EURmain (Euro FX - main 2406)
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DB: Why a rapid 100bps Rate Cut by ECB concern's you?

The European economy faces the prospect of a mild recession in 2024, according to $Deutsche Bank AG(DB)$ Chief Economist, Mark Wall. Despite anticipated recovery in the 2nd half of the year, concerns loom over the decline in European corporate competitiveness, inflation rates sliding below expectations, and the need for aggressive monetary policy measures. $Euro FX - main 2403(EURmain)$ $iShares MSCI Germany ETF(EWG)$ Mild Recession Foreseen: a mild recession for the European economy in 2024, citing continued economic impact from monetary policy, unexpectedly weak labor markets, and a slump likely to persist until mid-year.Corporate Competitiveness at Risk: Dec
DB: Why a rapid 100bps Rate Cut by ECB concern's you?

USD is the key to 2024H1

US, Japan, and the European Central Bank meetingsThe US dollar index continued to decline in December 2023, dropping over 2% on top of the nearly 3% fall in November. $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ The unexpected shift in the December Fed meeting was a significant factor in the dollar's weakness. Fed Chair Powell, in the press conference following the meeting, abandoned the previous "higher for longer" rhetoric and hinted that rate cuts could begin before inflation returns to 2%. These changes caused the market to reevaluate the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts. In December, US bond yields further significantly declined, driving up risk assets. The do
USD is the key to 2024H1
avatarTigerClub
2023-08-31

Interview with Dream | Professional Trader's Take on Gold & Index Trend

Hi Tigers,Welcome to our Interview with Dream, a professional trader and content manager with 10 years investing experience. @程俊Dream has held positions as Content Manager at wallstreetcn news. He currently serves as a special guest strategy lecturer for multiple exchanges.Let's dive into his perspective on the gold futures and US stock market trend.1. Could you share your investment journey with us?I entered the financial market in 2007. In 2008, I was fortunate to capitalize on the first round of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US, making a successful trade with the Euro. A more recent satisfying trade was in 2019/2020 when I went long on $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ after it experienced a
Interview with Dream | Professional Trader's Take on Gold & Index Trend

Why Central Banks' Little Pivot Affect The Market So Much?

Central bank's monetary policy can have an impact on the U.S. stock market. By adjusting interest rates and printing money, the central bank can influence the money supply and economic activity, potentially affecting investors' decisions and thus impacting the stock market's performance.We have observed recent actions by the central bank, providing guidance to investors. The Federal ReserveThe July FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve aligned with market expectations, raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25-5.5%. The June dot plot indicated two more rate hikes within the year, one of which was implemented in July. However, even Fed Chairman Powell remained ambiguous about the timing of the final rate hike, stating that it would depend on data and circumstances.We believe that sinc
Why Central Banks' Little Pivot Affect The Market So Much?

All-time highs in Europe

While much of the return this year is being made by U.S. tech companies, several European indices are at or near all-time highs. There are several explanations for this. For one, the banking crisis seems to be primarily an American problem after all (Credit Suisse had major problems even before the banking crisis) and this is then combined with the debt ceiling crisis, another typical American problem. Moreover, European equities are relatively cheap. The euro has also been able to gain some value against the dollar although the scope for a continuation there seems limited. Then, of course, there is a remarkable drop in gas prices, now some 90 percent below their August peak. Last year everyone still assumed that such high energy prices would inevitably push Europe into recession, but th
All-time highs in Europe

Is USD Rebounding or Reversing? Two Main Factors & Opportunities

Thanks to a strong January employment report, the greenback $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ made an impressive comeback from the weakness since Q4 2022. Someone might expect the strength could persist and even test 2022’s high, but I regard this as a rebound and the dollar will likely trade in a range between 100 to 108 (Dollar Index basis) in 1H 2023. EUR vs 2-year yield differential between US and GermanyFirst of all, the strength of greenback last year mainly came from an aggressive rate hike by Federal Reserve that kept the bond yield evaluated and widened the yield differential. As the chart shown, the yield differential of 2-year bond between US and Germany kept widening since 2H 2021 and reached the peak at Q
Is USD Rebounding or Reversing? Two Main Factors & Opportunities

Not backwards, but forwards

Normally, the stock market always looks about six months ahead. Only when uncertainty increases, the investment horizon is shortened to one week. The stock market then reacts mainly to the here and now. That uncertainty is largely caused in the stock market this year by the development of inflation and, as a result, interest rates. Economists still do not have a good model for predicting inflation and this is causing central bankers to misjudge developments. The current policy thus seems mostly a reaction to earlier mistakes. It has also made central banks unwilling to look ahead and base their judgements solely on developments in the recent past. Yet now is precisely the time to look ahead. There are increasing indicators that inflation has peaked for the time being and with it, the peak
Not backwards, but forwards

Your currency, our problem

US percentage M2 growth — dollar liquidity declines The development of the US dollar is highly relevant to the direction of financial markets. Whether the world likes it or not, the world does depend on the US dollar. The only one that can print additional dollars is the US Federal Reserve. This effectively makes the Fed the world’s central bank. Since March 2021, the growth of dollar liquidity has been declining (i.e. the second derivative), as can also be seen from the development of the M2 money supply in the United States. The peak in M2 coincided with the peak in more speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, SPACs, IPOs and shares of companies that do not make profits but were highly valued. Now, money supply growth is at a point where in the past there was usually a significant
Your currency, our problem

How Strong Dollar Changes Company Performance?

