As speculated, news of the conflict between Israel and Iran has subsided, which has prompted a pullback in gold, and you may have to wait for a while to chase higher. For gold trading this year, the importance of finding a good time and a low position is relatively high, and it is not easy to chase ups and downs.The correction of gold With a long green line on Monday to determine a larger pullback/retracement time span, coupled with the more violent fall of silver (it has also been recommended to short silver and long gold to deal with this round of market), we expect gold to be short in the short term will not Reverse quickly.But how to judge the low point of the callback that everyone is more concerned about? First of all, it is certain that it is likely that it will be difficult for sho

The situation in the Middle East has once again become the focus of the market in recent days, with some concerns about the conflict between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have shown signs of perseverance, it is more likely that there will be “big thunder, little rain”. At the same time, referring to the geopolitical conflicts and small-scale military operations that have occurred several times before, the financial market can basically digest the impact within a week, so short-term fluctuations are difficult to shake the market trend.In theory, gold and crude oil are naturally the most sensitive to this topic. Last Friday's rise and fall seem to have previewed the weekend's soap opera in advance: Compared with a real fight, it seems more cost-effective to make a tough statement to g

The bulls in the crude oil market that continued in the first quarter have helped the price return to the central axis level we defined. With the emergence of high pressure and the small deviation between US stocks and stock indexes, we expect that it will be more difficult for oil prices to go up. For low buy/long investments, now may be the time to at least partially lock in profits.At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, we introduced the composition of crude oil price range: above 95/100 is the level of selling crude oil reserves by the US government (Biden made clear), while below 70 US dollars is the level of buying back crude oil reserves. The 84 line in the middle of the two is defined as the central axis because of the obvious change of hands. Under the big shock m

From the market situation in the past few years, it is not difficult to find that the current US government has a very strong control over the financial sector, and their trading methods are also comfortable. Since the first quarter of last year, NVIDIA, the first AI concept, is still the leading core variety, and they have also promoted the overall bull market of US stocks. This year, another one pushed to the front desk is BTC, which is well known but not much involved.Once upon a time, many Wall Street giants also said that BTC was defined as a channel for fraud and money laundering. However, this thing has boarded the hall of ETF in a twinkling of an eye. It is obviously unreasonable to say that there is no intentional promotion from Biden administration. Behind this is naturally the f

At the end of the month, the news from the terrorist attacks in Moscow shocked the market again, and also caused investors to worry about geopolitical progress. So will this event become a new driving factor and dominate the market in the second quarter? My personal opinion is that the possibility is relatively low. Unless there are more actions and conflicts between the two sides, the market will digest this topic quickly.First of all, from the market feedback, at first glance, there is a certain degree of risk aversion, but in fact, the assets themselves still show signs of "fighting", which shows that the event itself is not of high magnitude. For example, the US dollar did rebound and rise, but as we said before, the US Dollar Index is in the form of diamond, so it is not necessary to

Except for those categories that have been fluctuating for a long time, most assets that performed strongly in the first quarter or even set a new record high have experienced weak upside in the near future. Interestingly, the two leading brothers who lead the rise are unexpectedly in the same pace in the medium and long term. With the emergence of adjustment, compared with the rapid and rapid sharp drop, the way that may be buffered by time is also an option.As we all know, NVIDIA is the standard-bearer of AI concept and the engine of the bull market of US stocks last year, and the crazy performance of Bitcoin in the past few months is obvious to all. Although there is a certain degree of correlation between the two, it is not difficult to find that such a high degree of positive correlat

When gold was in 1450 position, we had boldly assumed that the current bull market of gold could rise to 2200-2300. At that time, many people didn't understand that the Federal Reserve was about to tighten at that time, and there was no reason for gold to enter a big bull market. However, the power of the market itself (graph) still proves that the real relationship between supply and demand has been included in the market. Now, with the new high coming earlier than expected, we need to consider whether 2300 will still be the upper limit of gold.This is a picture that I like to show you in online and offline lectures over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have always been optimistic about gold. 2263 is the lowest bull market target price that gold can reach according to the pe

The suspense in the US stock market has settled with the rising of NVIDIA, the leading eldest brother, and the risk appetite continues to support the upward attack of bulls. At the same time, crude oil prices also slowly made a breakthrough, It is particularly worth mentioning that after a wave of rising in the weekend, gold returned to the vicinity of the previous historical high point. The competition here is expected to determine whether the bull market can restart in the near future.The 2090 area is the key price of gold triple head before, and it is also the watershed of long-short conversion after the record high. Interestingly, this Friday will be a new non-farm day. According to past experience, when faced with key support and resistance, risk events will also be potential driving

The star stocks in 2023 are still shining in the new year. Driven by the strong financial report in the fourth quarter, NVIDIA jumped sharply and opened higher and reached a new record high. However, the performance of making up the gap on the same day still left some hidden dangers. Will this trigger the arrival of the US stock market correction?As we all know, the main driving force of this round of continuous slow bull market of US stock is AI stocks, and NVIDIA is the leading figure. After the Lunar New Year, the short-term deviation between Nasdaq and S&P was also affected by Nvidia's three-day consecutive decline. In other words, if NVDA shows signs of head, it will probably trigger continuous downward pressure on US stocks.Fundamentally speaking, the beautiful data and expectati

