Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: Markets Turn Defensive as Volatility May Persist Through Next Year’s First Quarter  Under the US dollar cycle model, market volatility could continue through the first quarter of next year. Safe haven, arbitrage and options strategies should therefore take priority. If US equities break below key trendlines, investors should focus on risk control. Gold is unlikely to regain bullish momentum before reclaiming its 20 day moving average. A confirmed break below $4,000 could open

Despite greater stability in the bond market last week, key market bellwethers such as Bitcoin and gold showed signs of downside breakdowns. US equities also reversed sharply from their highs on the weekly chart. With oil approaching its previous peak and a critical market window drawing closer, investors should remain alert to the risk of a major correction. Markets also faced pressure two weeks ago, although the weakness was not yet broad based. Conditions have since changed as Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to sustain their rallies, while gold extended its decline and broke below $4,000. Risk assets now face renewed pressure from a potential broad based selloff. $比特币(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ 

Last night, I hosted a livestream on Tiger Futures to discuss shifts in the broader U.S. stock market. I covered the U.S. Dollar Index, including its historical patterns and outlook, and shared trading strategies for currencies, crude oil, and gold. If you missed the session, watch the replay here >> 美股指新一輪的上升浪終於開始了？標普的反彈目標位會達到多少？ Below, I have summarized the key market insights and trading views by topic, so those who missed the session can quickly understand my current outlook. First, a brief introduction: Cheng Jun is a professional trader and guest lecturer at CME Group. He previously served as General Manager of Gold Hea

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Near Term Direction for US Equities Remains Unclear, Pending CPI and TSMC Earnings The baseline scenario for US equities this week remains consolidation near current highs. A downside break is the next most likely outcome, followed by a move to new highs and a higher trading range. All three scenarios remain possible. Easing diplomatic tensions ahead of the election should support market stability and may delay a larger correction, although a modest near term pullback remains a risk. The

The encouraging directional signal from cryptocurrencies during FOMC week did not last long. Although the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high, most risk assets did not confirm the move. Worse still, long-term bond yields also hit new highs, clearly conflicting with the fundamental reasoning behind our earlier expectations. Judging by the credibility of these breakouts, the bond market may prove the more reliable signal if there is no outside intervention. That means we need to be more cautious about the possibility that the turning point could arrive sooner than expected. $CME比特币主连 2610(BTCmain)$ $BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Tr(BIT)$

Introduction 1. Further rate hikes remain firmly in play. CME FedWatch puts the chance of another October hike at 57.6%. The popular “dovish hike” narrative misreads the policy signal. If October payrolls remain strong, three hikes this year become a credible outcome. Volatility would rise accordingly. 2. The dollar may be entering a faster leg higher. September’s rate hike marked a turning point in the dollar cycle. Because rate differentials now drive the trend, commodity longs face a difficult backdrop. 3. US stocks remain strong, but beware the "last hurrah". Avoid excessive bullishness before the midterm elections. The Dow and Russell peaked in August, so October is the next window for a possible top in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Limit exposure to tactical trades

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision came and went last week, with the 25-basis-point move ultimately causing little market disruption. Following the intraday and weekly tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the short-term outlook has become broadly clear: risk assets are likely to maintain their current choppy upward trend over the next one to two months. Whether it is gold, where our order narrowly missed being filled by just a few dollars, or U.S. equity indices, which remain near their highs, pullbacks should continue to offer opportunities to buy in the near term. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$

With the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike now underway, there is no turning back once the arrow has left the bow. The tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the near term; it may not reverse until a major economic event emerges—such as a recession or a substantial equity-market decline. Accordingly, trading during this period should become more cautious. Should the pace of tightening accelerate, market volatility is likely to increase as well. Over the weekend, I held an in-person discussion with Tiger users in Hong Kong. Based on my U.S. dollar cycle model, this round of Fed tightening is a landmark event signaling that the dollar cycle has entered a new phase. Given widening interest-rate differentials, we may subsequently face an environment of accelerated U.S. dollar appreciation.

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be

After holding the positions for more than two months, our long EUR and WTI crude oil trades both generated positive returns last week. With a Federal Reserve rate hike drawing near, new trade setups may emerge at any time. Many investors still have questions about several key issues. This week, we will use the current market backdrop to review the main considerations and provide a practical framework. Managing Futures Contract Rollovers One of the most common questions concerns futures contract rollovers. Because we frequently run swing trades and some positions are held for relatively long periods, changes in the front-month or most-active contract are sometimes unavoidable. Since physical delivery is generally not a practical option, the choices are usually limited to the following: Sett

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

Macro Strategy Weekly China’s Rebounding Energy Demand Is Pushing Global Yields Higher: What Is the Best Options Strategy for Navigating a Range-Bound Market? Weekly Strategy Summary The key focus for markets this week is not to make a directional bet on any single asset. Rather, it is to monitor how the yen, crude oil, global bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities establish new inter-market linkages. The key takeaways from this week’s report are as follows. $Japanese Yen - main 2609(JPYmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2610(QMmain)$