S&P 500 at Make-or-Break Support as Oversold Signals Build

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 22 March 2026

This week: technical check, inversion question, drawdowns, global tech, margin debt, valuations and positioning, earnings revisions, global macro pulse, stock return distributions, emerging markets...

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

Stocks are at a make-or-break point (major support level).
Conditions are increasingly oversold.
Sentiment and valuations have seen a partial reset.
(albeit from an overvalued/excess-greed starting point)
Pre-war, the global earnings/macro pulse was on a promising path.

Overall, as noted, it’s a dangerous setup (clear technical deterioration from a starting point of overvaluation and excess-greed, with downside tail-risks for the global economy). But at the same time, if we’re going to get a rebound (maybe a combination of no new bad news, or some less bad news) then technically speaking it’s a bit of a now-or-never moment…

1. Technical Check

my initial reaction on seeing this week’s technical-check chart is that we went from bad to worse. But on closer inspection it looks like we’re sitting at a major support level with 50dma breadth now into proper oversold conditions. Add to that Trump-talk around “winding down” military efforts, and a decent (albeit incomplete) reset in sentiment, and it looks like a key juncture.

(and if we don’t rally from here, I’d say next stop is 6000) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$

2. Would you buy it?

On that note, as a bias check for bulls, flipping the S&P500 upside down …it kind of looks bullish (which is not a good thing).

Credit to The ChartReport for inspiring this one.

3. Drawdown in Context

worth keeping in mind, 5-10% sell-offs are very common, 10-20% corrections at not uncommon, and 30%+ drops happen ~once per decade (you will likely see multiple of them during your lifetime). And another thing, not all sell-offs turn into bear markets, but all bear markets start as a sell-off!

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Market Crashes, VIX Skyrockets! Is S&P 500 Heading Toward 6300?

U.S. stocks closed lower again last week, causing all three major U.S. indices to turn negative for the year. The market is facing another "Black Monday," with the VIX surging by 15%. How much further will it drop this week? Are we looking at 6300 or even 6000?

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