In the past holidays, although most assets in the market I covered fluctuated to varying degrees, there was no sign of trend start from the final market results. First of all, on precious metals, gold tried a double dip and held its low level. There are two possibilities for the pattern of A-B-C in adjusting structure, the lowest or near 1930. However, considering the one-week reversal of silver last week, platform consolidation is not impossible. On the whole, in the rest of February, bargain hunting will be the main choice for gold. At the same time, it is also difficult for gold prices to quickly receive and pay the previous historical high of 2090. If tested here, it should be an opportunity to close long positions and possibly turn over.In crude oil, the market trend is not rapid, but

If you want to find a variety that is the most difficult to predict the general trend and direction this year, then crude oil must be on the list. Unlike most assets we looked forward to before, oil prices have been fluctuating within a relatively standard box since the end of 2022. Even if there are unexpected factors of production reduction/restriction and geopolitical conflict,However, the Biden administration is still ideal to "control" the price in the range of roughly 70-100 dollars. However, with the coming of the general election, the play and influence of the invisible hand of the United States may change.Selling crude oil reserves above $100 and buying crude oil reserves below $70 is Biden's previous clear operation against oil prices. In fact, the trend is perfectly in line with

Gold experienced a good year in 2023. Under the trend of first suppressing and then rising, gold finally set a new record high. However, the short-term short-selling market did not bring about sustained buying, but triggered obvious profit-taking. Although the trend in the beginning of the year is average, from the medium and long-term structure, it is more likely that gold will continue to slow down to a new high in 2024.From the seasonal situation, the continuity of gold after the new high is still ideal, and there is no historical case of false breakthrough. From the correction situation, the time span is usually in one quarter, not more than two consecutive quarters, otherwise the periodic trend has changed. From the absolute pullback percentage, the more common ratio is 10-15%, genera

It has always been one of the common methods in futures market to use the market fluctuations of local currency and foreign currency for internal and external hedging transactions. In the past year, the RMB exchange rate has been significantly high and low and has a good trend, which provides a good opportunity. So, will there be similar or better transactions in the new year?The fluctuation range of offshore RMB futures last year was 6.7-7.36, in which the high point was close to the high point of the previous year, while the low point was near the central axis of trading in 2022. The distinct price center made the logic of high throwing and low sucking very smooth. Coupled with the official media's article on suppressing RMB under 6.4 and the choice of singing more RMB above 7.3, investo

The first non-farm report for 2024 arrived as promised last Friday (although the data was still in December last year). The unexpected growth of employment population was suppressed by the upward pressure of hourly wage, and most assets in the market also showed cross star market under this mixed data. When the Fed's scheduled monetary policy will start is likely to need more data to support it.According to public data, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 216,000 in December, much higher than the widely expected 171,000. In the United States, the unemployment rate was 3.7% in December, and the wage increase in December exceeded expectations. The average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, which was consistent with the pre

With the arrival of Christmas holiday and New Year's Day approaching, the volatility of financial markets began to slow down as promised. For risky assets represented by US stock index, this situation is naturally a positive factor. However, after traders returning to the market, it remains to be seen whether the market will be triggered by events.The performance of the three major indexes of U.S. stocks in the past 1-2 weeks was stronger than expected. Although there was no short-selling trend, the overall bullish atmosphere remained good. Taking Standard & Poor's as an example, the positive performance for seven consecutive weeks shows that the market is more motivated to go long. Of course, in terms of time period factors, the week after New Year's Day market may fall into correctio

Last week, the latest Federal Reserve resolution first talked about the topic of interest rate cuts, which triggered a great change in market expectations, and therefore, large categories of assets appeared in different degrees, among which it was logical for varieties such as gold and US stock indexes to benefit. It seems reasonable that the US dollar has dropped significantly after the news, but a careful scrutiny will still reveal some doubtful point.There is no obvious correlation between the US dollar and US interest rate. Even in the previous round of Fed rate hike, the US dollar even went down all the way. Of course, this can be explained by "good cash, falling prices", but at least it can prove that the beneficiaries of rate hike are US bond yields rather than the US Dollar Index i

At the beginning of last week, Gold jumped high and then fell sharply, and finally closed in the form of the Great negative line, which constituted a one-week reversal. With the approach of the end of the year and the exhaustion of short-term bulls, it is expected that the market will fall into a volatile situation from now until the first quarter of next year. The previous historical high will become the interval suppression point, while the low support has yet to be proved. If the supporting area in 2020-2000 falls, it may trigger a greater level of downward pressure.Previously, we had expected to get ideal buying support by stepping back on the 2080/50 category, but the short-term situation of killing long position makes the situation worse. At the same time, the decline of silver also

The gold’s record high finally arrived on Monday. After the gap up, the gold price is currently at 2152, which is significantly higher than the previous high, which means that a new bull market rising to 2200-2300 has started. For precious metal traders, whether the confirmation of the trend can bring silver to make up for the rise may be a trading opportunity that can be paid attention to in the next stage.After half a year's correction of the previous triple top form of gold futures, the current breakthrough is very ideal in both price and time period, so the probability of effective breakthrough is far greater than false breakthrough.Long ago, according to the long-term graphic structure of gold, we predicted that the ultimate goal of gold price in this big bull market can be seen at le