion market cap had positive returns for the 24 months after trading for 100x revenue? $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ crashedAny others? If $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ gets there it may be an asymmetric short opportunity. 🤷How do you find great investment ideas? 1. Take your spouse's credit card statement2. Rank by $ spent and # of line itemsGo through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom.

Before I get to what I’m doing, let’s look at why I’m not particularly excited about this market overall. The P/E ratio of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ is higher than at any point outside of the 2000 dot com crash, the financial crisis, or COVID.There are currently 16 stocks with a market cap of over $5 billion and a price-to-sales multiple over 30, including the most valuable company in the world. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $Texas Pacific Land(TPL)$

Is the $7,500 tax credit a big deal for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ? Model Y Lease PricingWith Tax Credit & "Gas Savings": $481/moWithout credit and savings: $750/moA 56% increase! Yikes!Some of my best investments have been undervalued because investors thought, " $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Will Crush Them". The next decade will be a story of scaling niche businesses profitably, not giant tech companies doing everything.Buy stocks with upside you don't have to pay for.

Everyone is freaking out about $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ getting into telehealth today.I think Amazon will fail, but it's important to explain why.Vertical vs HorizontalIndustries often shift between vertical business models winning to horizontal business models winning and back and forth.Why did $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ beat $Intel(INTC)$ ? TSMC was horizontal and Intel was vertical.Why did $Apple(AAPL)$ beat $Microsoft(MSFT)$ in mobile? Apple is vertical and Microsoft is a horizontal services company.We can even go back to $IBM(IB

1. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ 33.2% growth in Q3 (not seen on this chart yet) continues an incredible pace of revenue growth for On Holding.Image2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify is the 1st stock I covered and the largest holding in the Asymmetric Portfolio. If this holds I’m going to need to celebrate.Image3. $Shopify(SHOP)$ I'm happy for the Shopify shareholders, but I can't get excited about paying 14x sales for the stock.Image4. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ Mgmt: Operating cash flow improved 31% Quarter-Over-Quarter (QoQ) reflecting improvement in margins, working capital efficiency, and leverage of existing inventory.Real

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Absolutely crazy Coinbase is up 375% since I wrote the Coinbase Spotlight and added it to the Asymmetric Portfolio. 3 stocks are now up 2x or more in the portfolio with a couple of others getting close.2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Palantir PLTR is trading for 49x sales and I'm worried my stock jumping 20% to a 3.5x P/S multiple is overvalued? This is why "NOT SELLING" is a framework of Asymmetric Investing.

The reason long-term thinking is important is we have no advantage over the hedge funds and day traders who think in hours, days, and weeks. Even Wall Street analysts and mutual fund managers have a hard time thinking further out than a quarter or two because that’s where their financial incentives lie.Thinking in decades allows us to tune out the noise. And elections are noise!This graphic from Schwab and Morningstar shows just how much $10,000 invested in 1948 would have returned under only Republican presidents, Democrat presidents, or staying invested 100% of the time.Staying invested rather than speculating on the market’s moves is almost always the right answer. It is simple but effective.The Obvious Answer Is Often WrongWhat’s wild is how often the obvious election narrative is wron

A company growing at 77% rarely expects its growth rate to ACCELERATE in the future. But that’s where we are with $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ .And still, the stock looks relatively undervalued by traditional financial metrics.77% Growth and AcceleratingThe healthcare industry in the U.S. is a mess, and Hims & Hers has the opportunity to disrupt the status quo by going directly to consumers. It’s not just a place to get pills; it’s a healthcare platform that gets better by getting to know you. In time, Hims & Hers will be able to treat more people with better service than a doctor’s visit and standing in line at the pharmacy today.From the Hims & Hers Spotlight:The average doctor visit is 18.9 minutes, and it’s impossible to exp

