The stock market dropped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it was lowering short-term interest rates. The big surprise is the Fed expects inflation and unemployment to both rise in 2025.What happened to the booming economy we were promised?The truth is, there are a lot of unknowns and a lot of factors outside of the Fed’s control. Tariffs could cause more inflation. AI could cause more efficiency…and layoffs. Fewer regulations could spur economic activity…and jobs. Credit card debt is rising. And on, and on.No one knows exactly what will happen. And that uncertainty (periodically) causes a panic in the market. This panic appears to have only lasted a few hours, but the next one could last for months.In many ways, the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place trying to figure o

1. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ Selling shovels during the autonomous vehicle gold rush.Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Alphabet's investments are up more than 10x in the past decade.Image3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ As long as the story is about the future, Tesla never needs to deliver in the present. This is Elon's brilliance. He keeps moving the goalpost and never has to deliver solar+storage+EV (2016), 50% EV growth (2020), FSD (2016-present), and on and on.4. $Apple(AAPL)$ Who is buying a no-growth company at an earnings yield half of treasuries?Image

Today’s deep dive is on $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ and $Uber(UBER)$ . This is an unusual spotlight because it highlights two companies, but given the similarities in their business models, I think it’s appropriate to cover them in a basket. I’ll explain below why I think owning both is the proper strategy, rather than betting on one over the other.Started in 2009, Uber offers ride-sharing, food delivery, and freight services to businesses and consumers around the world.Started in 2007 and rebranded as Lyft in 2013, Lyft offers ride-sharing and some food delivery in the United States and Canada.Why Stock Lyft and Uber? In ~100 WordsRide-sharing is a “winner-take-most” market that lives by the laws of the smiling c

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ I spend a lot of time trying to learn about the companies disrupting Google.Every discussion seems to come back to 2 things:1. Google has the most/best consumer touch points.2. Google has the best infrastructure.I like it at 20x forward earnings. KISSImage2. $Apple(AAPL)$ This business trades for 40x earnings...Image3. $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ The valuation is making my head spin, but how do you sell this business?Image4. $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ SoundHound has a $5.5 billion valuation, is losing money like c

At any time since 2007, when $Netflix(NFLX)$ ’s streaming business launched, a market-crushing thesis could have been “streaming is the future.”I started buying shares of $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ in 2014 on the simple idea that every police officer should have a body camera and all of that data will likely end up in the cloud (Axon’s cloud). There were bumps along the way, but that simple high-level thesis led to incredible returns.“I like my $Apple(AAPL)$ iPhone” was a pretty good investment thesis going back as far as 2007.I remember sitting in my apartment in 2007 listening to a friend rave about $Lululemon Athletica

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ This growth chart isn't exciting, but growing revenue double-digits at this scale is extremely impressive.Image2. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ USDC market cap is up over $5 billion in the past month.Image3. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood's HOOD Incredible Momentum ContinuesRobinhood held its first Investor Day today and released some November data early. Just astounding growth. This is from the filing:ImageAssets Under Custody grew to more than $190 billion (up over 15% from October 2024, up over 100% year-over-year), driven in part by customer Net Deposits of over $5 billion in Novem

U.S. consumers drive 70% of the U.S. economy and are ultimately the economic engine of the world. So, when consumer spending is strong, it’s good for the market.Depending on where you look, you could spin a story of an extremely strong consumer or a weakening consumer on the brink of collapse. The market has landed on the “consumer is strong” side, but I want to show a more complete — and confusing — picture.If you look at $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ , all is well, and growth is picking up.But remember, Walmart is the biggest discount retailer, and it does well when consumers are looking for value.Maybe a better indication of consumer sentiment is $Target(TGT)$ ? And they’re showing weakness, including a poor quarter a

1. $General Motors(GM)$ Up 108% over the past year.Still trading for just 6x earnings.MASSIVE upside from Cruise (which no one is talking about)Image2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Over the past three years, Hims & Hers has a 75.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).Image3. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ For 22x earnings, you get the world's dominant search engine, YouTube, a cloud provider growing 30%+ per year, AND Waymo!ImagePS: It's OK to fail.We don't talk about this enough.Risks entail upside.It also involves downside risk.Most businesses fail.That doesn't mean the founders are failures.Embrace failur

