Investing Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ ImageYou won't beat the market if no one thinks you're a little crazy.90% of beating the market is really just:Buy great companiesDoing nothing for YEARSProfitIt's harder than it looks, but the formula is simple.https://twitter.com/Travi
Travis Hoium
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The Reason Behind Investing in Big Names
One of the things I try to do is understand why things have worked out the way they have in the past.I’ve written a lot about how formerly strong brands like $The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ , $BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD.(BDWBY)$ , and $Coca-Cola(KO)$ have lost their power position, as limited shelf space that drove supply’s advantage shifted in an internet world of unlimited shelf space.But where are the opportunities?A simple screen of the stocks that have generated a 25% compound annual return (25.9% is a 10x in 10 years) shows that most of the big companies on the list were household names a decade ago. And yet, they still generated huge returns.Even if we loo
The Reason Behind Investing in Big Names
Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA
1.SPOT $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify's user base has increased at a 26.6% compound annual growth rate.ImageA year ago, I wrote that SPOT had 10x potential over the next 10 years. 1 year in, the stock is up 118.4% and I'm more bullish than ever. 2.DIS $Walt Disney(DIS)$ As the parks go, Disney goes.Image3.NVDA $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's data center business didn't exist a decade ago. Insane!Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1775558658186695161
Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA
Investing Over-Simplified
Investing Over-Simplified
Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around
$Walt Disney(DIS)$ hasn’t been the most popular stock over the past year and that’s understandable for a lot of reasons. Films have been disappointing, cable TV is dying, and the streaming business is losing money like crazy.But in the August 2023 spotlight of Disney, I laid out how the company could be a leader in streaming everything from proprietary IP to sports with an experiences business attached.Q1 2024 financial results showed Bob Iger is not only taking Disney in that direction, but he may be burning some bridges along the way.First Things FirstAt a high level, the quarter was about treading water on the top line and cost cuts on the bottom line. The cuts were deeper than expected and that’s why the market reacted positively to the quarter
Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around
Google Flexes Its AI Muscles
Whether the market realizes it or not, the biggest news of the week was $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ earnings report. The company told us search continues to grow, Gemini is taking market share, and Google Cloud is becoming a behemoth.Despite the momentum, Alphabet stock trades at the lowest P/E multiple of any Mag7 stock and about one-third than owning the market overall. The market’s perception is that Alphabet is being disrupted.I disagree.This is the fourth largest position in the Asymmetric Portfolio, and I think a decade from now, this will be seen as one of the “no-brainer” winners in AI. But that’s not the conventional wisdom today.Search Isn’t DeadLet’s start with search. The theory is tha
Google Flexes Its AI Muscles
State of the Portfolio - SPOT, COIN, PTLO, SPCE, ONON, ABNB, DIS, MGM, GOOG, CROX, Z, CELH
Below, I’m going to give an idea of where companies sit from a valuation, balance sheet, and growth perspective. These metrics aren’t all-encompassing and may miss some key information, but this is a snapshot to help you/me figure out where there are opportunities and what stocks may be worth trimming.If there is a market downturn, I want to own companies that can survive and ultimately thrive on the other side.Tomorrow, I’ll be back with Part 2.On Sunday, I’ll recap with some stats about the portfolio overall.1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify continues to perform extremely well operationally. The problem is, the valuation keeps getting higher and higher.When I first bought Spotify, the stock was unloved because it wasn’t a proven cash fl
State of the Portfolio - SPOT, COIN, PTLO, SPCE, ONON, ABNB, DIS, MGM, GOOG, CROX, Z, CELH
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
The stock market is weird.You can do a great analysis. Be correct about your thesis. And sometimes, the stock doesn’t react for months or even years.Eventually, fundamentals win, but short-term emotions and speculation drive the market.I’m seeing this dynamic play out in $ON Semiconductor(ON)$ . The company hasn’t released so much as a press release since earnings came out on August 13, 2024, and yet the stock is up 22.1% in that time. The market’s sentiment changed, but why?The Same StoryNothing about On Holding has changed in the past month.Nothing has changed in the past year.The company just keeps delivering steady growth quarter after quarter.Why is the stock up?I could spin a tale to tell you why shares are moving. Maybe it was
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
Elon Musk's $1 Trillion Gamble
Note: I wrote most of this before today’s Twitter meltdown by Musk and Donald Trump. I thought it was still relevant today, and maybe more so for investors. On with the story.Next week, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is expected to launch a fully autonomous robotaxi in the city of Austin, TX.This comes more than a decade after Elon Musk said 90% of Tesla’s miles would be autonomous.Will Tesla finally be fully autonomous? Sort of.From what we know, the City of Austin is requiring Tesla to have remote operators available at a moment’s notice. And a safety driver may be in the front seat.But if Robotaxis do indeed launch next week, it would be big news for all of autonomy. It impacts Tesla, and it impacts at least four of the biggest holdings in the Asymmetric
Elon Musk's $1 Trillion Gamble
The Bright Future For Hims & Hers Stock
One of the reasons $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ is in the spotlight again is a debate about the future of the company. Some investors are skeptical, and that’s why this is a high short-interest stock. But this is also a high-growth company in a potentially massive industry.Add it up and you get a company with revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion at its back. I love the positioning of Hims & Hers and continue to think the potential is 10x — or more — over the next 10 years.Growth & New ProductsI don’t build financial models in large part because I don’t think they are particularly useful when the long-term vision is clearer than a spreadsheet could tell us. This will make sense when I show analyst estimates, which
The Bright Future For Hims & Hers Stock
Optimistic Outlook: SPOT & DIS Show Strong Bullish Trends
