Memory Stocks Are Collapsing! Why? If you can't articulate the reason, you shouldn't be investing in memory. 1. Memory is a commodity and demand is inelastic, meaning suppliers have pricing power in an undersupplied market and are screwed in an oversupplied market. Right now, we're undersupplied, but for how long? 2. Memory is defined by huge capex cycles and capex is going up. Don't want to invest because you want to keep your high margins? Someone else will. $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ , $SK hynix(SKHY)$ , and $Micron Technology(MU)$ are all upping capex because they have to. Eventually, that leads to oversupply, see #1. 3. China isn't watching idly.

The product is wrong, the strategy is off, and now Apple is suing. I intended to publish an article on AI’s enterprise incentives yesterday, but it’s been expanded into much more after the drama of the last 72 hours. Since Thursday, ChatGPT released an update without a chatbot, on Friday, Apple sued OpenAI, and over the weekend, Sam Altman took on Elon Musk on Twitter. But before we get to all of that and how it’ll impact investors, let’s start with the weekly update. OpenAI Gives Up On Consumers? OpenAI updated its Mac app last week, and it told us more than they thought about the near-term future of AI. ChatGPT, as we know it, is dead. Enterprise AI and AI for “work” is the future, even for the product that reached a billion consumers faster than any other. This is what ChatGPT looks lik

Memory prices are worth following. The clear trend is that the parabolic rise in prices ended in April/May for most of memory. Possible Q3 revenue is down sequentially for memory-makers. (depending on how much of sales is spot) The biggest risk in the market right now is multiple compression. Any blip in revenue growth or margins and these multiples can come down really fast. There's trillions in value riding on hyperscaler capex growing for the foreseeable future... $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. When you see a person/group very bullish on a stock, it's easy to brush it off as a "meme" or "crazy". It's more profitable to ask yourself why they might be right

When $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ stock dropped to under $15 early this year the company was reviled for being untrustworthy and a one-trick pony in compounded GLP-1s. Those times of panic were an opportunity for long-term investors to understand the strategy and why AndrewDudum would do seemingly crazy things that upset Big Pharma. That’s what the two articles I wrote in those moments explained. But few went through the exercise of understanding Hims strategy or what the potential outcomes of a patent lawsuit really was. For those of you who read Asymmetric Investing in those brutal months and stayed invested or doubled down (like I did in the Asymmetric Portfolio) its days like this that show why research and conviction matter. Drowning o

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ raising $85 billion at peak hype is brilliant. They can now watch competitors scrounge to either dilute with equity or watch rising debt costs eat their business. I wouldn’t want to be a neocloud up against that beast. The Asymmetric Portfolio has been underperforming the market all year because I have no semi/memory/chip exposure outside of $GOOG. Frankly, I'm not buying the bubble. BUT now that we have a big selloff in bubbl-y stocks, I'm up 2% and the market is down 1%. Time will show the slow and steady approach of buying great companies at reasonable prices will win. FOMO has a bad connotation for a reason. On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day.

The Asymmetric Portfolio has been underperforming the market all year because I have no semi/memory/chip exposure outside of $Alphabet(GOOG)$ . Frankly, I'm not buying the bubble. BUT now that we have a big selloff in bubbl-y stocks, I'm up 2% and the market is down 1%. Time will show the slow and steady approach of buying great companies at reasonable prices will win. FOMO has a bad connotation for a reason. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold! Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off