Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!
1.
Friday (July 5), the U.S. non-farm payrolls became the detonation of gold and silver and other non-U.S. assets fuse, gold in the non-farm payrolls after the violent shock of more than 40 U.S. dollars, from 2368 to 2350 near, and then soared to 2380 near. Why non-farm payrolls triggered such a big market? The study of non-farm payrolls "breakdowns" look over, a chart detailing non-farm payrolls and the breakdown of each industry.The June employment data clearly sent some mixed signals, but in general, they are leaning towards a slowdown in the economy. This will spark a debate about how strong (or weak) the labour market really is. Either way, the debate about the Fed will heat up in the coming weeks.
Although trading was light this week because of the holiday, the market is still reacting. U.S. Treasury yields fell and stock futures rose after the data was released. the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.31%. This shows that traders are not waiting for any analysis, they have decided that this means the Fed will have to cut rates. We are seeing the labour market still creating jobs, but unemployment is rising, which could be seen as a negative, possibly due to weakness in the private sector. The key is that wages are falling, which is a respectable report for the market. As far as the Fed is concerned, we heard a series of not-so-good macro news last week that suggests the economy is moving downward a bit faster than previously anticipated. So this report puts the Fed in a comfortable position, I mean, if this continues next month and hourly wages don't increase, then I think we're going to see a rate cut in September and again in December.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $Gold - main 2408(GCmain)$
2.
What should gold do next week? It may face a swing opportunity next week!
Technical: the direction of gold for the time being is certainly bullish, this point of view vowed, although it has reached 2365 weekly prediction point, but the trend is unchanged, so the highs are not guessed, it is possible that with the impact of this non-farm payrolls data, breaking the daily Bollinger upper rail suppression, rushing to the high of 2400 and continue to create new highs, so the technical side is bullish. Operation, and on the short-term words, gold above the trend line resistance have also been broken, rising has no obvious pressure, you can first look at the former high falling position 2368!
W1 chart: resistance 2417-2430 or even near the former high! Meanwhile 2388 is the position of this wave back down 618! Comprehensive view: next Monday's opening focus on 2388 and 2284 support! Trade buy orders mainly, XAUUSD will make new highs!
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