No investor has epitomized 2026 like Leopold Aschenbrenner. Through June, his $48 billion (at the time) hedge fund, Situational Awareness, was up 439% after fees, an incredible run by any measure. This morning, Situational Awareness blew up. What happened and what can we learn about leverage, buying dips, and investing today? That’s what I’m going to dig through today. Blowing Up In 2009, I was in MBA school and interned for a hedge fund in the Minneapolis area that did a little bit of everything. There was market making, high-frequency trading, options positions, and even leveraged bets on commodities. It was a whirlwind of a learning experience, and at the end, I sat down with the owner, who had been in hedge funds for ~30 years. We talked for over an hour, but one thing stuck out to me:

One of the most profitable companies in the world went free cash flow negative in the second quarter, and investors are worried. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.34% ) shares are down 20% from their high in May, and there’s good reason to ask some serious questions. No, the market isn’t worried about where Alphabet is going to get the $200+ billion it’ll spend on capex this year or the (maybe) $300 billion it’ll spend next year. There’s a great cash flow business to fund most of that, and debt can fill the rest of the gap. The market is worried that the return on Alphabet’s spending and the spending of every hyperscaler and neocloud will have low or no return at all. ~$1 trillion in spending this year, and even more next year, needs to generate a return. As

From biotech catalysts and consumer brand momentum to EV valuation debates, these three stocks highlight how investors are focusing on very different opportunities—and risks—across today's market. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ BPC-157 isn’t a done deal but it’s getting close. This could be another catalyst for $HIMS, the biggest position in the Asymmetric Portfolio. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ I don’t know what these are but I kind of want them. 3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ What multiple would you put on a company growing revenue at 0.5% annually with declining margins? Does 12x sales and 295x earnings sound fair?

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud results are incredible, but the rest of the revenue was pretty ho-hum. Alphabet going negative FCF seems like a turning point in this buildout. I don't know if it's good or bad, but if they're willing to go into debt to win... I wouldn't want to be a competitor. 82% growth for Google Cloud is crazy, but we have crossed the critical FCF going negative. Seems like something. PS: What are your weaknesses as an investor? Create constraints around them. I am terrible at timing the market when I buy and my biggest mistake is selling a great company early. Solution: 1. Buy once per month 2. Default to "never sell" Keep it simple. Sentiment is correlated with a sto

Buybacks are one of the most underappreciated ways companies can generate value for shareholders. A well-executed buyback can rapidly reduce the denominator in earnings per share, but the timing and pace of the buyback are important. Most buybacks are done when stock prices are high and business is good. Effective buybacks are executed when valuations are low and before the market “re-rates” the stock (i.e., increases the multiple). If that’s when the buyback is done, it can be rocket fuel for a stock. Here are 4 stocks I own that need to announce large buybacks today, ahead of potential turnarounds in their businesses. $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ ( ▼ 0.58% ) $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ ( ▲ 0.03% )

The key question for all three: can earnings growth drive future upside while valuations expand? $GOOG, $DUOL, and $NFLX offer three different answers. 1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Analysts are expecting Alphabet's operating cash flow to nearly double over the next 2.5 years. 2. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Everyone has to learn Chinese if Kimi takes over or what? 3. $Netflix(NFLX)$ $NFLX was $86 when I posted this. Getting closer to a buy after this drop. At some point, Netflix will be an amazing buy. But at 38x FCF, I don't think a company growing revenue in the mid-teens is in "no-brainer" territory yet. PS： Investing Over-Simplified If you can explain how the stocks you own

$Uber(UBER)$ is expanding its business again, this time into more markets for delivery with the acquisition of Delivery Hero. From Uber: Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) has entered into a business combination agreement with Delivery Hero, extending the world’s largest mobility and delivery platform to a total of 99 markets, with combined pro-forma Gross Bookings of $236 billion in 2025. Under the terms of the voluntary takeover offer, Uber will offer Delivery Hero shareholders cash consideration of €41.50 per share (the “Offer Price”), representing an Equity Value1 of $14.8 billion (implied for 100% of the company), or $13.7 billion adjusted for Uber’s prior stake purchases. Delivery Hero has entered into a separate agreement with SSW Partner

