Hormuz Is Closed — The Next Global Shock May Not Be Oil, Fertilizer Supply Shock Could Send Global Food Prices Soaring

One third of the world fertilizer pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Now the strait close already. Everybody talk about oil price only. But nobody talking about food crisis coming.

Urea price — the fertilizer feeding half the world crops — already $584 per ton on 9 March. Just 11 days jump 29%. Before war only $470.

DAP fertilizer also jump to $655 per ton.

Same story like oil.

Because Iran export about 10–12% of global urea, now supply gone. And the huge fertilizer complex at Ras Laffan Industrial City also stop production.

Shipping through Hormuz collapse 70–75%. Fertilizer cannot move because ships cannot get insurance.

So chain reaction start:

Fertilizer cannot ship →

Farmers cannot buy →

Soil no nitrogen →

Less grain harvest →

Bread price go up.

Cities like Cairo, Lagos, Dhaka, Jakarta will feel it first.

Oil crisis everybody watching.

But fertilizer crisis ah… slow one.

When it hit, it hit rice field and wheat farm, not Bloomberg terminal.

Oil make headlines.

Nitrogen make food.

And when fertilizer price go up, some companies make big money.

So investors already watching these stocks.

Stocks that benefit if fertilizer shortage continue

1. CF Industries (CF)

$CF Industries Holdings Inc(CF)$  

Biggest nitrogen fertilizer producer in North America. War disruption already pushing the stock higher because urea prices are surging. 

2. Nutrien (NTR)

$Nutrien Ltd.(NTR)$  

World’s largest potash producer and one of the biggest fertilizer companies globally with strong earnings growth. 

3. The Mosaic Company (MOS)

$Mosaic(MOS)$  

Major phosphate and potash supplier used worldwide for crop production. 

4. Yara International (YARIY)

$Yara International ASA(YARIY)$  

Global nitrogen fertilizer giant with large international distribution network. 

Muthu conclusion (very important)

Oil crisis = energy inflation

Fertilizer crisis = food inflation

First the market trade oil.

Later the market trade food.

When fertilizer price explode, the companies selling fertilizer usually print money.

So boss… next time people shouting about oil.

Smart money already watching fertilizer stocks. 🌾📈

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