Macro Analysis for Gold!

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some macro analysis with you!

1.

$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $Gold - main 2408(GCmain)$ US PMI shows economic slowdown, gold price gets a temporary respite, pay attention to the rebound strength!

Last trading day Monday (June 3): International gold/London gold bottomed out and rebounded strongly, and rebounded near the 60-day moving average support as expected, making the short-term trend mainly rebound and strengthen. However, whether a continuous rebound can be generated depends on whether the resistance of the middle track can be broken and stabilized, and it will return to above $2,400, otherwise there will still be a risk of falling again. In terms of specific trends, the price of gold opened at $2328.37 per ounce in the Asian session. After a brief strengthening and encountering resistance near $2331 as expected, it continued to fall and recorded a daily low of $2314.64 at the end of the Asian session.

The short position was taken profit, and a bullish entry was also made. After that, the trend bottomed out and rebounded. The European session maintained the momentum of recovery. After the opening of the U.S. session, it continued to strengthen and recorded a daily high of $2354.45 at 1 a.m. the next day. Finally, it encountered resistance and retreated about $10, but the strength was limited. It finally rebounded again and closed at $2350.46, with a daily amplitude of $39.81, closing up $22.09, or 0.95%. In terms of influence, the gold price recorded an intraday low under pressure from technical pressure and the advance strength of the US dollar index. However, as the US Treasury yields continued to fall on Friday, they limited the decline in gold prices.

After that, the US Treasury yields increased their decline and the US dollar index began to fall in the second half of the European session and continued to fall, boosting gold prices to bottom out and maintain strength. In the US trading session, the negative impact of the final value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in May did not cause obvious pressure on gold prices. After the shock, it turned strong again due to the positive news that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI in May fell for the second consecutive month, and the Atlanta Fed lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in the second quarter, supporting gold prices to continue to strengthen, record an intraday high, and finally hold steady and close positively.

2.

Looking forward to today, Tuesday (June 4): Gold opened in a narrow range, and the rebound momentum slowed down. However, after the US dollar index fell yesterday, the short-selling force increased. The daily chart continued to encounter resistance from the middle track and short-term moving average.

The Bollinger Bands tended to spread downward. The weekly chart has fallen below the middle track support. The attached chart indicator maintains a short signal, and is expected to fall further, breaking the support of the rebound trend, and continuously boosting the gold price. Therefore, in the short term, the gold price is still biased towards rebounding. In addition, in terms of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, the daily chart also fell below the middle track and short-term moving average, and the short-selling force increased. The attached chart indicator also turned to bearish development.

The weekly chart once again focused on the middle track support. If it fell below, the decline would increase, and boost the bullish force of the gold price. Moreover, the pressure expectation of the Dow Jones Index maintaining a high consolidation will also provide certain support to the gold price. Therefore, at present, the gold price will still have the momentum and space for continuous recovery. The focus of the day will be on data such as the number of JOLTs vacancies in the United States in April (10,000 people) and the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in April. The market expectations are mixed, but according to yesterday's data, the probability of being favorable to gold prices is still very high. Therefore, there is still a need for gold prices to rebound today.

Gold technical analysis: After gold rebounded at the opening of Monday and was under pressure above $2,330, it went down and fell to $2,315, and then stabilized and counterattacked. After the European session continued to rise, the US session further pulled up, rising by more than $23, reaching a high of $2,354.72, and once rose by more than 1% during the day, and finally closed up 1%! From the daily line of gold, it fell sharply by 40 US dollars after hitting the 2360 mark last Friday. It fell slightly to around 2315 US dollars on Monday and then rebounded strongly to above 2350, rebounding nearly 40 US dollars from the intraday low, and finally closed at the 2350 mark. The daily line basically recovered the decline of last Friday.

Overall, Monday did not continue the decline of last Friday, but rebounded strongly to above 2350. Such a trend is not conducive to the bears, so it is not ruled out that gold will continue to test the resistance of the 2360 mark. H4 trend, gold fell to around 2315 US dollars yesterday and continued to rebound to stand above the 2350 mark.

At present, the gold price is running near the upper track of the Bollinger band. KDJ diverges upward after the golden cross, and MACD diverges upward after the golden cross. The energy column turns from green to red, and the short-term trend is strong. This week's super data week is coming, and the market before the data is likely to fluctuate. Gold still needs to wait for big data before it can go out of the unilateral, and the current fluctuation is to prepare for the big market. Gold continued to collect in one hour, but it is still volatile.

The second half of this week is all big data. It is expected that it will be difficult to go directly to a large unilateral market before the data. Let's look at the volatility today. Gold continues to pay attention to the resistance near the last high of 2360 on the top, and pay attention to the support near 2330 on the bottom. The volatility before the gold data is in the 2330-2360 range of high selling and low buying.

This week's super data week is coming, and the big market is about to start. It is expected to go out of a new round of large unilateral market. Gold broke a new low during the day but did not form a unilateral decline, and it still returned to the oscillation range.

The market trend is circuitous and oscillating, and profits can be obtained from high-altitude and low-long operations.

On the whole, the short-term focus on the upper side is 2360-2366 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2320-2315 support!

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