This Wednesday, $SIA(C6L.SI)$ surged to a seven-month intraday high of S$7.19. Despite intensifying industry competition and downward pressure on pricing, SIA's Passenger Yield unexpectedly staged a turnaround. Is this a short-term technical bounce, or the starting gun for a new bull cycle?
1. Record Revenue vs. "Halved" Profit? The Biggest Surprise is Yield Pivot
According to the 3QFY2026 (third quarter) results, SIA delivered a set of paradoxical figures:
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Revenue: Reached S$5.51 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year, setting a new quarterly record.
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Net Profit: S$505 million, a year-on-year plunge of 68.9%.
The profit crash was not due to poor operations, but rather a high base effect. Last year’s quarter included a S$1.1 billion one-off accounting gain (primarily from the Vistara disposal). If strip out these one-off items, SIA’s operating profit actually grew by nearly 26%.
Highlight: Passenger Yield staged a turnaround.
Over the past year, as global aviation capacity recovered and low-cost carriers (LCCs) ramped up competition, airfares have faced significant downward pressure. However, SIA’s passenger yield grew 1.9% year-on-year this quarter.
This suggests SIA has regained pricing power. Whether it is the inelastic demand for Business Class or premium holiday travel, SIA remains one of the few airlines capable of making passengers pay a premium for the "Singapore Girl" brand.
2. Stock Falls After New High: What is Market Worried About?
SIA loses 1% after yesterday's new high. Despite the glittering revenue, SIA is not without its challenges. When compared to Asia-Pacific peers, market consensus remains divided.
Associates "Dragging the Chain"
This quarter, SIA recognized S$178 million in losses from associated companies, largely driven by Air India. The integration pains of the Indian market are lasting longer than expected, becoming a primary "black hole" for net earnings.
Soft Cargo Demand:
Cargo revenue fell 5.4% year-on-year, reflecting uncertainty in global trade recovery, creating a stark contrast to the booming passenger segment.
3. Institutional Outlook: A Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears
In the face of this rally, top investment banks have offered sharply different advice:
DBS Group Research:
Bullish (Hold/Buy bias, target prices adjusted toward S$6.50–$7.20 range) DBS views the yield improvement as a "inflection point" signal. Analyst Tabitha Foo noted that SIA's Premiumisation strategy is paying off, and this pricing edge is expected to hold through Q4, offsetting cargo weakness.
Citi Research:
Bearish (Maintaining "Sell" rating, target price S$6.28) While analyst Kaseedit Choonnawat admitted performance exceeded expectations and expected a positive short-term market reaction, he remains concerned about long-term competitive pressures and Air India's uncertainty. Citi believes the current stock price has already priced in the good news.
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Is it too late to buy in or good news already priced in?
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Do you think Air India’s losses are "temporary growing pains"?
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How much longer can SIA’s "High-Price Strategy" be sustained?
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Comments
Of course, risks remain. Losses from Air India and weaker cargo demand are clear drags. I see Air India more as long-term strategic pain rather than structural damage, but the timeline for improvement will be key to sentiment.
At current levels, I think much of the good news is priced in. I’m cautiously constructive — not chasing highs, but open to accumulating on pullbacks if yield momentum sustains.
@TigerClub @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG
SIA has just delivered a breathtaking SGD 5.51 billion in its latest quarterly revenue - the highest ever recorded. With a 87.5% load factor, customers are choosing the SIA Experience as a great way to fly, paying extra for the premium experience.
The SGD 178 Millon hit from Air India is simply the cost of building a global aerial empire. It is expected that by 2028, Air India may become the ultimate "alpha engine" of growth for SIA.
With a current dividend yield of 4.8%, investors receive a great source of passive income while waiting for capital growth ahead.
As a Singaporean, I am proud of how far SIA has come from its humble beginnings in 1972 to be a global superstar.
@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Despite a 69% plunge in headline net profit due to missing one-off gains and Air India losses, the core business is actually flying high. Bulls are cheering a record $5.5B in quarterly revenue and a 26% jump in operating profit driven by robust travel demand. 📈
Will SIA's strong operating performance and passenger demand outweigh the pressure of rising fuel costs for your portfolio?👇
Monthly Chart TA: https://ttm.financial/post/536451537248992
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Associates "Dragging the Chain"
This quarter, SIA recognized S$178 million in losses from associated companies, largely driven by Air India. The integration pains of the Indian market are lasting longer than expected, becoming a primary "black hole" for net earnings.
Find out more here.
Other helpful links:
SIA is shifting from simple high pricing to AI-driven revenue management to maintain its margins despite rising costs.
AI Dynamic Pricing: SIA is moving toward Continuous Pricing, using AI to adjust fares in real-time based on exact demand rather than traditional fixed fare buckets.
Sustainability Surcharges: Starting October 2026, the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) Levy will add up to S$41.60 to premium tickets, testing passenger loyalty.
Market Resilience: Despite higher fares, SIA maintains a dominant load factor because the global "premium travel" segment remains less price-sensitive than the budget market.