Warren Buffett’s Apple Sale and $325 Billion Cash PileOne of the big revelations that came out yesterday was Warren Buffett continuing to stockpile cash. The “insurance and other” segment cash pile grew to $320.0 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2024, and “railroad, utility, and energy” has another $4.9 billion in cash.This is more cash than $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ has ever had, and Buffett has been raising cash by selling stocks. The biggest sale this year is his massive stake in $Apple(AAPL)$ , going from $174.3 billion at the start of 2024 to $69.9 billion at the end of the third quarter.Why is Buffett selling? I thi

1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Deposits will be volatile, but look at this trend!Image2. $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ ENPH Will Enphase ever get back to where it was in mid-2023?Image3. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ The financial services growth is insane!Image4. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ On could 10x shoe revenue and still be smaller than $Nike(NKE)$ . But the immediate opportunity is growing apparel from nearly nothing today.Image5. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Hims & Hers reports earnings next week. What are you expecting?Image6.

How do you find great investment ideas? 1. Take your spouse's credit card statement2. Rank by $ spent and # of line itemsGo through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom.It's OK to fail.We don't talk about this enough.Risks entail upside.It also involves downside risk.Most businesses fail.That doesn't mean the founders are failures.Embrace failure when it arrives.Learn from it.And try again.I love seeing my stocks go up, but I'm starting to get uncomfortable with the market's valuation.This is why I have frameworks. I'm not timing the market, just buying the best stocks I can every month.

The earnings firehose is on full blast this week, and the market can often react wildly to earnings based on analysts’ revenue and EPS guesses or a number here or there.But that knee-jerk reaction may not reflect how you think a quarter looked, especially if you’re following Asymmetric Investing frameworks.After 29 years of investing, here’s how I try to process every earnings report, and I think you’ll be a better investor if you do the same.Read the earnings report BEFORE looking at the market’s reaction or how results compared to analyst estimates. Forming your own opinion based on your thesis and long-term outlook is key.Listen to the conference call, if possible. This is your chance to get to know management and understand the nuances of the business. A good leader shows command of th

1. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ ✅ Revenue up 30% to $697.1 million✅ Net income $58.1 million ($0.05 EPS)✅ Raise FY guidance...AGAIN!🤔 Stock down 11%? Anthony Noto is one of my favorite CEOs.Image2. $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ Eli Lilly's multiples are insane for a tech company. FYI, Eli Lilly is NOT a tech company.Image3. $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ This is the problem with buying high price stocks. Even AMAZING results are punished.Image4. $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ I don’t get why everyone is obsessed with TransMedics?

The simple answer is often the best answer. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ has the tech and (more importantly) distribution to win in an age of AI. Quibble about the details, but don’t lose sight of the big picture. Google is winning and will continue to win.Just finished my Q3 earnings remarks highlighting extraordinary momentum across the company and our differentiated full stack approach to AI innovation - robust infrastructure, research + models, and products + platforms. A few highlights: 1.Gemini API calls, token volume, consumer usage, business adoption - all growing dramatically. And all 7 of our products and platforms with 2B+ monthly users use Gemini models, including the newest 2B-user pr

1. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ SoFi reports earnings tomorrow. Three straight quarters of net income, will this be the fourth in a row?Image2. $Crocs(CROX)$ Crocs only trades for 10x earnings because the HEY DUDE brand has been in decline for a year. Will management point to a turnaround tomorrow during earnings?If HEY DUDE grows even a little, this stock should have a 15x P/E or higher.Image3. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Did you know Google's ad revenue is growing faster now than when ChatGPT came out? What AI disruption?Image4. $McDonald's(MCD)$ McDonald's raised pri

Over the past five years, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ has generated a total return of 108.2%. Short-term government bonds would have generated positive returns no matter the duration. $Nike(NKE)$ would have lost you money! $Starbucks(SBUX)$ would have lost a similar amount if it wasn’t for the recent bounce when former $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ CEO Brian Niccol was announced as CEO.What went wrong at these companies? There were operational problems, but let’s start with what investors were paying. You can see below that shares of both Nike and Starbucks were trading for over 30x earnings for much of the past five years. Even toda