Waymo is scaling to city after city, but $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is falling behind, and very few vehicles today have “hands off” capability. Still, the foundation is being laid, and slowly but surely, there will be thousands, then millions, of autonomous vehicles on the road. Today, I want to give you an idea of why I like the positions I have in the industry and explain why, long-term, the aggregator/modular supplier models will win. Tesla’s Full Autonomy Is Delayed…Again We can’t start a discussion of autonomous driving without mentioning Tesla. In January 2025, I shorted Tesla stock via long-term puts, partly on the thesis that Tesla wasn’t going to reach full autonomy anytime soon, despite what Elon Musk said. Much of Tesla’s $1.4 trillion valuat

Between now and then, we’ll get a few more earnings reports, but early in earnings season, the news seems positive if a little muted. The market is back in positive territory, and the worst potential outcomes of everything from tariffs to Iran have rolled off investors’ backs. The good news for us is that April has once again been a turnaround for the market. More on that in a moment. Weekly Update April has been a rocket ship for the stock market for somewhat questionable reasons. The market was down because of the Iran conflict/war, and as that has moved toward a tentative ceasefire, the “risk on” trade took hold. It wasn’t earnings or great economic data that caused the pop, simply undoing damage that didn’t need to be done in the first place. Call me skeptical that this pop will hold.

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ has been one of my highest-conviction stocks for most of the past year, only to see its shares go through the market ringer. But the past few weeks, we’ve gone from market capitulation to euphoria as shares become semi-loved again. Sentiment hasn’t fully flipped, but it’s getting there, and I continue to think this is one of the highest potential stocks in the market. The reason shares are up over the past week is peptides. The FDA officially removed 12 peptides from “Category 2”, which meant they couldn’t be compounded, and scheduled a meeting in July with an advisory panel to discuss whether some of these peptides can be compounded again. This could be a huge deal. I called Peptides a 1,000x opportunity for Hi

An IPO used to be the start of a new era for companies. $Apple(AAPL)$ IPO’d four years after it was founded in 1980 with a $1.8 billion valuation. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ went public in 1986 as a relatively mature 11-year-old company with a $777 million valuation. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ went public three years after it was founded in 1997 with a $438 million valuation. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ went public six years after its founding at a $23 billion valuation. It used to be the case that companies would go public because they needed money on a scale that only public markets could offer. And in some cases it was a way to unlock value for

I’ve been in something of a rut for weeks. Maybe it’s writer’s block. Maybe it’s a weird market. It seems like stocks are slowly sliding lower while some kind of economic calamity is on the horizon. If the oil experts are right, oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$ could go to $200 per barrel, and an economic slowdown on a global scale would likely be a matter of time. If AI experts are right, we’re all going to lose our jobs and be irrelevant by the end of the year. And yet, the market doesn’t seem to care. And maybe that’s the right answer because both oil and AI fears are overblown. In fact, the market is welcoming a SpaceX IPO at a $2 trillion valuation, which is insane on so many levels. Surely, Anthropic or OpenAI are next, despite bu

TBPN x OpenAI 2 things can be true. 1. Amazing financial outcome for TBPN. I’ll never hate on anyone for getting a bag that big. 2. TBPN will wither and fade under OpenAI. It’s just reality. The entire TBPN experience was about fun, trust, and access. Now, the reason to watch is gone. What’s strategic marketing content and what isn’t? What’s done in service of OpenAI controlling the narrative or winning deals with customers or suppliers? The trust is already gone, IMO. I don’t hate the bag, but I do hate losing the old TBPN. Execs won’t feel the need to go on an independent show when it’s an arm of OpenAI media and I feel less need to watch. My 2c. Hope I’m wrong. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading o

How can one man create a billion-dollar business on his own? How can one man create a billion-dollar business on his own? That’s what the New York Times wanted to know about a little-known company called Medvi. The story has it all. AI. Fast growth. And the best part is an opaque business model that’s shady if not fraudulent. The article is a great example of how to create a story that gets clicks while missing out on the more interesting story underneath. Medvi is a great business today. But it’s probably unsustainable and may end up in a lot of legal hot water. It’s worth looking at what’s disruptive and what’s not about the Medvi story. Outsourcing and Drop Shipping I write a lot about aggregation and platforms, which are business model concepts known to be successful in technology. Wha

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as

Last week sent the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ into correction territory, which means it’s down over 10% from the all-time high. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is holding up a little better because energy stocks are doing well in 2026. While the market may only be down single digits, the Asymmetric Portfolio is down 27.3% in 2026. Why? Growth, tech, and anything software related is down big in 2026. Look at the S&P 500 heat map, and you can see the companies outperforming are primarily in energy, consumer defensive, heavy equipment, and utilities. Long-term, I don’t think these are outperforming industries, but over the last three months, they are. $Microsoft(MSFT)$

