The idea that we’ll use chatbots for everything we use apps and software for a decade from now is frankly absurd. Maybe chatbots will be more useful than they’ve ever been, but replacing all software with something like ChatGPT seems far-fetched to me. And in that sense, the SaaSpacolypse has been overblown. What will change is the business model behind the software we use. I think that’s undeniable, at this point. We’ve seen business model shifts in software, and they aren’t often smooth, but they can be moments of opportunity for investors. My childhood was spent putting floppy disks and then CDs into computers to install everything from games to antivirus software. Sometime in the late 2000s, that was replaced by downloadable software that ultimately led to the SaaS revolution. Instead
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Forget SaaS: The Real AI Opportunity May Be JaaS
Forget SaaS: The Real AI Opportunity May Be JaaS
Exponential Growth Squared
For those of us looking for signs of an AI bubble popping, there are no signs. Earnings coming out of chip, energy, and infrastructure stocks are incredible right now. As trillions of dollars are poured into the AI buildout, there seems to be no end to the exponential growth for the companies involved. It’s not just $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ that’s seeing growth and guiding for 🚀 demand. It’s $Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ to name a few. Anyone who can make a chip or build some energy is going to the moon. And that exponential grow
Exponential Growth Squared
Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA
1.SPOT $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify's user base has increased at a 26.6% compound annual growth rate.ImageA year ago, I wrote that SPOT had 10x potential over the next 10 years. 1 year in, the stock is up 118.4% and I'm more bullish than ever. 2.DIS $Walt Disney(DIS)$ As the parks go, Disney goes.Image3.NVDA $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's data center business didn't exist a decade ago. Insane!Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1775558658186695161
Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA
Investing Over-Simplified
Investing Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ ImageYou won't beat the market if no one thinks you're a little crazy.90% of beating the market is really just:Buy great companiesDoing nothing for YEARSProfitIt's harder than it looks, but the formula is simple.https://twitter.com/Travi
Investing Over-Simplified
It’s Over! Google has beaten OpenAI and ChatGPT
A year ago, if you wrote something nice about $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , someone would respond with something like, “They’re cooked. Ever heard of ChatGPT?”The sentiment around Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai was about as bad as it could get. He didn’t know how to innovate. Google was terrible at making new products. A “woke” culture couldn’t win in AI (see early Gemini images). Today, Google seems inevitable. And I’m struck by how simple the answer was and continues to be as an investor. Buy Alphabets stock and just hang on for the ride! The History of DisruptionThe negative sentiment around Google was always about disruption. ChatGPT was first to “figure out” the AI chatbot, and that would disrupt
It’s Over! Google has beaten OpenAI and ChatGPT
Regulatory Capture vs Disruption: $COIN $HIMS Challenge the System
The common theme is I want to own companies playing offense, not defense. But defense does have its advantages in business, and this week, we saw how regulatory capture can be used to delay, if not prevent, disruptive businesses. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ saw just how powerful the banking lobby is and $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ sees opportunities blocked by the economics and incentives of regulatory capture. This dynamic isn’t new in business. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ had to get laws changed to operate in most states and $Uber(UBER)$ operated illegally in some instances, blocked by a legal monopoly taxis held. W
Regulatory Capture vs Disruption: $COIN $HIMS Challenge the System
Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around
$Walt Disney(DIS)$ hasn’t been the most popular stock over the past year and that’s understandable for a lot of reasons. Films have been disappointing, cable TV is dying, and the streaming business is losing money like crazy.But in the August 2023 spotlight of Disney, I laid out how the company could be a leader in streaming everything from proprietary IP to sports with an experiences business attached.Q1 2024 financial results showed Bob Iger is not only taking Disney in that direction, but he may be burning some bridges along the way.First Things FirstAt a high level, the quarter was about treading water on the top line and cost cuts on the bottom line. The cuts were deeper than expected and that’s why the market reacted positively to the quarter
Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around
Google Flexes Its AI Muscles
Whether the market realizes it or not, the biggest news of the week was $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ earnings report. The company told us search continues to grow, Gemini is taking market share, and Google Cloud is becoming a behemoth.Despite the momentum, Alphabet stock trades at the lowest P/E multiple of any Mag7 stock and about one-third than owning the market overall. The market’s perception is that Alphabet is being disrupted.I disagree.This is the fourth largest position in the Asymmetric Portfolio, and I think a decade from now, this will be seen as one of the “no-brainer” winners in AI. But that’s not the conventional wisdom today.Search Isn’t DeadLet’s start with search. The theory is tha
Google Flexes Its AI Muscles
The Reason Behind Investing in Big Names
One of the things I try to do is understand why things have worked out the way they have in the past.I’ve written a lot about how formerly strong brands like $The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ , $BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD.(BDWBY)$ , and $Coca-Cola(KO)$ have lost their power position, as limited shelf space that drove supply’s advantage shifted in an internet world of unlimited shelf space.But where are the opportunities?A simple screen of the stocks that have generated a 25% compound annual return (25.9% is a 10x in 10 years) shows that most of the big companies on the list were household names a decade ago. And yet, they still generated huge returns.Even if we loo
The Reason Behind Investing in Big Names
State of the Portfolio - SPOT, COIN, PTLO, SPCE, ONON, ABNB, DIS, MGM, GOOG, CROX, Z, CELH
Below, I’m going to give an idea of where companies sit from a valuation, balance sheet, and growth perspective. These metrics aren’t all-encompassing and may miss some key information, but this is a snapshot to help you/me figure out where there are opportunities and what stocks may be worth trimming.If there is a market downturn, I want to own companies that can survive and ultimately thrive on the other side.Tomorrow, I’ll be back with Part 2.On Sunday, I’ll recap with some stats about the portfolio overall.1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify continues to perform extremely well operationally. The problem is, the valuation keeps getting higher and higher.When I first bought Spotify, the stock was unloved because it wasn’t a proven cash fl
State of the Portfolio - SPOT, COIN, PTLO, SPCE, ONON, ABNB, DIS, MGM, GOOG, CROX, Z, CELH
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