Investing Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ ImageYou won't beat the market if no one thinks you're a little crazy.90% of beating the market is really just:Buy great companiesDoing nothing for YEARSProfitIt's harder than it looks, but the formula is simple.https://twitter.com/Travi

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ hasn’t been the most popular stock over the past year and that’s understandable for a lot of reasons. Films have been disappointing, cable TV is dying, and the streaming business is losing money like crazy.But in the August 2023 spotlight of Disney, I laid out how the company could be a leader in streaming everything from proprietary IP to sports with an experiences business attached.Q1 2024 financial results showed Bob Iger is not only taking Disney in that direction, but he may be burning some bridges along the way.First Things FirstAt a high level, the quarter was about treading water on the top line and cost cuts on the bottom line. The cuts were deeper than expected and that’s why the market reacted positively to the quarter

The stock market is weird.You can do a great analysis. Be correct about your thesis. And sometimes, the stock doesn’t react for months or even years.Eventually, fundamentals win, but short-term emotions and speculation drive the market.I’m seeing this dynamic play out in $ON Semiconductor(ON)$ . The company hasn’t released so much as a press release since earnings came out on August 13, 2024, and yet the stock is up 22.1% in that time. The market’s sentiment changed, but why?The Same StoryNothing about On Holding has changed in the past month.Nothing has changed in the past year.The company just keeps delivering steady growth quarter after quarter.Why is the stock up?I could spin a tale to tell you why shares are moving. Maybe it was

1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ The premium business (green) gets most of the attention, but the upside for Spotify is advertising (blue).Today's Creative Lab along with “Quick Audio” to create scripts & voiceovers using generative AI is huge.Been talking about this for a year and it's finally here!Image2. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Took the kids to Inside Out 2 today. I don’t want to say “Disney is back!” But it was a solid movie with some big laughs and just enough emotion. Not as good as Inside Out 1 or Onward, but much better than Luca, Soul, Elemental, and Turning Red.https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1801663282018697591

Billionaire David Tepper's Portfolio UpdateBack buying $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ but selling most chip and big tech stocks. Also really likes ride-sharing.🤔Buying: $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $Uber(UBER)$ Selling: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Image PS: Sentiment is correlated with a st

Since June 19, 2024, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ stock is down 13.1%. Coincidence?Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price.If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad."Do as I say, not as I do." - probably Jensen Huang this morningImageWhat if you already had more money than you could possibly spend and you could easily borrow against your ~$100 billion stake? It’s just something to note. Elon sold $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ in late 2022 as well. Probably a coincidence demand and margins dropped shortly thereafter…https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1805258288348422245

1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robotaxis will generate 8-10 Trillion in revenues in 2030, half of which will go to platforms like Tesla says Cathie WoodCan we stop giving this person air time. In the U.S. people drive ~3.2 trillion miles per year. At $2.50 per mile (about the cost of Uber) you get to “$8-10 trillion”. Every mile in robotaxis that don’t yet exist? You think that’s happening in 6 years? 🤦2. $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ I want to like Roku's TV OS position, but if streaming consolidates to two major players (Netflix and Disney) what power does Roku have?Image3. $Zillow(Z)$ Everything you need to know about Zillow stock and its $1 trillion potential.4.

2023 isn’t over yet, so it’s not yet time to review the Asymmetric Portfolio’s performance quite yet.But as I start to look at the index comparisons with a week to go, they’re a little difficult to wrap your head around. The Asymmetric Portfolio started on May 1, 2023, and since then the portfolio is up 9.76% compared to an 18.35% total return for the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . Yikes!Compare it to the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ (see above) and the comparison is even worse.But are the S&P 500 or Nasadaq 100 the best comparisons?Maybe not given what a weird year 2023 was.2023 has been marked by a massive divergence between the Magnificent 7 and the Modest 493. If you aren’t familiar with the market’s lates

Apparently there’s an $Apple(AAPL)$ event happening right now? This shows why I’m selling. I used to watch these events religiously. Now, they’re mostly meaningless. Feels like there’s a paradigm shift coming, albeit slowly.Apple's P/S CAGR since 2016 is 13.4% and its P/E CAGR is 10.1%. ImageSentiment is correlated with a stock's price. If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad.https://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1787853346843316316

I know one of the more surprising stocks in the Asymmetric Universe is $General Motors(GM)$ .Why GM and not $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$? The answer was obvious to me. GM is so cheap it could generate strong returns from just buybacks, dividends, and multiple expansion. Cruise was the asymmetric upside. And it (still) isn't priced in. At TSLA, where is the upside? EV growth was priced in. FSD was priced in (even if it doesn't exist). Dojo, AI, robots all priced in. Asymmetric upside doesn't exist when you're already paying for the upside. At that point, risk is a bigger consideration.What happens when growth slows? Margins fall? No one buys robots? FSD stays in Level 2? The CEO leaves? It's all downside.Ask yoursel

$Apple(AAPL)$ 's market cap was up $230 billion this week.Will AI sell more phones?❓Will AI on-device become table stakes?❓Will AI on-device lead to fewer Google searches?❌Services is the only segment growing and $20 billion in revenue and profit comes from $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ search.Image4 factors drive stocks higher: 1. Revenue Growth2. Margin Expansion3. Multiple Expansion4. BuybacksGetting ahead of the market on any of these factors increases your chance of beating the market.https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1801940861124497589

$General Motors(GM)$ is now the worst-performing position in the Asymmetric Portfolio on a dollar basis, down $72.80 from a total investment of $401.99. This is tied for the most I’ve invested in any company along with $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$, so it’s an outsized loss.Cruise said it is not only pulling all fully autonomous vehicles from roads (which happened on October 26, 2023), it is pulling all vehicles from public roads. This is huge news and calls into question the future of Cruise itself. Here’s some background and what I think about Cruise and GM stock now.What Happened at CruiseI highlighted the acciden

1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood makes most of its money from "net interest revenue" like margin accounts and (now) credit card balances.Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google's AI Overview is the most useful AI product I've used.And it's built right into the default browser I already use for free.I don't see how startups beat the incumbent. Long GOOGPS: Valuation determines how your stocks will perform if you're right or wrong.I try to buy as much upside as possible for a reasonable price.Ex. Do you want?A: Company growing 40%/yr trading for 4x salesB: Company growing 20%/yr trading for 10x salesFaster growth and lower multiples allow for more positive