From Disney's enduring moat to Micron's valuation debate and GM's economic warning, these three charts highlight the themes investors should be watching right now. 1. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Understanding Disney is about understanding the parks business. What's the magic? Why are parks a generational experience? Why is Disney World better than Universal, even though Universal is new?!? Understand that and you'll get what drives Disney and will for decades. 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$ Built a simple model on fiscal_ai valuing Micron. 2028 and 2029: EBIT Magin: 50% (above historical average) CapEx/Revenue: 15% (below historical average) Implies an 80% downside from here. 3. $Gene

One of the things I’ve learned in 30+ years of investing is how important history is in analyzing companies. Understanding what has happened in the past, why it happened, and what the results were can inform what’s likely to work in the future. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got right. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got wrong. And that brings me to $Walt Disney(DIS)$ , a company whose history I covered in-depth in the Disney Spotlight. But I may have focused my history lesson on the wrong area. I focused on Disney’s entertainment history and the ebbs and flows of content creation, which come and go every decade or so. What I didn’t focus on was the history of Disney’s parks and how it was the parks that have always been the driver o

$Netflix(NFLX)$ has lost momentum, and here's an opportunity to get it back. Netflix has seemingly won the streaming battle…or has it? The company is in the #2 position behind $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.45% ) YouTube and has lost share since 2023, when it had 8% of TV time. Pull in total TV viewing, and Netflix falls to fifth place, even before Fox acquires Roku. So, why is this moment a golden opportunity for Netflix? I’ll get to that in a moment. Why Netflix Has an Opportunity Today OK, so I called this Netflix’s big moment. Why? Because the competition is distracted. The companies Netflix should fear most in streaming have priorities elsewhere. Let’s go through them one by one. YouTube (Alphabet) Alphabet

There was no press release or fanfare, but last week was more consequential to the future of autonomous driving than any week in recent memory. Waymo and $Uber(UBER)$ broke up. They’re still working together in Austin and Atlanta, but there’s now a clear business model split between the two. In a lot of ways, clarity is important. Waymo has a clearer path forward as it scales the business around the U.S. and globally. Uber knows it can’t rely on Waymo either, but it also puts pressure on the partners Uber is betting on. With new technologies, getting the business model right is more important than getting the technology right, so this moment is crucial. As an owner of both stocks, I’m not surprised by the move and happy to see the shift. I think i

If it feels like the market is moving faster than ever, it is! Information moves faster, but so do companies. AI was a pipedream five years ago, and now it’s driving trillions of dollars in value. If you’re looking for the next hot thing, faster markets can be a great thing. But as a long-term investor, it can bring confusion to decision-making. In these digital pages, I try to explain how I’m investing with a long-term focus using strategy and financial results, but sometimes that doesn’t translate to the performance I aim for because hype and short-term dynamics win the day. Today, I want to show how the speed of the market has changed over the past century and why keeping our heads is more important than ever. Everything Happens Faster Yes, the market is moving faster than ever, but put

There’s a fine line between charging a premium because you can and acting like a mobster to your customers. $Apple(AAPL)$ can charge a premium because people value their products more highly than competitors. On Shoes can charge a premium because it has a premium shoe brand among dozens of other choices. $Ferrari NV(RACE)$ can charge whatever it wants because…it’s Ferrari. That’s pricing power. The POWER is in the consumer’s CHOICE to pay more. Then there’s extortion pricing. Extortion is about power, but it’s about POWER over a customer that has NO CHOICE. Extortion is the crime of obtaining money, property, or services through coercion, threats, or the misuse of official power. Google This is impor

Why Everything In the Market Just Changed Debt will fuel the next phase of the market, for better or worse. The AI buildout has been driving the market in incredible ways over the past three years. Memory has exploded, fabs are going vertical, and equipment-makers are on a massive hot streak. S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ heat map over the past year. What’s unique about this moment is the scale of the value the market has put on all things AI. 45% of the S&P 500’s value is in AI-related stocks. And those stocks aren’t cheap. Over half of the S&P 500 trades for over 10x sales. This is something I’ve been concerned about for a while, but it’s taken a turn recently. Why? Debt at an unprecedented scale is now involved. More on that in a mom