$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2508(BTCmain)$ $CME Ether - main 2508(ETHmain)$ Technical Launchpad: Box and Chop to Breakout ๐๐ ฑ๏ธ Uอ Lอ Lอ Iอ Sอ Hอ
Iโm watching $COIN showing standout resilience against $BTCโs recent swings, holding firmly in the $325โ$337.58 zone. That level is the ceiling before the Top Box range at $350. If we clear $337.58, the path is open to $350, then $365, with the upside squeeze target sitting at $380.75.
Weekly Keltner/Bollinger overlays show weโve rebounded from the $444.64 high into EMA compression, a classic volatility expansion trigger. On the 4H, momentum has turned post-downtrend, while the daily chart pins $337.58 as the pivot where momentum could ignite. The intraday flow also shows strong bids into $326 despite overhead chop, confirming bullish absorption.
Macro Catalyst: $12 Trillion Opens to Crypto
Iโm factoring in the transformational impact of Trumpโs executive order allowing crypto in 401(k) retirement plans. This unlocks $12 trillion in defined-contribution assets, with a modest 1% allocation equating to $120B in potential inflows, structural and consistent demand far beyond short-term trading hype.
This is not just bullish for $BTC and $ETH, it is a structural revenue accelerator for Coinbase via commissions, custody, staking, and stablecoin float yield. For the U.S. government, it is also a backdoor to sell Treasuries through stablecoins, suppressing yields.
Crypto Macro Context: ETH and BTC Setup
ETH is pressing the upper short-term channel with elevated RSI and slight negative divergence, a short-term caution, but institutional inflows remain powerful ($461M in ETH ETP inflows last week vs $253M for BTC).
BTC is coiling just under record highs (~$122K), with long-term patterns targeting $130Kโ$140K. Futures structures mirror prior breakouts that delivered triple-digit rallies. ETF demand, retirement-plan inflows, and regulatory easing are aligning into a historic setup.
Super-App Transformation: COINโs Strategic Edge
Iโm seeing Coinbase rapidly evolve from a crypto exchange to a multi-faceted fintech super-app. The Base App integrates DeFi access, payments, tokenized assets, and social trading. With SECโs Project Crypto roadmap, tokenized securities could be listed alongside digital assets, creating a first-mover moat in the U.S.
Stablecoin partnerships, particularly $CRCL, position COIN to collect recurring yield-like revenue streams. This diversifies away from commission cyclicality and ties its financial performance directly to stablecoin velocity and U.S. dollar liquidity.
๐๐โจWhy the Stars Align Now
โข Technical compression into $337.58 resistance
โข Historic macro policy catalyst unlocking $12T retirement capital
โข BTC and ETH macro tailwinds with institutional sponsorship
โข Super-app expansion positioning COIN as an โeverything exchangeโ
โข Stable, recurring income from stablecoin integrations
If $COIN breaks $337.58 with conviction, $350 becomes the new floor, $365 is the mid-term target, and $380+ is the squeeze zone. The setup blends short-term breakout probability with multi-quarter structural growth tailwinds, a rare alignment.
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