$Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Non-farm payrolls go cold + tariffs kick in! Gold Surges Nearly $100, More Highs in August? Weekly
2025.8.2
2025 the last week of July, the gold market ushered in the ‘super data week + policy black swan’ combination of impact, the trend of the roller coaster like a violent shock, and ultimately a strong finish. A series of key events to promote the gold from the shock consolidation strong breakthrough, the market rhythm of the full switch, a new round of upward trend curtain or has opened!
A brief description of the weekly market: gold three-phase outbreak, weekly rise of nearly 2%!
Gold prices this week run into three stages:
① early week sideways waiting for news, support in 3280-3290;
② FOMC statement hawkish, gold prices briefly back to 3268;
③ non-farm payrolls data cold + Trump tariffs start, gold single day storm pull, recover all the losses and release breakthrough 3305 neckline.
Full week range: 3268.48 - 3363.11 USD
Weekly gain: +1.95%, weekly close 3357.15 USD
Gold once again proved a truth: the market will not be late, but will certainly give the answer at the key point.
Fundamental review: non-farm payrolls + tariffs, two big positive triggered the market!
Non-farm payrolls data seriously cold
* Employment additions were only 73,000, compared to expectations of 175,000! Unemployment rose to 4.0% and payrolls weakened.
Markets instantly priced in a ‘September rate cut’ and gold soared!
The FOMC stayed put, but still sounded hawkish.
* Interest rates held at 4.25-4.50%, removing ‘labour tensions’ language, but not explicitly dovish.
After the data reversal, the market's understanding changed completely, and both US indices and gold prices fluctuated violently.
Trump officially launches “reciprocal tariffs” plan
* Risk aversion was instantly heightened with tax hikes on key areas such as Mexican steel, Canadian aluminium, and EU machinery.
Core PCE price index remains stubborn
* Monthly rate of 0.3%, annual rate of 2.4%, strong consumption but difficult to suppress the tide of risk aversion.
Dollar, U.S. bonds double kill, gold to take advantage of the breakthrough
* The U.S. index fell to 98.47, U.S. bond yields fell below 4.22%, gold ETF and CFTC long positions rebounded, long confidence fully restored.
Technical analysis: gold bulls have been fully launched?
[Daily chart
3305 neckline volume breakthrough, W bottom pattern is established
MACD golden fork + RSI overbought, long alignment established
The average system presents a standard rising channel
[4-hour chart]
The structure of ‘breakout - step back - second attack’ has been completed.
3310 has become a strong support, the short-term trend continues without a doubt
Key points
* Short-term support: 3310, 3285, 3268
* Upper target: 3380, 3400, 3435
Stabilised at 3305, the long trend continues. If lost, will return to shock.
Market Linkage Watch: Gold leads commodity markets higher
* US Dollar Index down 1.28% weekly, post-NFP flurry
* US bond yields plunged to 4.219%, supporting gold valuations
* Silver stronger than gold, up 2.6% to $38.1950
* Crude oil weakened, with WTI closing down 3.5 per cent as market inflation expectations cooled
* SPDR gold ETF net inflow of 2.6 tonnes, CFTC long position surges to 223,600
The data tell us: this round of gold rally, not a ‘flash in the pan’, but ‘institutional funds synchronised power’.
Officials turn dovish as markets look for policy loosening
* Fed Governor Cook: Economy showing signs of weakness, will be flexible in response
* Atlanta Fed's Bostic: non-farm payrolls are worrisome, but need more data to see
Expectations of a shift from ‘strong anti-inflation hawk’ to ‘cautious dove’ are festering!
What to watch for next week - 7th Aug + 9th Aug key
On Thursday 7th August, heavy data will be released:
* Initial Jobless Claims
* Unit Labour Costs
* Quarterly Non-Farm Productivity
* Wholesale Sales and Inventory Changes
August 9 (Saturday) Fed Vice Chairman Barr speech
If the continuation of the dovish tone + weak data, gold or direct impact 3400-3435!
Operation suggestion reference
Currently in the long advance stage, but the short-term rise is large, should not chase high
If step back 3310-3325 not broken, can consider light low absorption
If the volume breakthrough 3380, the target to 3435-3450
If the unexpected fall below 3305, need to temporarily wait and see
Keywords strategy: hold 3305, medium-term bullish;, data follow up; news confirmation, buy along the trend.
One sentence summary
Gold this week is not ‘accidentally rise’, but ‘multiple multiple resonance after the inevitable outbreak’!
Now the question is not ‘will not go up’, but ‘up to where to stop, where can get on the car’.
The second week of August, the market ushered in the core data verification + senior official speech intensive period, the battle 3400, a touch!
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