We haven't talked about the trend of crude oil and other commodities for a long time. The main reason is that the large-range + mid-rail model we previously determined has not changed at present, and the main tone of selling high and buying low can still be adopted. In view of the market change risks or trend changes that the current market is concerned about, in fact, we can also get a glimpse of the leopard from the commodity prices.
There are many possibilities for a pattern to change, but the most direct and obvious one is naturally the substitution of "trader". In the past two years, the crude oil and copper price strategies formulated by the Biden administration have been wide fluctuations. Among them, the crude oil we have been mentioning is more prominent. The U.S. government has made it clear that it will sell its crude oil reserves above $100, while it will buy back reserves below $70. Under the limitation of this range, the market capacity becomes very limited, and the central axis level of 84/85 can only be barely divided.
The situation of copper prices is slightly different. In the first half of this year, there was a new high trend, but then it fell sharply. This seems to be a reluctant short squeeze attempt by market participants in an environment that seems to be relatively weak. If this "burr" trend is excluded, copper prices have actually experienced a big shock in the same period of time.
Why can't traditional commodities get out of the trend market in this round of obvious monetary policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve? The main reason is that funds cannot estimate all assets, and the main direction of the Democratic Party (Biden) is U.S. stocks, gold and Bitcoin. As old money, the market participation and depth of commodities make it relatively difficult to control the market highly. Once the market is pulled or smashed, it will face the risk of being picked.
After understanding this background, we can go in the opposite direction, so as to judge the potential change of U.S. stocks or gold. In other words, the change of trading mode will mean the emergence of new gameplay. For example, in the second half of the year, the oil price finally effectively fell below the 70/63 support driven by some news or fundamentals, or unexpectedly broke the 100 mark, which implies that the oil price will go out of a new trend. It should be noted that although other varieties can also be compared with this idea, as the king of commodities, the reference value of crude oil will definitely be greater.
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