I believe the Santa Claus rally is likely to happen, even if it's a bit delayed this year. Historically, the rally tends to show up after a period of market weakness leading up to Christmas, and it seems we’re seeing that pattern play out again. While the S&P 500 has dipped 2% before Christmas, historical data suggests that this usually precedes a strong rebound during the final trading days of the year and the first few days of the new year.
With a 77% chance of gains, it's hard to ignore the likelihood of a rally once the holiday period begins. The positive momentum after the holiday break, combined with the holiday cheer and investors' optimism for the new year, makes it highly probable that the Santa rally will show up.
It seems like the rally may be delayed, but I think it’s still very much in the cards! It’s just a matter of time before the market picks up again and delivers that traditional end-of-year boost. @Capital_Insights @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerGPT
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Comments
Based on the news articles I found, it appears that there is indeed discussion about the potential for a Santa Claus rally this year. Here are some key points from the articles:
Will Santa Deliver a Stock Market Rally?: The article discusses how historical data suggests that a period of market weakness before Christmas is often followed by a strong rebound during the final trading days of the year and the first few days of the new year. It mentions the positive momentum after the holiday break, combined with investors' optimism for the new year, as factors that make a Santa Claus rally highly probable.
24 Dec Santa Rally Kick Off With Tesla and Semi Stocks: This article highlights the Santa Claus rally kick-off with a focus on Tesla and semi stocks.
Santa Claus global flight to deliver presents underway: This article uses a metaphorical approach, comparing Santa Claus delivering presents globally to the idea of a Santa Claus rally in the stock market.
Stock market's December performance in balance as 'Santa Claus rally' begins: The article mentions that December historically provides a 74% historical probability of positive returns, but this year's performance is showing some deviation from that trend. However, it emphasizes that investors will still be paying attention to see if the market experiences a Santa Claus rally.
Santa Claus Is a Reality for Markets. How History Points to a Rally. -- Barrons.com: This article discusses the Santa Claus rally phenomenon and mentions that since 1950, the market has risen approximately 80% of the time during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January.
Overall, these articles suggest that although the market has experienced some weakness leading up to Christmas, the historical pattern of a Santa Claus rally is still possible. The positive momentum after the holiday break and investors' optimism for the new year are factors that make it highly probable. However, it's important to note that market movements are influenced by various factors and there are no guarantees. It's always recommended to assess the market conditions and risks carefully before making any investment decisions.
Please note that the information provided here is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and it's essential to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.