There are values in any market.At times like this, they’re just hard to find.We’re in the “hard zone” today as the stock market bounces near all-time highs, and FOMO (fear of missing out) has hit everything from AI stocks to meme coins.I’m seeing fewer opportunities today than I have in years, even in companies I like long-term. The business matters, but as a buyer, so does the price I pay.But some values do exist.There’s one simple way to know if a stock is a great value for long-term investors. Is management aggressively buying back shares or not? If they are, it’s time to pay attention, and I’ll give two great examples of using buybacks as a weapon against an undervalued stock.The Dangers of High ValuationsLet’s start on the bubbly side.Stocks that get the most attention in the media ar

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Based on trends so far in Q4, Coinbase will report the best trading quarter since December 2021.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ Financial services are growing at a 100%+ pace right now. What's to stop the momentum?ImageAt the same time, I'm not optimistic about cable's future.$Comcast(CMCSA)$ It's hard to overstate how quickly cable is declining.I think fall 2025, when ESPN goes over the top, will be the end.ImageInvesting Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors.Image

A key to my bullishness on $Walt Disney(DIS)$ is the theory ESPN (in which Disney has an 80% stake) will win the sports streaming market by a mile. Streaming follows the smiling curve, which I’ve laid out below, and there will likely only be one or two winners.In sports, it may be ESPN and everyone else way behind.I think streaming ultimately looks like this: $Netflix(NFLX)$ : General entertainment streamer with something for almost everyone across the globe. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ : Leading position in niche markets of sports, kids’ entertainment, and differentiated content (Disney animation, Marvel, Star Wars, etc). These three large niches and they’ll be bundled tog

Has any stock over a $10 billion market cap had positive returns for the 24 months after trading for 100x revenue? $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ crashedAny others? If $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ gets there it may be an asymmetric short opportunity. 🤷How do you find great investment ideas? 1. Take your spouse's credit card statement2. Rank by $ spent and # of line itemsGo through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom.

Before I get to what I’m doing, let’s look at why I’m not particularly excited about this market overall. The P/E ratio of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ is higher than at any point outside of the 2000 dot com crash, the financial crisis, or COVID.There are currently 16 stocks with a market cap of over $5 billion and a price-to-sales multiple over 30, including the most valuable company in the world. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $Texas Pacific Land(TPL)$

Is the $7,500 tax credit a big deal for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ? Model Y Lease PricingWith Tax Credit & "Gas Savings": $481/moWithout credit and savings: $750/moA 56% increase! Yikes!Some of my best investments have been undervalued because investors thought, " $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Will Crush Them". The next decade will be a story of scaling niche businesses profitably, not giant tech companies doing everything.Buy stocks with upside you don't have to pay for.

Everyone is freaking out about $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ getting into telehealth today.I think Amazon will fail, but it's important to explain why.Vertical vs HorizontalIndustries often shift between vertical business models winning to horizontal business models winning and back and forth.Why did $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ beat $Intel(INTC)$ ? TSMC was horizontal and Intel was vertical.Why did $Apple(AAPL)$ beat $Microsoft(MSFT)$ in mobile? Apple is vertical and Microsoft is a horizontal services company.We can even go back to $IBM(IB

1. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ 33.2% growth in Q3 (not seen on this chart yet) continues an incredible pace of revenue growth for On Holding.Image2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify is the 1st stock I covered and the largest holding in the Asymmetric Portfolio. If this holds I’m going to need to celebrate.Image3. $Shopify(SHOP)$ I'm happy for the Shopify shareholders, but I can't get excited about paying 14x sales for the stock.Image4. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ Mgmt: Operating cash flow improved 31% Quarter-Over-Quarter (QoQ) reflecting improvement in margins, working capital efficiency, and leverage of existing inventory.Real