Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower

A Long-Term Investor’s Mindset 🏆 Looking at my portfolio, I am currently up about US$25 overall on my IAU Gold Trust position. The unrealized loss on my shares is larger, but over the past months I have recovered a significant portion of that through consistently selling covered calls. To many investors, seeing a red number may be discouraging, but I see it differently. $IAU 20260702 85.5 CALL$  I remind myself that an unrealized loss is only temporary unless I decide to sell my shares. As long as I continue to own IAU and believe in the long-term investment thesis for gold, temporary fluctuations are simply part of investing. Instead of worrying about the daily market price, I focus on generating regular income while

The Gold Rush Isn't Over, Just Catching Its Breath.  Which Gold ETF to Buy? 🌟🌟🌟 Gold has had a wild ride lately.  After hitting breathtaking highs, the market took a sharp downturn.  If you watch the charts, you might feel a bit of a panic.  But don't let fear dictate your next move. Right now, Gold isn't crashing.  It is simply resting, cooling off and returning to a much healthier and more reasonable price range.  The global forces keeping Gold strong, like central banks buying it up in massive quantities, have not changed.  This pullback is just a rare second chance for investors who felt they missed the boat earlier this year. Smart Investors are Eyeing IAU Over GLD ETF If you want to add the safety of Gold to your portfolio today, how you buy it matt

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:

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*Gold Breaks Below $4,000: Will We See $3,500?* Gold’s drop below the $4,000/oz level has caught traders’ attention, raising the question: is $3,500 next? After hitting record highs above $4,300 in late September 2026 on safe-haven demand, gold has corrected as U.S. Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened. A stronger dollar makes gold costlier for foreign buyers, while higher yields reduce bullion’s appeal since it pays no interest. Current affairs are also in play. Markets are watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate decision and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. If the Fed signals more rate hikes to fight inflation, gold could face further pressure toward $3,800-$3,500. Conversely, any escalation in global risk or a Fed pivot to cuts would

I think there is still further downside for gold. The war in Iran is far from over and the global market will take some time to react to lowered oil prices if that even happens. I don’t think a Fed cut would be enough to restart the bull market for gold. Many would have been scarred by this and gold is still at insane levels compared to historical levels and I think many would rather put their money in technology and AI for the longer run. A short spike is expected with market optimism but I don’t see a bull run as many would just likely speculate and take it as for swing trading for quick profits. I have never liked gold as they don’t offer growth. They mainly reflect the supply and demand imbalance of the market and strives when there is fear in the market. During times of fear, I ra

A drop to $3500 levels would likely require further appreciation of the USD & US economic data pushing real interest rates higher. Central Bank Buying & long term speculative buying can prop it up significantly.

The USD depreciated and gold prices rose. Combined with growing investor awareness of US indebtedness, people caught the fever and started buying gold, which in turn drove up demand. Higher prices begot more buying, and the cycle fed on itself With the pace of cuts decelerating for 2026, and because markets are forward-looking, the previously aggressive easing path was priced out and the USD strengthened. Gold, which had risen on the expectation of rate cuts and a weaker dollar, suddenly became vulnerable. Add in unwinding speculative demand, and gold struggled to defend its levels and began to fall. And that was all before the Iran war. The outbreak of conflict worsened the outlook for gold. Higher energy prices mean more dollars are needed to transact, boosting demand for the USD and lif

Most overvalued asset in the world, should absolutely not buy. gold is pure speculation with no intrinsic value. About time for blind speculators to pay the price 

gold has dropped but it is not bottomed yet, aLso keep in mind that gold does not pay dividend or interest, it only appreciate in value overtime if you look back the prices it comes Ross over the years, then you will have good idea gold is not for short term gain it is for long-term holding . may be part of your  retirement fund

I'm waiting for a daily MACD divergence and peak rate-hike confirmation before averaging into gold.