Semiconductor sales declined by 8.2% in 2023, confirming projections that the industry would experience negative growth. Despite the decrease in annual revenue, the second half of the year saw consistent month-over-month sales growth, signaling the beginning of the new semiconductor business cycle. In addition, the increase in the latter half of the year was driven by sales in end-markets such as AI, automotive, and industrial that are expected to propel the industry to USD 1 trillion by 2030.
NVIDIA
NVIDIA shares entered correction territory last week, as an ongoing sell-off erased a historic amount of value for the artificial intelligence focused chipmaker. The drop put Nvidia's valuation back below the USD 3 trillion threshold and under both Microsoft and Apple in size. Even with the slump, Nvidia remains up nearly 140 per cent this year, making it among the best performers among S&P 500 Index components.
Nvidia daily chart
As shown in the chart above, NVIDIA share price pulled back to EMA25 after a bearish engulfing candle appeared last week. This week, NVIDIA share price seems to find its short term bottom and consolidate over the week. The strong uptrend is still valid now and I think soon NVIDIA $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
AMD
AMD unveiled four new Zen 5 CPUs for the desktop at Computex this year, and they're due to launch "in July." One of the biggest changes to the lineup compared with the previous Zen 4 chips was the all-new Ryzen 9700X. This particular CPU now has a power-sipping TDP of just 65 watts compared with 105W on the existing Ryzen 7 7700X.
AMD daily chart
For AMD, its share price is much weaker as compared to NVIDIA. The stock consolidated since May until now. Aligned with my previous prediction, AMD pullbacked towards EMA 200 trendline support at around 130 USD and began to rebound. The rebound strength was not strong yet, but this might be a beginning for AMD uptrend movement. 174.59 USD will be the first resistance to break, then it will be definitely worth to revisit and reinvest AMD $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
Intel
Leaked benchmarks for Intel's forthcoming Core Ultra 200V laptop CPUs have surfaced, indicating that Chipzilla might be able to mount a formidable challenge against its rivals AMD and Qualcomm its new CPUs later this year.
Intel daily chart
As a dead cross occured between EMA50 and EMA200, a mid to long term bearish movement for Intel is unavoidable. However, if you look at the short term, there might be some rebound chance for Intel. The share price seems to form a short term bottom at around 29.80 USD and is able to hold well at this position. I believe the worst is over for Intel and at such price, the risk of having long is much lower than shorting the company. For such, even though the technical chart is not very favourable for Intel, I vote bullish for Intel $Intel(INTC)$
TSM
TSM obtained the government's approval to inject an additional USD 10.26 billion to finance the construction of its second fab in Kumamoto, Japan, and a second fab in Arizona, using advanced process technologies. The Department of Investment Review approved TSMC's investment applications on the basis that Taiwan remains a major technology and manufacturing hub for the chipmaker, which makes its most advanced chips at home, the company operates its research-and-development center here and the majority of its capacity remains in Taiwan.
TSM daily chart
Quite a healthy chart for TSM, comparable to the one of Nvidia, nothing much to monitor and comment other than a clear obvious uptrend. Supported by the strong market demand for its manufacturing capabilities, there's no reason that TSM share price will stop here right? Higher will only go higher, bullish for TSM! Correction towards EMA25 is pretty common and healthy after a massive rally. After this, TSM $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
SOXL
SOXL is an ETF that offers 3x daily long leverage to the PHLX Semiconductor Index, making it a powerful tool for investors with a bullish short-term outlook for semiconductor equities. Investors should note that SOXL's leverage resets on a daily basis, which results in compounding of returns when held for multiple periods. SOXL can be a powerful tool for sophisticated investors, but should be avoided by those with a low risk tolerance or a buy-and-hold strategy.
SOXL daily chart
Following the crazy rally in semiconductor stocks mainly by Apple, NVIDIA, Broadcom for example, SOXL broke new high towards mid of last week. However, it began to retrace last week. The good news is this week, SOXL manages to locate its near term support at EMA25 and immediately rebounds after touching this trendline support. The retracement might end soon and SOXL $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$
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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) Analysis:
Business and Industry Overview:NVIDIA is a leading technology company that designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs) and system-on-a-chip units (SoCs) for gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive markets. The semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth in the coming years, driven by increasing demand for AI, automotive, and industrial applications. NVIDIA is well-positioned to benefit from these trends, as it has a strong presence in these markets.
Earnings Analysis:
NVIDIA's latest earnings report for Q1 2025 showed an EPS of $0.60, with a gross profit margin of 78.35% and a net profit margin of 57.14%.
The company's earnings forecast for FY 2025 projects an EPS of $2.71, gross income of $120.54 billion, and EBIT of $79.28 billion.
Analysts forecast that NVIDIA's EPS will reach $4.23 in FY 2027, with gross income of $190.09 billion and EBIT of $122.45 billion.
Trend Analysis:
The current stock price of NVIDIA is $123.54 (as of 2024-06-29), which is above the support price of $84.01 and below the resistance price of $124.31.
The average cost of NVIDIA stock is $98.61.
In terms of capital flow, there has been a mixed trend in the past five days, with both inflows and outflows observed.
Analyst Viewpoints:
Analysts have provided a target price range for NVIDIA, with a mean estimate of $128.55, a low estimate of $50.30, and a high estimate of $200.00.
The analyst recommendation for NVIDIA is 19 recommend, 34 buy, and 5 hold.
Recent News:
NVIDIA shares recently entered correction territory due to a sell-off, but the stock remains up nearly 140% this year.
The decline in semiconductor sales in 2023 was followed by consistent month-over-month sales growth in the second half of the year, indicating the beginning of a new semiconductor business cycle.
Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares (SOXL) Analysis:
Business and Industry Overview:SOXL is an ETF that offers 3x daily long leverage to the PHLX Semiconductor Index. It is designed for investors with a bullish short-term outlook on semiconductor equities. The semiconductor industry is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by various end-markets such as AI, automotive, and industrial applications.
Trend Analysis:
The current stock price of SOXL is $55.36 (as of 2024-06-29), which is above the support price of $36.70 and below the resistance price of $59.00.
The average cost of SOXL stock is $44.01.
In terms of capital flow, there has been a mixed trend in the past five days, with both inflows and outflows observed.
Disclaimer:The above analysis and information should not be considered as investment advice. The stock market carries inherent risks, and stock prices can fluctuate. It is important for investors to conduct their own research and analysis before making investment decisions.