CPI, Bank Earnings, Rate Cut: Will Market Collapse Like 2008 or Push Higher?

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10-10
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As the stock market $DJIA(.DJI)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hits record highs more than 40 times this year, there are concerns that history might repeat itself and another financial crisis could occur.

Will the market repeat things in 2007?

On September 18, 2024, the Fed made a 50bps rate cut, exceeding expectations despite solid economic data. This mirrors the 2007 rate cut, after which markets rallied for three weeks, reaching an all-time high on October 9, 2007.

Similarly, after the 2024 cut, markets rallied for three weeks, and the S&P closed at an all-time high on October 9, 2024.

US election brings both uncertainty and potential opportunities.

However, some investors believe that because of the U.S. elections in November, the market won’t crash this year and could even see a significant rally in November and December.

Goldman Sachs released a report, raising the 12-month target for the S&P 500 from 6,000 to 6,300 points, and the year-end target from 5,600 to 6,000 points.

Will the latest CPI data shift market expectations regarding further rate cuts?

The September CPI will be released tonight at 8:30 PM.

Yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes showed a hawkish tone, suggesting that large rate cuts may not become the norm.

Some participants preferred a 25bps rate cut, which could indicate internal division. The Fed stressed that the 50bps cut does not signal a promise for future reductions.

Bank earnings reports on Friday will provide new guidance for the broader market.

The Financials sector will be in focus, with nearly 50% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies from this sector set to report Q3 earnings, including major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo.

The sector is expected to see a slight year-over-year earnings decline of -0.4%, driven mainly by the Banks industry, which is forecasted to report a -12% earnings drop. Excluding Banks, the sector would show a 6.9% earnings growth.

With so many things coming up, will you take profit or stay firm with your holdings?

Bulls or bears: what’s your stance?

Will S&P hit 6000 by the year end?

Can you find similarities between 2024 and 2007?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins!

Take Profit as S&P Hits 5800 or Hold Till 6000?
As the stock market hits record highs more than 40 times this year, there are concerns that history might repeat itself and another financial crisis could occur. ---------------- Will S&P 500 hit 6000 by year-end as institutions predict? Would you take profit and stay cautious ahead or hold till the year-end?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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  • Universe宇宙
    10-10
    Universe宇宙
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    @TigerGPT do you think it is better to stay out of the stock market due to too much events occuring now?
    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the news articles and viewpoints regarding the current state of the stock market and upcoming events such as the CPI data, bank earnings, and rate cuts, here are some key takeaways:

      The stock market has been hitting record highs multiple times this year, causing concerns about a potential financial crisis. However, there are divergent opinions on whether the market will repeat the events of 2007.  

      The recent rate cut by the Fed exceeded expectations, similar to the rate cut in 2007. After the cut, the market rallied for three weeks and reached an all-time high. This has led some investors to believe that the market won't crash this year and may even experience a significant rally in November and December.  

      The release of the September CPI data may impact market expectations regarding further rate cuts. The FOMC minutes showed a hawkish tone, suggesting that large rate cuts may not become the norm. Internal division among participants regarding the rate cut was also noted.  

      The upcoming bank earnings reports, especially from major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo, will provide new guidance for the broader market. The Financials sector is expected to see a slight decline in earnings, primarily driven by the Banks industry.  

      Goldman Sachs has raised its target for the S&P 500 from 6,000 to 6,300 points, indicating a bullish outlook for the market.  

      Overall, there is a mixed sentiment in the market, with varying opinions on whether to take profits or hold onto holdings. The final outcome will depend on the interplay of events and market dynamics.  

      Considering the complexity and unpredictability of the stock market, it is important to approach investment decisions with caution and conduct thorough research. Diversification and a long-term perspective are key strategies for managing risk. It may be beneficial to consult with a financial advisor or conduct further analysis based on individual investment goals and risk tolerance.

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and individuals should make investment decisions based on their own judgment and risk tolerance.

      Here are some news articles related to the topic for your reference:

      Stocks Up, Yields Up, Dollar Up, China Down As Hawkish Minutes Hit Ahead Of CPI  

      Wall Street Set for Lower Open as Investors Assess Rate Path, Geopolitical Risks  

      US Market Insights (7-11 Oct): CPI Set to Test the Market  

      Smart Look At The Week Ahead: US Bank Earnings, Uniqlo And B&O  

      EMEA Morning Briefing: Investors Buckle Up for Imminent Fed Rate Cut  

      Please note that the links provided are external sources, and I recommend reviewing them for more detailed information on the topic.

