Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!
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Key News-Driven Factors (Mixed Bullish and Bearish Sentiment, with Bears Slightly in the Lead) ： $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$
1. Bearish: The Fed’s monetary policy remains generally hawkish. Situation: Fed officials (such as Kevin Warsh) have previously raised their inflation and interest rate forecasts for 2026. Currently, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while it is highly likely that rates will remain unchanged in July, the market is still pricing in the expectation of another rate hike in the future (e.g., in September). High real interest rates resulting from a high-interest-rate environment, coupled with a strong U.S. Dollar Index, are currently the primary macroeconomic headwinds temporarily weighing on gold prices.
2. Bullish Factors: Weak Nonfarm Payrolls and Potential Support from Geopolitical Tensions Situation: Last week’s U.S. June nonfarm payrolls data (showing only 57,000 new jobs) fell significantly short of expectations, briefly propelling gold to rebound strongly from below $4,000 to around $4,180. In addition, geopolitical tensions—such as risks of instability in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran relations—have caused volatility in crude oil prices, and lingering inflation concerns have also limited the scope for a sharp decline in gold prices.
3. Key Variable: The market is currently focused on the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting, set to be released Wednesday evening. If the minutes reaffirm the Fed’s determination to control inflation, they will further boost the U.S. dollar and weigh on gold prices; conversely, if the tone is more dovish, gold is likely to regain upward momentum. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
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There come the technical analysis:
The short-term trend in gold has reached a very subtle yet critical turning point. Compared to the previous one-sided decline, a bullish candle with increased volume has now appeared, directly altering the short-term dynamics between bulls and bears.
Early signs of a bottoming out: Gold found support near the lower Bollinger Band (just above $4,091), and the long bullish candle on the far right shot up, with its body breaking through the resistance of the red moving average (MA). The current market is no longer in a purely bearish downtrend; the bulls’ counterattack has shifted the market into a “rebound correction” or “consolidation at lower levels” phase! The key resistance zone is currently at $4,135–4,140!
If gold successfully holds this level, it will further test $4,160 and possibly even $4,183!
Maintain a “Buy” bias in the Asian and European sessions!
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