Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ just hit $4 trillion on October 28, becoming the first company in history to reach that milestone again after its 2022 pullback.
The rally reignited the trillion-dollar race among tech giants—and now, investors are asking one big question: could Alphabet $Alphabet(GOOG)$ be next?
With AI momentum accelerating, YouTube ad growth rebounding, and Google Cloud closing in on profitability, some Tigers believe Alphabet is quietly positioning itself for the next market-cap breakout. Others worry its rising CapEx could weigh on near-term returns.
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This week, we’ve selected insights from @jc888 @HawS @nerdbull1669 @Bullaroo —here’s what they have to say about Alphabet’s path toward the $4 trillion club.
Click author’s name to read the full analysis:
1. @nerdbull1669 Could Alphabet (GOOGL) Rising CapEx Be A Major Headwind For Upcoming Earnings?
Key Points:
Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis & Forecast
Current consensus expectations for Q3 2025 are generally pointing toward continued revenue growth, primarily driven by the strength of Google Services (Search and YouTube) and significant expansion in Google Cloud, though there is a forecast for a slight decline in Earnings Per Share (EPS) quarter-over-quarter due to heavy investment.
Alphabet Inc. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, largely exceeding analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings, driven by robust performance across its core segments, particularly Google Cloud and its AI initiatives.
Key Themes and Drivers:
AI-Driven Momentum: The primary driver is the ongoing positive impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) integration across Google's segments, particularly in Search and Cloud. The market will be looking for concrete evidence of how this innovation is translating into measurable revenue.
Increased Capital Expenditure (CapEx): Alphabet has been aggressively investing in AI data centers and infrastructure to meet the surging demand for Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and generative AI solutions. While necessary for long-term growth, this is expected to put upward pressure on expenses and potentially limit margin expansion in the short term.
Resilient Advertising Business: Despite broader macroeconomic slowdowns that may affect online advertising spending, Google's core Search and YouTube platforms are expected to remain resilient due to their dominant market positions.
2. @jc888 GOOG Hits $290 After Q3 2025 Earnings ? Maybe ?
Key Points:
If GOOG's earnings meet and beat expectations, it can break above this weekly trend channel resistance and extend its gains towards the next upside target at $280.
Perhaps GOOGs greatest leverage is its foothold on:
Artificial Intelligence (current IT wave) that is being rolled out progressively by US tech giants.
Quantum Computing (next IT wave) that is improving in its stability & processing speed by leaps and bounds.
GOOG currently trades with a forward P/E in the mid-20s, that is notably lower than most of the other Magnificent 7 stocks, whose P/E ratios generally exceed 30 (except $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$) .
GOOG’s sales-based valuation ratios (eg. Price/Sales and EV/Sales) are also far below its big tech peers, marking it as fundamentally undervalued on multiple key metrics.
The combination of (a) attractive earnings and (b) sales multiples makes GOOG a “must-buy” standout in a crowded tech landscape where most competitors command much richer premiums, with only $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ differing due to the inherently slim margins in its eCommerce business.
With so much going on for GOOG, be it in AI or QC, what is there not to like about this Tech giant?
3. @HawS The $4 Trillion Race: Who Will Follow Nvidia?
Key Points:
With Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (market cap: ~$4.5 trillion) having definitively smashed the $4 trillion barrier thanks to the generative AI boom, the race is on for who comes next.
Wall Street's attention is now locked on a two-horse race between the market's long-reigning titans, $Apple(AAPL)$ (market cap: ~$3.99 trillion) and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (market cap: ~$3.95 trillion). Both are hovering just below the milestone, with $Alphabet(GOOG)$ (market cap: ~$3.26 trillion) as a strong, but more distant, contender.
4. @Bullaroo “The AI Capex Paradox: Will Google’s $90B Bet Pay Off Tomorrow?”
Key Points:
The Core Thesis: Alphabet Is Not Just an Ad Company Anymore — But It Still Is
Let’s be clear: ~78% of revenue still comes from advertising. But the growth engine has shifted.
Insight: Cloud will grow 3.3x faster than ads. This is no longer a “Search monopoly” story — it’s a cloud + AI infrastructure play with an ad moat.
Deep Dive: The Three Drivers That Matter
1. Google Cloud — The $100B Runway
Market Share: 11% → 12.5%+ in enterprise cloud
2. AI Monetisation — It’s Happening, Quietly
Gemini Ultra ($20/mo) now has a higher ARPU than YouTube Premium
Search Generative Experience (SGE) increases session time by 28% → more ad impressions
3.Capex: The $90B Question
Alphabet guided $85B capex for 2025. We expect $88–$92B — and that’s good news.
Efficiency improving: More GPUs per dollar (Blackwell, TPU v5)
Utilisation up: Cloud data centres at 82% capacity (vs 68% in 2023)
Questions for you:
Will Alphabet be the next to join the $4 trillion club after Apple — or will Microsoft get there first?
Are you adding GOOG to your portfolio ahead of its next earnings breakout?
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Comments
Nothing wrong with that, but there is so much more to be done.
Instead of purely doing LLM that hallucinates and spouts garbage, it could have fine-tuned the tools it had, like how Google Search could originally pick at snipppets to answer what we were looking for.
Instead it uses precious real estate to show an AI overview, while quoting sources making their interface so clunky and messy and consumers still have to jump through hoops to make sure the summary is correct (by clicking the sources, which really makes little difference from the old search).
I am sure there is so much more that they could do in their other ventures too.