The common theme is I want to own companies playing offense, not defense. But defense does have its advantages in business, and this week, we saw how regulatory capture can be used to delay, if not prevent, disruptive businesses. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ saw just how powerful the banking lobby is and $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ sees opportunities blocked by the economics and incentives of regulatory capture. This dynamic isn’t new in business. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ had to get laws changed to operate in most states and $Uber(UBER)$ operated illegally in some instances, blocked by a legal monopoly taxis held. W

$On Holding AG(ONON)$ The market is giving long-term investors incredible deals if you know where to look. Today, On Holding is down 11% because of a CEO change. But the company is ✅ Compounding at 20%+ ✅ Expanding margins (now 63% gross!) ✅ Trading for just 3.3x trailing sales and 24x forward earnings estimates Even if there's a recession, wealthy buyers of On shoes will keep buying shoes, right? Long-term, this is a great risk/reward in apparel. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greate

“Buy the dip.” “AI is not a bubble.” “The economy has never been stronger.” As I look out on the landscape of the market today, I’m reminded of one thing. Most of the loudest voices in the room haven’t lived through the worst the market can offer. If you started investing at age 23 at the market bottom in 2009, you’d be 40 years old today. And the stock market over that period of time went almost straight up. Every dip was a dip to buy. There were no bubbles, unless you count crypto. And there were no real recessions (no, COVID doesn’t count). Contrast that to the market from 1998 (more than two years before the dot com crash) to the bottom in 2009. You could have beaten the market and still lost money. As I look around at what’s happening in the economy and geopolitics, I spend more time

If oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$ isn’t on your mind right now, it should be. We may be in for one of those generational moments in the energy industry as Iran and the rest of the Middle East sees both supply and transportation impacted. Here are some things I think I know that may be wrong. The U.S. Is a Net Oil Exporter If you haven’t spent time playing on the EIA website…maybe you won’t find this fun. But I think it’s fascinating. This is a table I’ve had bookmarked for more than a decade, and it tells a lot about what’s going on in the world of oil. For this portion, I want to focus on net imports. You can see that in 2005, the U.S. was a net importer of 12.5 million barrels of oil per day. Today, we’re a net exporter of 3.1 milli

This week, I built a tool to demonstrate how quickly wealth can compound depending on your starting balance, monthly contributions, and time horizon at different growth rates. The Asymmetric Portfolio, for example, started from nothing, and I invest $500 per month. If I generate a 15.0% annualized return, the portfolio would be worth $3.46 million in 30 years. After two years of returns closer to 30%…I hope I can beat a 15% return. But historically, that’s a high bar. You can see an image of the tool below and play with it yourself by clicking on the image. I don’t show this to show off my coding skills. I have none. And if you look closely, the numbers below are correct, but the graph is wrong, so AI is still making mistakes. I point this out because building this tool required exactly ze

Market Insights: Growth and Strategic Moves in Healthcare and EVs $HIMS could see significantly higher Q4 2026 growth than consensus, driven by acquisitions and new product launches, potentially hitting ~$1B in revenue. Meanwhile, $UBER’s partnerships and optional vehicle purchases highlight its strategy to commoditize suppliers, while $RIVN faces cash pressures and delayed deployments, making further deals likely. Strategic clauses and R&D spending point to Uber hedging its risk while accelerating autonomy initiatives. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Analysts are expecting a 22.4% Y/Y growth rate at Hims & Hers in Q4 2026. That might be wrong by a wide margin because: - Eucalyptus acquisition ($100M+ per Q) - Novo deal - Peptide la

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming

Finding 10x investments isn’t about running the best DCF model or guessing next quarter’s earnings better than the next guy. History shows that the market’s biggest winners have gotten their strategy right early and simply ridden massive waves to incredible heights. Maybe they didn’t know what they were doing at the time (ex. Google’s founders didn’t know what they had on their hands early on, whereas $Uber(UBER)$ founder Travis Kalanick did), but we can learn from the last two decades of investing to project out the next 10x (100x?) stocks. Today, I’m going to dive into how we should understand changes in discovery and distribution should be understood by investors and why, sometimes, going for scale above all else is the best strategy. Pre-Inter

In hindsight, the recession in 2008 was obvious. Consumers had gotten over-leveraged, and rising oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ prices eventually put too much pressure on the consumer to handle. Oil wasn’t the direct cause, but it was a sign of the peak, a push over the edge, whatever you want to call it. The parallels to this moment don’t end there. What else peaks in early 2008? You guessed it…jobs. Higher gasoline prices aren’t the cause of a recession, per se, but when they spike, it can lead to economic catastrophe. According to a BLS report on 2024 consumer spending, transportation accounts for 17.0% of the average consumer’s bills. If gasoline prices rise by 100%, that number may rise to 20% or more. And then compromises start