Under most circumstances, equity investors are not sensitive to currencies, but since the second half of this year, almost all currencies in the world have depreciated to US dollars, which may "unexpectedly" affect the performance of Q3.Fed's interest rate increase is one reason, major economies except Japan (the Bank of Japan has adopted extensionary monetary policy) are actually following. Why their currencies still clapse?Russia-Ukraine crisis would be another reason, then why commodity currencies like Canadian dollar and Australian dollar can't get rid of the decline neither?Degree of depreciation of major currencies against the US dollar this yearThe pivotal reason&n
How Strong Dollar Changes Company Performance?
avatarTradingLounge
2022-09-27

DAX 40, FTSE 100, EUROSTOXX 50, Dollar, GBPUSD, EURUSD - Elliott Wave Trading Strategies

DAX 40, FTSE 100, EUROSTOXX 50, Dollar, GBPUSD, EURUSD - Elliott Wave Trading Strategies$Euro FX - main 2212(EURmain)$ $British Pound - main 2212(GBPmain)$ $DAX - main 2212(FDAXmain)$ DAX Performance Index ^GDAXI INDEXDB: DAX 40 Chart and Forecasts. FTSE 100 Index, EURO STOXX 50, Forex EURUSD GBPUSD DXY Dollar Index Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisEuropean Stock Market Daily News Headlines:Sterling GBPUSD plunges to all-time low in scathing appraisal of fiscal plan close to parity.Market Indices Overview: The corrective rally competed nicely and Wave (iv) of 3 lower is on track for shor
DAX 40, FTSE 100, EUROSTOXX 50, Dollar, GBPUSD, EURUSD - Elliott Wave Trading Strategies

EURAUD Shows Bearish Sequence Favoring Downside

EURAUD Shows Bearish Sequence Favoring DownsideSeptember 19, 2022ByEWFHendraThe Euro continues to slide against many other major currencies after Russia stopped the gas supplies. The deepening energy crisis causes fear of a recession in the Euro area. Europe has tried to diversify its energy sources and build up reserves, but it’s not possible to totally avert the hit to the economy. In the charts below, we will look at the Elliott Wave chart of the pair.EURAUD Weekly Elliott Wave ChartWeekly Elliott Wave view of EURAUD above suggests that the pair shows a lower low sequence from 3.16.2020 high favoring further downside. While pair stays below wave II/B high at 1.6436, rally should fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside to reach the blue box area of 1.084 – 1.019.EURAUD 4 Hour Elli
EURAUD Shows Bearish Sequence Favoring Downside
avatarTradingLounge
2022-09-12

Uniswap (UNIUSD) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 12 September 2022

Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 12 September 2022, Uniswap (UNIUSD)UNIUSD Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFunction: Follow trendMode: MotiveStructure: ImpulsePosition: Wave ((3))Direction Next higher Degrees:Details: Reverse in structure, wave 2 in motive before rising again in wave 3, all is a sub-waves of wave 3 are one degree larger.Wave Cancel invalid Level: 5.716Uniswap (UNIUSD) Trading Strategy: Bul 's attempt to push prices higher A break through the key resistance level at MA200 line could be an opportunity to open a long position. But wait the price throwback in wave 2 and must not reverse below 5.716Uniswap (UNIUSD) Technical Indicators: MACD Histogram has a Bul ish divergence and MACD has a Hidden Bul ish divergence, the price has an opportunity reversal.TradingL
Uniswap (UNIUSD) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 12 September 2022
avatarTradingLounge
2022-09-09

Polkadot (DOTUSD) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 9 September 2022

Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 9 September 2022, Polkadot (DOTUSD)DOTUSD Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFunction: Counter trendMode: CorrectiveStructure: Double CorrectivePosition: Wave (Y)Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave ((2)) of MotiveDetails: wave ((2)) is usual y .618 or .786 x wave ((1)).Wave Cancel invalid Level: 6.0041Polkadot (DOTUSD) Trading Strategy: Bul 's attempt to push prices higher A break through the key resistance level at 7.74 could be an opportunity to open a long position.But the price must not reverse below 5.99.Polkadot (DOTUSD)Technical Indicators: MACD has a Hidden Bul ish divergence, and price has an opportunity reversal.TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon SomboonsodElliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 9 September 2022,Polkadot (DOTUSD)D
Polkadot (DOTUSD) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 9 September 2022
avatarKon How
2022-09-08

Five Ways That the Super-strong US Dollar Could Hurt the World economy

1. Even more inflation2. Low-income countries under threat3. A bigger US trade deficit4. De-globalisation to get worse5. Eurozone fearsWill the dollar keep rising?• Because the dollar now offers a higher yield when deposited in a US bank, it encourages foreign investors to sell their local currency and buy US dollars.• US dollar is because it is a classic safe haven when the world is worried about a recessionWhen most currencies weaken against the US dollar, meaning countries will have to pay more for the imports that are priced in USD, inflation therefore eats into their economy.Technically, the U.S. should experience tame inflation with a strong dollar, but that is not happening and their inflation hits 40 years high, with CPI staying above 7.91% since February.More video tutorials, foll
Five Ways That the Super-strong US Dollar Could Hurt the World economy