$AXT Inc(AXTI)$ $AXTI drops 29

$AXTI drops 29.54% AHs on:

- Lowered Q4 2025 revenue expectations to a range of $23M midpoint, from $27m-$30m.

Thoughts: this is immaterial to the bottleneck issue since price shock just came in end of ~December 27th into January (now). This was former earnings, we care about future earning projections with inflated margins from pricing power.

- AXTI received export control delays and expect to recognize the revenue Q1 2026.

This just realizes the former backlog Q1. This is not lost revenue. Export controls have known delays and risks.

TLDR: former earnings are immaterial to thesis and these are just known delays that recognizes the same revenue next quarter.

Care more about what happens at the inflection point of demand squeeze starting ~Dec 27th onwards, not former backlogged earnings before the InP craze.

@TigerObserver @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerPM @TigerStars

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Comments

Ah_Meng
01-09
Ah_Meng
Why is there a craze now? What changed?
- Shernice軒嬣 2000:
  Nothing major yeah, I ended up dumping about 100 pratas last month when my app failed to scan CDC vouchers, order processing was slow. But the good news? I just secured huge long-term orders from several large companies, my Jap neighbor not selling pratas due flour shortage as China curbs export
Ah_Meng
01-09
Ah_Meng
Is the manufacturing China based and subject to export control for this bottleneck issue?
Shernice軒嬣 2000
01-09
Shernice軒嬣 2000
It's has China manufacturing sites. The exports control is against Japan.

Leave a comment

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What changed?","text":"Why is there a craze now? What changed?","html":"Why is there a craze now? 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But the good news? I just secured huge long-term orders from several large companies, my Jap neighbor not selling pratas due flour shortage as China curbs export","text":"Nothing major yeah, I ended up dumping about 100 pratas last month when my app failed to scan CDC vouchers, order processing was slow. But the good news? I just secured huge long-term orders from several large companies, my Jap neighbor not selling pratas due flour shortage as China curbs export","html":"Nothing major yeah, I ended up dumping about 100 pratas last month when my app failed to scan CDC vouchers, order processing was slow. But the good news? 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The exports control is against Japan. <t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e7aa4eb3cb80a49a15d16c952b40a06c\"></t-t>","text":"It's has China manufacturing sites. The exports control is against Japan. <t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e7aa4eb3cb80a49a15d16c952b40a06c\"></t-t>","html":"It's has China manufacturing sites. The exports control is against Japan. <t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e7aa4eb3cb80a49a15d16c952b40a06c\"></t-t>","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/519694212391184"}