  • icycrystal
    10-10
    icycrystal
    Win 15 Tiger-coins
    will history repeat [Thinking] [Helpless]

    Similarly, after the 2024 cut, markets rallied for three weeks, and the S&P closed at an all-time high on October 9, 2024.

    some investors believe that because of the U.S. elections in November, the market won’t crash this year and could even see a significant rally in November and December.

    @Universe宇宙 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @rL @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @GoodLife99

    With so many things coming up, will you take profit or stay firm with your holdings?

    Bulls or bears: what’s your stance?

    Will S&P hit 6000 by the year end?

    Can you find similarities between 2024 and 2007?

    Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins!

    • TigerGPT: 

      After analyzing the available information, I found some relevant news and viewpoints regarding the S&P 500 in 2007 and 2024:

      In 2007, the S&P 500 closed up 3.53% for the year, with some stocks performing better than others. However, I couldn't find more specific details about the similarities between 2007 and 2024.

        

      In 2024, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high on October 9th, following a three-week rally after the cut. Some investors believe that the upcoming U.S. elections in November may prevent a market crash and could even lead to significant growth.

        

      Based on the information available, it is important to note that historical patterns may not directly indicate the future performance of the S&P 500 or any other investment. It is recommended to conduct thorough research, consider various factors, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

      As an AI financial analyst, I do not provide personalized investment advice or recommendations. It is essential for you to carefully evaluate your investment goals, risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Remember to diversify your portfolio and consider the long-term prospects of your holdings.

      Risk Disclaimer: The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, including potential loss of principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

  • MilkTeaBro
    10-10
    MilkTeaBro
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    Buffet sold $Bank of America(BAC)$ , he holds cash at historical high, he believes the market is overrated.
  • Universe宇宙
    10-10
    Universe宇宙
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    @TigerGPT Compare 2024 stock market with the 2008 stock market and the 2000 stock market using 12 paragraphs and grab information from the Internet if needed.
    • TigerGPT: 

      Below are some articles that provide insights into the comparison between the 2024 stock market, the 2008 stock market, and the 2000 stock market:

      CPI, Bank Earnings, Rate Cut: Will Market Collapse Like 2008 or Push Higher?: This article discusses concerns about a potential financial crisis and compares the current market situation with the events leading up to the 2008 market collapse. It also mentions the impact of rate cuts and the upcoming CPI data release.

        

      Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes - Investopedia: This article provides a timeline of major stock market crashes in U.S. history, including the crashes in 2008 and 2000. It offers historical context for understanding market movements.

        

      2024 Outlook for the Stock Market and Economy - Morningstar: Morningstar provides an outlook on the stock market and the economy for 2024. This analysis includes discussions on stock market valuations, interest rate forecasts, and GDP expectations.

        

      Stock Market Outlook: Stocks Look Like They Did ... - Markets Insider: This article highlights economist David Rosenberg's opinion that the stock market is showing similar warning signs of a "speculative mania" as seen before the crashes of 2008 and 2000.

        

      Please note that the provided articles are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. It is essential to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

      Remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and market conditions can change rapidly. If you require more specific information or analysis, please let me know.

  • Cadi Poon
    10-10
    Cadi Poon
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    2024年9月18日，美聯儲降息50bps，儘管經濟數據穩健，但仍超出預期。這反映了2007年的降息，之後市場上漲了三週，並於2007年10月9日達到歷史新高。

    同樣，在2024年降息後，市場連續三週上漲，標準普爾指數P於2024年10月9日收於歷史新高。

  • TimothyX
    10-10
    TimothyX
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    金融業將成爲焦點，近50%的$S&P 500(.SPX)$該行業的公司將公佈第三季度收益，包括摩根大通、高盛和富國銀行等主要銀行。

    該行業的盈利預計將同比小幅下降-0.4%，這主要是由銀行業推動的，預計銀行業的盈利將下降-12%。不包括銀行，該行業的盈利將增長6.9%。

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