Hi Tigers,
Welcome to our Interview with Dream, a professional trader and content manager with 10 years investing experience.
@程俊Dream has held positions as Content Manager at wallstreetcn news. He currently serves as a special guest strategy lecturer for multiple exchanges.
Let's dive into his perspective on the gold futures and US stock market trend.
1. Could you share your investment journey with us?
I entered the financial market in 2007. In 2008, I was fortunate to capitalize on the first round of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US, making a successful trade with the Euro. A more recent satisfying trade was in 2019/2020 when I went long on $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ after it experienced a sharp drop during the early stages of the pandemic.
gold trend in 2020
Both the price and timing aligned with my expectations, resulting in substantial gains.
2. Why did you choose to trade futures? What’s the difference between trading futures and stocks?
Individual stock analysis demands more time, whereas once you become familiar with futures contracts, you can focus solely on them.
When it comes to trading choices, futures offer greater freedom in going long or short, along with ideal liquidity. Shorting stocks can be more challenging.
Additionally, futures have an advantage in terms of leverage. While stocks are more like long-term investments, futures tend to be more short-term and speculative.
3. What advice do you have for futures beginners? How should one approach learning about futures?
I recommend starting with standard trend-following contracts, such as the $Euro FX - main 2309(EURmain)$ and $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ for commodities. If transitioning from stocks, it's crucial to understand how leverage works.
From a technical perspective, there's not much difference between futures and stocks.
Each contract has its own characteristics, and once you become familiar with them, trading becomes more intuitive. Fundamentally, futures tend to have stronger macroeconomic correlations.
4. Are there any sectors or assets that you currently find promising?
My top choice is $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ .
I believe there will be a medium to long-term opportunity to enter around the $1860 gap. I've been waiting for this price level for a few months now, and I believe there's a chance it might happen in the third quarter.
For the latter half of the year, commodities are likely to break out from consolidation and volatility patterns, potentially in the fourth quarter or early next year.
The direction, upwards or downwards, will depend on the ultimate question: recovery vs.recession. I'm slightly inclined towards a pessimistic view as the overall environment doesn't seem to have substantially changed.
5. How long do you think pullback in US stock market will last? Is it a good time to buy the dip?
The risk-reward ratio for buying the dip in the current US stock market isn't favorable. Despite the recent correction, the market hasn't strayed too far from its previous highs, making both buying and selling somewhat awkward at this point. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$
It's difficult to precisely time the pullback, but pay attention to the US dollar's performance this week and the next. The current resistance levels for the dollar are at 103.6 and 104.7.
If the dollar breaks out and escapes the pattern of previous weekly rebounds followed by declines, the downward movement in the stock indices might be prolonged. Conversely, if the dollar surges and then retraces, ending the week on a low would signal a reversal.
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