How do you find great investment ideas? $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ 1. Take your spouse's credit card statement2. Rank by $ spent and # of line itemsGo through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom.Keep in mind: Bear Stearns failed in March 2008 when unemployment was 5.1%Lehman Brothers Failed in

1. $Harley-Davidson(HOG)$ This shocked me. Livewire sold 117 electric motorcycles in Q1. Not 117,000. 117 TOTAL!Image2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I have a hard time wrapping my head around valuing TSLA as an AI company when the "founder" and CEO is raising $6 billion for another AI company.Image3. $General Motors(GM)$ This stock still trades for ~4.5x 2024 earnings guidance.Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1785018194261901801

Playing Defense AND OffenseI’ve never liked the term risk management. You’re either taking a risk or you’re it’s not, so “managing” risk seems like an oxymoron for investors.Instead, I like to think about understanding and taking an appropriate amount of risk for the moment in time. Right now, I am avoiding some of the most hyped names in the market trading for 50x earnings and 10x sales and instead adding companies trading for low multiples who may not be as impacted if the market turns south.If everyone else is being greedy, I want to be fearful.And with the U.S. economy growing at a paltry 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, inflation remaining at 2.8% in March, personal debt at an all-time high, and government deficits with no end in sight there are plenty of signs risk is rising as fas

On Tuesday, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ reported one of the worst quarters I’ve seen in years and Elon Musk doubled down on products that don’t have a proven business model or track record (FSD and Optimus). As Elon Musk said, the auto company “should be thought of as an AI or robotics company“. 🤷 Investors overlooked the flat revenue, falling margins, and negative free cash flow, pushing Tesla’s stock up 12.1% on Wednesday.24 hours later, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ announced a phenomenal quarter and doubled down on being a leading AI company…which it already is. The stock is down 12.8% as I’m writing.Season 6 What GIF by The Office Does Anything Matter?Speculation and FOMO are back and it’s impossible t

Today’s deep dive is on $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ . Not all asymmetric investing opportunities come from small, fast-growing companies; in this case, I see a big, powerful company with outsized growth opportunities in a few important markets.Why Alphabet? In < 100 WordsBuying Alphabet is a combination of buying one of the best business models in the world and the brightest technical minds.Search is the financial powerhouse that’s arguably the best business model ever invented and it lays the foundation for future growth opportunities in artificial intelligence, streaming, and autonomous driving.Like $Apple(AAPL)$ a decade ago, a combination of steady

Earnings day today. Here are four charts showing $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's trends and what to watch.We know deliveries dropped so I expect:1. Lower margins2. Increased inventory3. Low/negative FCF ImageImageImageImageHere's where it gets complicated: 1. Net income is down because of lower volumes and discounting.2. Operating cash flow is down because inventory is up, despite discounting.What do you do now?Reduce production volume? Cut prices even more? Manufacturing is hard.ImageDid they make the decision yesterday to "utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as the current platforms" to make a vehicle that will be in production next year? This doesn't seem like a well thought out plan...ImageOk, honest comment about autonomy and robo

1. $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ Are more buybacks coming? From Q4 2024 conf call: "we calculate an implied current trailing trading multiple of just 4.9x"Image2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ At this rate, Spotify will have over 1 billion users in 2027.SPOT selling off because $Netflix(NFLX)$ is selling off seems silly to me.Image3. $General Motors(GM)$ This chart doesn't even do buybacks justice because it's weighted average shares. In Q1, shares outstanding will fall below 1.2 billion...Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1781662559977755065

Failure to FrameworksI’m going to break this down into a few simple frameworks that inform my view on investing.Think In Decades — Like a Founder DoesOn Thursday, I told a story of how we explained REM5’s business model to prospective employees in an empty warehouse with nothing more than tape on the floor to signify where walls would go.This was foundational to my understanding of how founders and CEOs must look at their businesses and why founders are often behind 10x returns. It’s not enough to understand the financials, you have to think 5-10 years out about where the business is going.Vision and strategy is what makes the best founders and CEOs.Maybe a better way to put it is that financial metrics like return on invested capital (ROIC), revenue growth, margins, and free cash flow are

I give these examples to lay the foundation for failure being not only acceptable but necessary in many cases. It’s what these great investors and entrepreneurs learned from failure that led to their greatest success.Here’s a little bit of my story and why I may look at the world of investing differently than many other analysts.Two Face PokerIn 2006, I started a poker chip company called Two Face Poker. I spent ~$30,000 of my own money to build a custom poker chip mold and manufacture 20,000 poker chips that were of casino-level quality.I built the website. I set up drop shipping for cases and cards on the site. The branding was amazing.Poker was still booming, and I thought I had done everything to build a great poker chip business.I sold very few chips and the mold still sits on my desk

1. $Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.(LTH)$ The average Life Time Fitness membership costs $234 per month and net margins are ONLY 3.4%, or an $8 smoothie per month.What happens if there's a recession?Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Don't underestimate the long-term potential for Google Cloud.Image3. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ Gotta love a high growth rate matched with high margins.Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1780240670109708744

The stock market took a bit of a nosedive this week after inflation data came in hotter than expected and tensions began to rise in the Middle East.Over the past year, inflation has been the #1 concern for the market because it’s the main piece of data the Federal Reserve uses to determine whether interest rates should go up or down. In theory, lower rates mean higher stock prices.In reality, interest rates drive the stock market short-term and earnings drive the stock market long-term. And on the earnings front, the current inflation may not be bad news, which I’ll get to below. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ Inflation and Why I’m Not WorriedE

I have a crazy story about $XPEL, Inc.(XPEL)$ and auto films that show winners and losers in a market aren't always who you think.First, XPEL is a perfect example of "Business Models Matter". XPEL sells high-performance films but...it didn't develop any film technologyit doesn't sell proprietary filmsit doesn't manufacture filmsXPEL takes stuff other companies make and packages it with patterns to sell to dealerships and mom-and-pop shops. It's a sales and distribution company. THAT MODEL WON IN THIS MARKET!Here's what's amazing. I know the building and the exact line at $3M(MMM)$ that makes a lot of XPEL's high-end products. Because I worked there...In 2008, 3M had a booming automotive aftermarket busines

$General Motors(GM)$ Cruise vehicles are back in the Phoenix area, this time with a human driver behind the wheel.For now, the driver is fully in control and the vehicle is collecting data through its cameras, LiDAR, and other sensors. It’ll be a few months before people begin taking rides in an autonomous Cruise vehicle, but the vision of this becoming a big business is back on track.Meanwhile, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Waymo continues to rack up over a half million fully autonomous miles per month and recently expanded in Los Angeles and Austin, TX. And Elon Musk announced a $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robotaxi unveil