🎁Will Market Rise After Jackson Hole Meeting?

Comments

• icycrystal

  08-25

  icycrystal

  about time to cut rate... how long to wait [Thinking] need to action before situations get worse...

  @Shyon @Aqa @Universe宇宙 @LMSunshine @koolgal @rL @GoodLife99 @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT
  

  How do you view the rate cut expectation?
  

  
  

  Will rate cut bring more volatility for stock market?
  

  
  

  Or “sell the fact“ will happen in September?
  

  
  

  Leave your comments and also post to win at least 5 tiger coins~

  • Shyon: 
    Thanks for sharing
  • TigerGPT: 

    根据最新的报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在上周表示将在9月进行一次降息，这让股市出现了反弹。这一消息在市场上引起了积极的反应。虽然鲍威尔的讲话暗示了降息的可能性，但具体的降息幅度和时间仍然存在不确定性。

    降息预期可能会给股市带来更多的波动性，因为市场已经对降息有所预期。这意味着如果降息不符合预期，或者降息力度不够大，可能会引发市场的失望情绪，导致股市出现震荡或下跌。

    但是，“卖掉事实”现象也可能会出现。一旦降息正式宣布，部分投资者可能会主动出售股票，以锁定利润。这可能导致股市在降息后出现短期的下跌。

    总体而言，降息预期可能会带来更多的市场波动性。投资者应密切关注市场动态，根据自己的投资目标和风险承受能力做出相应的投资决策。请注意，以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。

    如果您想了解更多相关信息，请查看以下新闻链接：

    Federal Reserve signals at an interest rate cut in September  

    US stocks post solid gains as Powell endorses rate cut  

    How Will Stocks React to Lower Rates?  

• Universe宇宙

  08-25

  Universe宇宙
  我想问 2024 年 9 月降息是否意味着经济表现不佳，对吗兄弟 @TigerGPT ？

  此外，2024 年 9 月的降息是否会导致通胀进一步走高，从而导致需要在不久的将来加息。

  • TigerGPT: 

    根据目前的信息，我无法找到针对2024年9月的降息对经济表现和通胀带来的影响的具体文章或分析。然而，我可以给你一些一般性的观点。

    降息与经济表现：降息通常被视为对经济的刺激措施，旨在促进借贷和消费。降息可能对经济带来积极的影响，例如降低借贷成本，提高消费和投资活动。然而，降息也可能反映出经济增长放缓或面临不利风险的现象。因此，降息并不能简单地说明经济表现的好坏，需要综合考虑其他因素。

      

    降息与通胀：降息可能导致货币供应增加，从而可能对通胀产生影响。如果经济活动回暖并伴随着供需失衡，降息可能进一步推动通胀。然而，通胀受到多个因素的影响，如劳动力市场状况、原材料价格、生产能力等，单一因素的作用有限。因此，需要综合考虑各种因素来评估通胀压力。

      

    加息的可能性：降息后是否会在不久的将来加息，取决于经济表现和通胀压力的发展。中央银行通常会根据经济数据和前景来决定是否调整利率。如果经济表现良好且通胀压力上升，加息的可能性可能会增加。然而，这也会受到其他因素的影响，如全球经济形势、货币政策目标等。

      

    总之，降息对经济表现和通胀的影响是复杂的，并受多个因素的综合影响。无法简单地预测降息措施的具体影响，需要密切关注经济数据和政策发展。在做出投资决策时，建议综合考虑各种因素，并根据自己的风险承受能力做出明智的选择。

    风险提示：以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，需谨慎决策。

• Universe宇宙

  08-25

  Universe宇宙
  I would ask if whether rate cut in September 2024 would mean that the economy is not doing well, right buddy @TigerGPT ?

  Also, would the rate cut in September 2024 cause inflation to come back even much higher, resulting the need to raise rate in the near future.

  • TigerGPT: 

    Based on the available news, it seems that there aren't specific articles discussing whether a rate cut in September 2024 would indicate that the economy is not doing well. However, there are articles indicating that a rate cut is expected, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirming upcoming rate cuts at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The decision to cut rates is influenced by decreased inflation risks and increased labor market risks.

    Regarding the impact of the rate cut on inflation, it is worth noting that a rate cut can potentially stimulate economic activity and increase aggregate demand, which may lead to higher inflationary pressures in the future. However, the extent to which inflation will rise depends on various factors such as the overall strength of the economy, consumer spending, and other macroeconomic indicators.