1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ The premium business (green) gets most of the attention, but the upside for Spotify is advertising (blue).Today's Creative Lab along with “Quick Audio” to create scripts & voiceovers using generative AI is huge.Been talking about this for a year and it's finally here!Image2. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Took the kids to Inside Out 2 today. I don’t want to say “Disney is back!” But it was a solid movie with some big laughs and just enough emotion. Not as good as Inside Out 1 or Onward, but much better than Luca, Soul, Elemental, and Turning Red.https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1801663282018697591
Optimistic Outlook: SPOT & DIS Show Strong Bullish Trends
GOOG, SPOT, MSFT and COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends
1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Pull out Google Cloud and Waymo and you still have an amazing business with Alphabet's core. 2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ When a tech company gets religion about cash flow the turnaround can happen fast. 3. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ At the current rate of capex growth, Microsoft will be FCF NEGATIVE in ~2026. This is a company with falling ROIC trading for 12.5x sales. Makes you think... 4. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ A reminder that Coinbase is much more than an exchange business. And with the growth of USDC the stablecoin business is gett
GOOG, SPOT, MSFT and COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends
ABNB & COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends
1. $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ Investors are worried about growth, but 12% revenue growth and $4.5 billion in FCF in 2024 is pretty amazing.GBV rising 15% ex-FX indicates strong demand, although management sandbagged guidance, expecting 7-9% growth.Image2. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Massive quarter. 📈Transaction revenue nearly tripled sequentially.💸Stablecoins fell a bit because of lower rates and Binance entering the pool.💰Coinbase now has $9.3 billion in cash assets.More thoughts after the call.Image
ABNB & COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends
On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day
On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxes $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ If the future of healthcare is the personalization of treatments, why wouldn't a company that's built to personalize solutions be a winner?Moa
3M is doing badly in 2023
1. $3M(MMM)$ Earnings and FCF are strong because opex is down and efficiency is up.We're investing less in capex, so FCF > net income!Our demise is accelerating.I was at 3M from 2001 to 2008 when this demise began, but it's sad to see management run the business so poorly.Image2. $Verizon(VZ)$ Consumer ads is impressive but SG&A costs were up 11.7% and debt went up in the quarter. Conference call this morning but seems like a mixed bag.Image3. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ I don't think SPOT's video products get enough attention.They're like a back door to becoming a YouTube competitor.4. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ &
3M is doing badly in 2023
Robinhood's Meteoric Rise & Valuation Risk
Two things can be true. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ business can be on an absolute heater.AND Robinhood stock can be incredibly expensive.I don’t want to be held back by valuation, but valuation is something we need to consider as investors. When we buy stocks, we want valuation multiples to be a tailwind, not a headwind.Today, I want to balance Robinhood the business with Robinhood the stock, and how I feel today.Robinhood’s HeaterIt’s hard to argue with Robinhood’s results. The company is growing revenue over 50% year over year, and operating leverage on the business has been astounding, even after pulling out $424 million in one-time benefits in Q4 2024. It’s hard to over-value that kind of growth rate, even when you know it won’t last forever.New produc
Robinhood's Meteoric Rise & Valuation Risk
Google: The AI King
In 2015, Sam Altman and Elon Musk founded OpenAI in part out of fear that $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ would dominate AI if someone else didn’t get there first.When the ChatGPT moment hit in November 2022, the conventional wisdom was that Google’s moment of disruption had arrived. The company was behind in AI models, didn’t have compelling products, and was slow and unimaginative in releasing products.The criticisms were valid at the time.What Google did have was infrastructure and distribution. If it caught up on models and product, the threat could be snuffed out.The question was: Could ChatGPT become the go-to application for artificial intelligence before Google turned the search bar, Chrome, a
Google: The AI King
RGTI, SOFI & MGM Under Pressure
1. $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ Rigetti has $11.9 million in revenue and a $3.7 billion market cap.Even if quantum is the future, this is a bad stock to bet on because the fundamentals are so bad.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ If SoFi is becoming more of a platform company, facilitating loans through its "lending platform" like we saw with the $2 billion Fortress deal, that growth will show up here, not in lending revenue.Image3. $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ MGM stock is down 23% in the past year.If management just keeps the buyback level flat, it could reduce shares outstanding at a 20%/yr pace right now.Image
RGTI, SOFI & MGM Under Pressure
Back buying $NVDA but selling most chip and big tech stocks
Billionaire David Tepper's Portfolio UpdateBack buying $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ but selling most chip and big tech stocks. Also really likes ride-sharing.🤔Buying: $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $Uber(UBER)$ Selling: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Image PS: Sentiment is correlated with a st
Back buying $NVDA but selling most chip and big tech stocks
The top isn't representative of underlying value
Let's talk about falling stocks. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ This is a normal part of the market.The top isn't representative of underlying value.Neither is the bottom.Look at the long-term and position yourself for success over 10-20 years. A couple of months is mostly volatility.Stocks can ALWAYS fall more.Don't anchor your view of a company based on the top of the market.Understand where you think the market is wrong about the long-term. That's when you back the truck up.
One Asymmetric Crypto Opportunity: Why This Game Stands Out
You probably don't follow me for crypto takes and I don't post about crypto often anymore, so I'll keep this short. This is the one asymmetric opportunity I'm in.1. The team has been building the game for years through the bear.2. Economics and gameplay are innovative and only possible on the blockchain.3. Multi-chain and crypto isn't required to play, opening up the market.4. The assets seem extremely undervalued with YAKU at a ~$4 million market cap.Enough said.
One Asymmetric Crypto Opportunity: Why This Game Stands Out
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