Memory Stocks Are Collapsing! Why? If you can't articulate the reason, you shouldn't be investing in memory. 1. Memory is a commodity and demand is inelastic, meaning suppliers have pricing power in an undersupplied market and are screwed in an oversupplied market. Right now, we're undersupplied, but for how long? 2. Memory is defined by huge capex cycles and capex is going up. Don't want to invest because you want to keep your high margins? Someone else will. $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ , $SK hynix(SKHY)$ , and $Micron Technology(MU)$ are all upping capex because they have to. Eventually, that leads to oversupply, see #1. 3. China isn't watching idly.
Travis Hoium
No personal profile
0Follow
1003Followers
0Topic
0Badge
Disney's Long Overdue Breakup
One of the things I’ve learned in 30+ years of investing is how important history is in analyzing companies. Understanding what has happened in the past, why it happened, and what the results were can inform what’s likely to work in the future. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got right. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got wrong. And that brings me to $Walt Disney(DIS)$ , a company whose history I covered in-depth in the Disney Spotlight. But I may have focused my history lesson on the wrong area. I focused on Disney’s entertainment history and the ebbs and flows of content creation, which come and go every decade or so. What I didn’t focus on was the history of Disney’s parks and how it was the parks that have always been the driver o
Disney's Long Overdue Breakup
DIS, MU & GM - Three Charts, Three Big Investment Themes
From Disney's enduring moat to Micron's valuation debate and GM's economic warning, these three charts highlight the themes investors should be watching right now. 1. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Understanding Disney is about understanding the parks business. What's the magic? Why are parks a generational experience? Why is Disney World better than Universal, even though Universal is new?!? Understand that and you'll get what drives Disney and will for decades. 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$ Built a simple model on fiscal_ai valuing Micron. 2028 and 2029: EBIT Magin: 50% (above historical average) CapEx/Revenue: 15% (below historical average) Implies an 80% downside from here. 3. $Gene
DIS, MU & GM - Three Charts, Three Big Investment Themes
Why Memory Stocks Are Suddenly Selling Off
Why Memory Stocks Are Suddenly Selling Off
Beginning Of the End For OpenAI?
The product is wrong, the strategy is off, and now Apple is suing. I intended to publish an article on AI’s enterprise incentives yesterday, but it’s been expanded into much more after the drama of the last 72 hours. Since Thursday, ChatGPT released an update without a chatbot, on Friday, Apple sued OpenAI, and over the weekend, Sam Altman took on Elon Musk on Twitter. But before we get to all of that and how it’ll impact investors, let’s start with the weekly update. OpenAI Gives Up On Consumers? OpenAI updated its Mac app last week, and it told us more than they thought about the near-term future of AI. ChatGPT, as we know it, is dead. Enterprise AI and AI for “work” is the future, even for the product that reached a billion consumers faster than any other. This is what ChatGPT looks lik
Beginning Of the End For OpenAI?
Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA
1.SPOT $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify's user base has increased at a 26.6% compound annual growth rate.ImageA year ago, I wrote that SPOT had 10x potential over the next 10 years. 1 year in, the stock is up 118.4% and I'm more bullish than ever. 2.DIS $Walt Disney(DIS)$ As the parks go, Disney goes.Image3.NVDA $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's data center business didn't exist a decade ago. Insane!Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1775558658186695161
Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA
Investing Over-Simplified
Investing Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ ImageYou won't beat the market if no one thinks you're a little crazy.90% of beating the market is really just:Buy great companiesDoing nothing for YEARSProfitIt's harder than it looks, but the formula is simple.https://twitter.com/Travi
Investing Over-Simplified
It’s Over! Google has beaten OpenAI and ChatGPT
A year ago, if you wrote something nice about $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , someone would respond with something like, “They’re cooked. Ever heard of ChatGPT?”The sentiment around Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai was about as bad as it could get. He didn’t know how to innovate. Google was terrible at making new products. A “woke” culture couldn’t win in AI (see early Gemini images). Today, Google seems inevitable. And I’m struck by how simple the answer was and continues to be as an investor. Buy Alphabets stock and just hang on for the ride! The History of DisruptionThe negative sentiment around Google was always about disruption. ChatGPT was first to “figure out” the AI chatbot, and that would disrupt
It’s Over! Google has beaten OpenAI and ChatGPT
Mobileye is going to own robotaxis, which is a big risk
$Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ ’s Gambit Mobileye is going to own robotaxis, which is a big risk. Mobileye made one of the most surprising announcements in the market this week. Instead of waiting for customers to adopt its Level 4 robotaxi software and hardware solutions — continuing the modular business model it’s been using for years — Mobileye is making its own robotaxi vehicle and ride-sharing app. Mobileye isn’t abandoning its old business model, but it is bolting on a high-risk vertical integration model. Upon further review, this makes a lot of sense, even if it’s not being done from a point of strength. Mobileye’s current business model is selling autonomy hardware and software to automakers, which is ultimately reliant on OEMs for demand.
Mobileye is going to own robotaxis, which is a big risk
Regulatory Capture vs Disruption: $COIN $HIMS Challenge the System
The common theme is I want to own companies playing offense, not defense. But defense does have its advantages in business, and this week, we saw how regulatory capture can be used to delay, if not prevent, disruptive businesses. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ saw just how powerful the banking lobby is and $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ sees opportunities blocked by the economics and incentives of regulatory capture. This dynamic isn’t new in business. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ had to get laws changed to operate in most states and $Uber(UBER)$ operated illegally in some instances, blocked by a legal monopoly taxis held. W
Regulatory Capture vs Disruption: $COIN $HIMS Challenge the System
Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around
$Walt Disney(DIS)$ hasn’t been the most popular stock over the past year and that’s understandable for a lot of reasons. Films have been disappointing, cable TV is dying, and the streaming business is losing money like crazy.But in the August 2023 spotlight of Disney, I laid out how the company could be a leader in streaming everything from proprietary IP to sports with an experiences business attached.Q1 2024 financial results showed Bob Iger is not only taking Disney in that direction, but he may be burning some bridges along the way.First Things FirstAt a high level, the quarter was about treading water on the top line and cost cuts on the bottom line. The cuts were deeper than expected and that’s why the market reacted positively to the quarter
Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around
Go to Tiger App to see more news