[Miser]Hey Tigers, gold and silver keep tagging fresh all-time highs—do you already own any?
Drop your trade in the comments.
THE ONE-LINE TAKEAWAY:
The market is treating $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ as a “USD-credit put option” and $Silver - main 2512(SImain)$ as “the same put with industrial leverage.” As long as the twin story of “wider fiscal deficit + confirmed rate-cut path” stays intact, the smart money sees >70 % odds of still-higher prices.
I. What U.S.-stock watchers are eyeing right now
Focus point | Fresh fact | Market takeaway |
|---|---|---|
Rate-cut pace | 15 Oct minutes price >80 % chance of another 50 bp cut this year | Every –10 bp in real yield ≈ +$25 on gold |
Fiscal spiral | 2026 deficit draft ≥7 % GDP; Trump-2.0 tax-cut talk | Each extra 1 % deficit → +$150 mid-cycle gold |
Central-bank buying | Q3 global net purchase 297 t; China 11th straight month of adds | Creates a rigid demand floor |
Silver squeeze | Spot flash-crash –6 % on 14 Oct → instant recovery to $53.6 record | Structural deficit + algo buying |
II. Street target refresh (Oct 2025)
Bank | Gold ($/oz) | Silver ($/oz) | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
5 000 | 65 | End-’26 | |
4 900 | — | Dec-’26 | |
4 200 | — | Mid-’26 | |
4 300 | — | Q4-’26 |
Consensus mid-point: Gold $4 300-5 000 (+12-30 %), Silver $60-65 (+20-30 %)
Read more>>
Gold Hits Record High, Silver Faces Historic Short Squeeze @jessica_twt
Gold & Silver Hit Record Highs – Latest Technical Take (14 Oct 2025) @TechnicalHunter
Daily Charts - Gold & Silver jump to a new all-time high @Trend_Radar
III. Will it keep going?
Probability & scenarios High-prob (>70 %) – Dec cut of 25 bp + 2026 deficit blow-out → real rates turn negative; Gold $4 200-4 300, Silver $55-60; CB buying ≥200 t/qtr.
Base case (50-70 %) – Only one cut then pause; limited fiscal push → Gold range $3 800-4 000, Silver $45-50.
Risk case (<30 %) – Fed hawkish pivot on inflation + Congress slashes spending → real yields back >1 %; Gold pullback $3 400-3 500, Silver $38-40.
IV. Where the money is flowing
ETFs – $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ took in 38 t in the first week of Oct, AUM >$100 bn; SLV holdings at 21-month high.
Futures – GC net-long share 35 %; SI & QI open-interest at records, long/short ratio 2.6:1.
Single stocks – $Harmony Gold Mining(HMY)$ , $Gold Fields(GFI)$ $Pan American Silver(PAAS)$ all ranked top-10 pre-market in Materials flow.
V. U.S.-listed “tool kit”
Physical gold: $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ , $SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust(GLDM)$ , $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ , $VanEck Merk Gold ETF(OUNZ)$
Physical silver: $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ , $abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF(SIVR)$
Silver explorers: $SilverCrest Metals Inc(SILV)$
2× miners: $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ $ProShares Ultra Silver(AGQ)$
1× miners: $VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS A SHARES(GDX.UK)$ , $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$, $Global X Silver Miners ETF(SIL)$
ADRs: $Harmony Gold Mining(HMY)$ , $Gold Fields(GFI)$ , $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ , $Barrick Gold Corp(GOLD)$ , $Pan American Silver(PAAS)$ , $Coeur Mining(CDE)$ , $First Majestic Silver(AG)$
Bottom line
Upward revisions are unanimous, futures longs + ETF inflows provide the fuel. As long as the “rate-cut + deficit” script stays, higher prints are the high-probability path—but volatility is fierce. Match the vehicle to your risk budget and keep any single name ≤10 % of equity.
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