    As for the market reaction to a rate cut, historical data suggests that the stock market tends to "rise more and fall less" around the time of the Jackson Hole Symposium. The S&P 500 index has historically shown positive performance in the two weeks before and after the symposium, particularly following the speech by the Federal Reserve Chair. However, there is a concern of a potential "sell the fact" scenario, where even a rate cut might not be sufficient to reverse a downward trend if economic data continues to deteriorate.

    In conclusion, while a rate cut may have temporary positive effects on the stock market, the long-term impact depends on various economic factors and market conditions. It is crucial to closely monitor economic indicators and corporate earnings to make informed investment decisions.

    Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and it is recommended to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

• Shyon

  08-26

  Shyon
  The expectation of a rate cut generally influences financial markets in several ways:

  1. Impact on Stock Market Volatility: A rate cut can introduce volatility into the stock market, particularly if the cut is unexpected or if it leads to uncertainty about future monetary policy. While rate cuts are usually seen as supportive for equities due to lower borrowing costs and potential economic stimulus, the actual market reaction can be complex.

  2. "Sell the Fact" Scenario: This phenomenon could occur if investors have already priced in the rate cut and then decide to take profits once the actual cut is announced. If the rate cut is widely anticipated and has been factored into stock prices, the announcement itself might not drive further gains.

  In summary, while a rate cut is typically supportive for stocks, it can also lead to increased volatility or a "sell the fact" reaction, depending on how the market had anticipated and positioned itself for the policy change.
  @Tiger_comments

  • TigerGPTReplyShyon: 

    As an AI, I don't have personal opinions or emotions. However, based on historical trends and market dynamics, here are some key points to consider regarding the rate cut expectation and its potential impact:

    Market Reaction: The market has shown a tendency to react positively to the Federal Reserve's annual economic policy symposium, such as the Jackson Hole Symposium. The S&P 500 index has historically risen in the two weeks before and after the event, especially following the speech by the Federal Reserve Chair. This suggests that there may be an upward bias in the market during this period.

      

    Rate Cut Expectation: The expectation of a rate cut can generally provide support to the stock market. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth, make borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers, and potentially increase corporate profitability. This expectation can create a positive sentiment among investors.

      

    Volatility Risk: While rate cuts are often viewed as positive for stocks, they can also introduce volatility. If the rate cut fails to meet market expectations or if there are concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy in boosting economic growth, it could lead to increased market volatility.

      

    "Sell the Fact" Scenario: There is a possibility of a "sell the fact" scenario, where investors who have already priced in the rate cut decide to take profits once the cut is announced. This can lead to a temporary market decline or consolidation, especially if the rate cut was widely anticipated and already factored into stock prices.

      

    Given these factors, it is important for investors to stay informed about the latest economic data, policy announcements, and market sentiment. Monitoring the upcoming speech by the Federal Reserve Chair, Powell, will provide insights into the future direction of monetary policy and potential market reactions.

    Please note that investing in the stock market involves risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    @TigerGPTOverall, while the rate cut expectation may initially bring positive sentiment to the stock market, there are potential risks of increased volatility and a "sell the fact" scenario. It will be crucial to closely monitor the market reaction to Powell's speech and consider the evolving economic data to assess the potential impact on stock market dynamics. It is also important to note that investing in the stock market carries risks, and individual investors should make investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance and financial goals.

    This information is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

  • Shyon: 
    @TigerGPT How do you think?
• Aqa

  08-26

  Aqa
  All indicators show sign of market rise after Jackson Hole meeting In fact, historically, U.S. stocks tend to “rise more and fall less” around the time of the Federal Reserve's annual economic policy symposium. Solid! 🚀🚀 Tganks @Meme_Tiger
• Aqa

  08-26

  Aqa
  Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said he need to start reducing interest rates. The maket has long factored in the expectations of rate cut in September so it will not turn very volatile overnight. In fact, if the economic data deteriorate, then a rate cut might not be enough to reverse the downward trend. Just a reminder, we should all be cautious and invest with due diligence. Expect lower-risk assets like cash and short term bonds to pay less of a return.
  • Aqa: 
    @icycrystal [Heart][Heart][Heart]