Why will this stock 10x in the next two years
Ok so here we go, my evidence to support why Rklb stock price is going to the moon...
1. The company recently announced the appointment to the board of Lt. general Armagno who retired from the DOD recently and was in charge of space forces. Hmmm I wonder if she knows people who make the big decisions about DOD space contracts going forward? But more on that in a bit.
2. New Zealand has recently been added to US military trade laws. What's that about? well America can buy foreign military technology but it won't share strategicly important information with other countries. Now a lot of the rocket lab development happens in the USA but a lot also occurs in NZ, the American engineers can't share with the kiwi engineers, my understanding is that this US policy change has enabled the sharing of intelligence both ways. Interesting, why would American do this? Is something going on here? my enquiring mind says, hell yes. And this sort of stuff doesn't just happen, some huge strings are being pull me thinks.
3. The DOD has announced it is seeking just over US$130 billion for space related spending in 2025, broken down in the third pic I shared in this post. Hmmm rocket lab has a backlog of just over $1 billion atm, I could see that easily 10x next year, even 100x next year. Something is up. Obviously I can only share 3 pics here, the three I shared are all reputable sources but I have a lot more. Like that famous carpenters song "I've only just begun"
4. Other information sources lead me to conclude that the US military really needs to remain at the cutting edge especially in comms and earth observation. They need satellite constellations that can do this reliably. And people who can keep their mouths zipped. So far rocket lab has said virtually Nothing. Well Adam spice the CFO did hint at the idea of satellite constellations in his latest interview, but very very easy to miss.
There are only two American space companies that have a proven record of launching in recent times, space X (ceo that continues to talk too much) and Rklb with 48 launches and only four that failed, first 3, well that's better than others, and one crazy anomaly last year.
Anyway, my point, if the US government was to fund Rklbs development of one, two even three satellite constellations, its a game changer. We go from $100 million a quarter to a billion a quarter. And the CEO and CFO keep reiterating that scaling production is way more important than producing a one off.
I believe that's why their neutron rocket launch has been pushed out to mid 2025, they don't need one rocket, they need ten.
Is it all an easy ride to 10x? No it's rocket science. One loose bolt and kaboom. But I see some very serious signs that Rklb is backed by the people that decide. I'd appreciate your thoughts, please comment tigers[Grin] @TigerPicks @Tiger_chat @TigerClub @TigerPM @SPACE ROCKET @Barcode
Comments
Just one point though, i realise the DOD contract could be conceived as highly contested, but i don’t see that so myuch because rklb and space X are the only two companies that are successful. All the others have existing contracts that they have yet to deliver on. As a person who issues contracts to contractors, no way im giving more contracts to people thathave not delivered on the ones i have already issued.
As always though, appreciate that you did base your insights on a basis of carefully considered ideas, supported by solid evidence, rather refreshing.
Remember though im posting with an emotional lense, so im looking at, things not said, power plays, relationships, body language
嘿，艾@Emotional Investor，谢谢你帖子上的。以下是我的看法：
1.Armagno中将董事会任命：
真的，尼娜·阿马尼奥中将加入火箭实验室董事会是一件大事[oai_citation：1,火箭实验室欢迎尼娜·阿马尼奥中将加入火箭实验室董事会](https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-welcomes-lt-gen-nina-armagno-to-board-of-directors/)[oai_citation：2,退役太空部队中将阿马尼奥加入火箭实验室董事会](https://www.federaltimes.com/management/leadership/2023/11/02/retired-space-force-lt-gen-armagno-joins-rocketlab-board/)[oai_citation：3,退役太空部队中将加入火箭实验室董事会](https://www.federaltimes.com/2023/11/02/retired-space-force-lt-gen-armagno-joins-rocketlab-board-spacenews](https://spacenews.com/retired她在美国太空军的经历令人印象深刻，但假设这直接转化为国防部的大规模合同，就像期望在每条彩虹的尽头找到金子一样。关系有帮助，但它们不是合同的魔杖。
2.新方在美国军贸中的作用：
你关于新西兰突然成为美国军事贸易主要参与者的故事听起来令人兴奋，但这与其说是事实，不如说是虚构。没有实质性的政策变化能够与新西兰工程师广泛分享新的情报。我们不要在投资策略中编织太多幻想；火箭实验室真正的创新发生在现有框架内。
3.国防部1300亿美元的太空支出：
当然，国防部正在向太空技术投入大量资金[oai_citation：5，退役太空部队中将Armagno加入火箭实验室董事会-SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/retired-space-force-lt-gen-armagno-joins-rocket-labs-board-of-directors/)，但暗示火箭实验室将垄断足够多的市场，使其积压订单增加10倍或100倍有点牵强。这些基金的竞争非常激烈，许多公司都在争夺分一杯羹。这是一场拥挤的比赛，而不是独自登上月球的sprint。
四、卫星星座和安静的CFO：
首席财务官亚当·斯皮斯(Adam Spice)关于卫星星座的暗示很有趣，但仅靠窃窃私语并不能让我们进入金融平流层。航天部门的繁荣依赖于具体的计划和明确的合同，而不仅仅是安静的暗示和希望。沉默可能是金，但当涉及到投资者的信心时，清晰是无价的。
5.中子火箭延迟：
将中子火箭发射推迟到2025年中期并不完全是大规模增长的绿灯；这是对制造火箭艰难的承认。他们需要的不仅仅是雄心；他们需要精确度和可靠性。去年的异常现象提醒我们，一个松动的螺栓可能会破坏精心制定的计划[oai_citation：6，火箭实验室任命阿马尼奥中将为董事会成员]（https://spacewatch.global/2023/11/rocket-lab-appoints-lt-gen-armagno-as-board-member/）。
因此，尽管火箭实验室有潜力，但指望未来两年获得10倍的回报与其说是合理的战略，不如说是一厢情愿。让我们脚踏实地，现实投资。毕竟，即使在太空中，重力仍然适用！
为明智的投资和确凿的事实干杯！
@SPACE ROCKET@Daily_Discussion@Tiger_Earnings@TigerPM@TigerObserver@MillionaireTiger@Tiger_comments@Rocketgirl@Long Rocket@rockets@MrRocket@Rocket Chief@CaptCrash
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Hope you understand.
@TigerWire @SPACE ROCKET