Shyon
15:57

When I look at Rocket Lab, I do see a credible and increasingly important player in the space launch ecosystem, especially as global demand for launch capacity continues to grow. The company has executed well in smallsat launches with Electron and has built a meaningful space systems business, which gives it more diversified revenue than many pure-launch startups. The Neutron rocket, if delivered on time and within budget, could materially expand Rocket Lab's addressable market and justify some of the recent bullish analyst targets.

That said, I'm more cautious about the $90 price target in the near term. Neutron remains the key swing factor, and until we see clear technical milestones and commercial contracts translating into recurring cash flow, expectations may be running ahead of fundamentals. Space is capital-intensive, timelines are unforgiving, and execution risk is very real. Rocket Lab can succeed, but the path to becoming a true heavyweight is still long.

When I compare Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$  to SpaceX, the gap is still substantial. SpaceX is not just a launch company — it's an integrated space infrastructure platform. Falcon 9's reusability, Starship's long-term ambition, and Starlink's cash-generating capability create a flywheel that no other company currently matches. That scale advantage lowers launch costs, attracts the biggest contracts, and reinforces SpaceX's dominance.

From an investment perspective, this is why I remain more bullish on SpaceX's business model than on Rocket Lab as a direct challenger. SpaceX benefits from vertical integration, internal demand from Starlink, and unmatched launch cadence, which together form a moat that is extremely difficult to replicate. Rocket Lab doesn't need to "beat" SpaceX to succeed, but competing head-on at the same scale is a very different challenge.

Ultimately, I see Rocket Lab as a strong complementary player rather than a SpaceX replacement. There is room in the market for multiple winners as space commercialization accelerates, and Rocket Lab can carve out a valuable niche. But if the question is which company I'm more bullish on structurally and long term, my answer remains SpaceX.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community. 

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Can Rocket Lab Become a Serious Challenger to SpaceX?
Rocket Lab is positioning itself as an alternative to SpaceX as customers push for more launch capacity. The company is leaning on its growing space systems business and next-generation Neutron rocket to broaden its reach. Needham analyst Ryan Koontz reiterated the Buy rating on the stock, raising the price forecast from $63 to $90. Are you bullish on Rocket Lab's $90 target? SpaceX vs Rocket Lab: which one are you bullish?
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