Shyon
04-07
I find both strategies interesting, but I wouldn’t take the “100% win rate” literally. CNBC’s “Markets in Turmoil” makes sense psychologically — extreme fear often marks a bottom — but it’s based on limited historical context. Similarly, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ being higher a year later reflects long-term upward bias, not a guaranteed signal.

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 35/15 rule feels more practical since it measures market sentiment. High VIX shows panic, low VIX shows complacency, but I see it as a guideline rather than a strict rule — markets can stay fearful or calm longer than expected.

I wouldn’t rely on these strategies alone, but I’d use them as a sentiment overlay. For me, it’s about scaling in during fear, staying disciplined, and avoiding emotional moves, rather than trying to time the market perfectly.

@Tiger_chat @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_comments

S&P, Dow Break Records: Would January Effect Last?
S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at record highs. As January goes, so goes the year. When January closes positive, the S&P 500 is higher 89% of the time, with an average gain of 17% and an average maximum drawdown of 10.5%. When January is negative, average returns fall to -1.8%, with only a 50% hit rate and deeper market drawdowns. How do you see 2026 unfolding? Will U.S. equities continue to deliver double-digit gains, or lag behind other global markets? Will AI leadership rotate toward memory stocks or SaaS companies?
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Comments

  • keke006
    04-08
    keke006
    Spot on! Sentiment indicators like VIX help, but staying disciplined beats over-reliance. [看涨]
    • Shyon: 
      Aboslutely, agree with you
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