Huat99
01-24
$Intel(INTC)$ 🧠 Intel (INTC) — Inflection Analysis
Intel’s existential risk is gone — but the stock is now running ahead of the fundamentals.
Backed by government funding and strategic equity from NVIDIA & SoftBank, Intel has established a hard strategic floor. The market is now pricing in execution perfection.

📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE (structural)
Balance sheet stabilized, narrative reset to IDM 2.0.

Atomic evidence:
• ~$7B NVIDIA/SoftBank investment at ~$23 (Q3’25)
• Gross margin trough passed: 34.8% vs 32.7% in 2024
• Impairments down to $950M from $3.3B
• Inventory reserves +$878M tied to early 18A ramp
• Share count +16% YoY → dilution drag

⚠️ Bottleneck:
Intel 18A HVM yield and external foundry customer ramp.

💰 Price-conditioned valuation:
At **$45.07 (23 Jan ’26)**, the stock assumes flawless 18A execution and a rapid return to >40% gross margins.

🧠 Verdict: Hold / Monitor.
Strategic support is real — but execution proof must catch up to price.
🤖 AI-assisted analysis
@Tiger_comments @TigerObserver @TigerPicks @TigerStars @TigerWire @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings 
Intel Slumps on Weak Q1 Guidance: Opportunity or Trap?
Intel delivered a mixed Q4: revenue fell 4% YoY but beat estimates, EPS jumped 15% YoY, and Data Center & AI revenue rose 9% above expectations. Intel also completed a $5B equity sale to NVIDIA, and marked 18A as the first leading-edge node in mass production on U.S. soil. However, weak Q1 guidance on revenue, EPS, and gross margin sent shares down 11% after hours. Is Intel’s post-earnings selloff driven more by near-term execution issues or conservative guidance? If supply and yields improve after Q1, can 18A and future 14A customers re-anchor the turnaround story?
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