NFLX, chance to Rise with Q2 Earnings ?

It’s Coming.

In the season of quarterly earnings report, TV darling $Netflix(NFLX)$ is due to report its own on Thu, 16 Jul 2026 after market has closed.

Before that happens, let’s recap what have been happening to NFLX since walking away from the $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ bidding war; that incidentally is still facing a lot of oppositions on its merger with $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$.

$Bank of America(BAC)$ is still bullish about NFLX with a 'Buy' rating and a price target $125 per share, despite a -19.19% decline in its shares YTD. (see below)

As of 14 Jul 2026

According to BAC, NFLX’s YTD decline reflects:

• Investor concerns over engagement trends.

• Potential AI-impact on content creation.

• Heightened competition following recent media mergers and acquisitions (M&As).

However, the banking giant argues that NFLX has successfully navigated similar periods of skepticism in the past and is likely to be able to do so again.

Case In Point.

In 2022, NFLX experienced significant slowed subscriber growth. As a result, share price declined more than -50%.

Management was able to turn things with initiatives such as (a) paid sharing and (b) its ad-supported tier, which helped accelerate growth again.

Again, in late 2023, many analysts also noted that investor concerns over margin expansion were ‘unfounded’ because NFLX followed up with another year of strong operational execution.

Overall, the bank is confident in NFLX management’s track record of "consistently" adapting to changing market conditions, executing effectively, and creating long-term shareholder value.

Q2 2026 Outlook

(1) Outlook Expectations.

Revenue is expected to grow +13.5% YoY ($12.58 billion), slowing from Q2 2025’s +15.9% ($11.12 billion).

EPS is expected to come in at $0.79, vs Q2 2025’s $0.72 per share.

Forecasts will land largely in-line with analysts’ consensus.

Instead, investors’ attention will center on:

• The company's outlook for H2 2026.

• Engagement trends.

• Management's view on acquisition appetite & broader strategic priorities.

(2) Sentiments & Dynamics.

Sentiment toward NFLX remains subdued following its recent decline.

A stronger-than-expected results and raised guidance will definitely ease market & investor concerns.

While signs of further slowing in the business, could reinforce bearish views and pressure NFLX's valuation.

(3) Key Bearish Risks:

Risks cited by bearish investors could include (i) slowing engagement, (ii) increased competition from platforms eg. YouTube and short-form video services.

Potential impact of AI on content creation, and uncertainty surrounding a more active approach to acquisitions compared with NFLX's historical strategy.

Despite above concerns, BAC believes NFLX will continue to support shareholder returns over time because NFLX has:

• A significant runway for subscriber and advertising growth.

• Putting it in context, by end 2025, it has surpassed 325 million paid subscribers globally, and has maintained commanding lead over streaming competitors (despite increased competition) from [1] Disney ($DIS), Amazon ($AMZN) , Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD), and Paramount Skydance ($PSKY).

• Supported by its global scale, expanding advertising business, and strong balance sheet.

Price Targets.

The financial institutions have unilaterally provided their latest ratings of NFLX:

$Morgan Stanley(MS)$

• Analyst Sean Diffley lowered NFLX's price target to $90 from $115 and maintained an Overweight rating due to concerns that (a) price hikes, (b) seasonal weakness and (c) a lighter content slate may have increased subscription cancellation.

• The new price target still implies a +22.4% upside to the stock's 14 Jul 2026 closing price.

• Lastly, it anticipates NFLX's Q3 2026 outlook to match Street expectations and believes its 2026 financial guidance will be reaffirmed.

Barclays Plc

• The bank cut NFLX's price target to $85 from $110 while keeping an 'Equal Weight' rating.

• Barclays noted that investors are (now) focusing more on (a) media industry mergers and (b) rumors than on quarterly earnings.

• For example, NFLX has walked away from potential deals with WBD assets and failed to win the bidding contest for Roku Inc (ROKU).

• Even if advertising revenue beats expectations, these broader industry deals are likely to dominate attention during earnings season.

Collectively, analysts from Oppenheimer, KeyBanc, Citibank and Bernstein also slashed their price targets to $100, $92, $100 & $100 respectively, mainly they believe the stock's valuation is high.

However, they kept their “Buy”-equivalent ratings, pointing to the company's strong long-term growth prospects.

As of 14 Jul 2026 end day

Technical Analysis.

There is a lot riding on NFLX’s quarterly earnings report on Thu, 16 Jul 2026.

On whether the current moment is a buy-in opportunity for NFLX, I defer to NFLX’s technical indicators of (a) Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 20-day, 50-day & 200-day, (b) MACD and (c) RSI.

Simple Moving Average. (SMA)

On Tue, 14 Jul 2026, NFLX ended the day at $73.53 /share.

This is lower than its SMA of (a) 20-day ($74.90), (b) 50-day ($81.64) and (c) 200-day ($94.47).

In short, NFLX is in a clear bearish trend across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. How could it not be when NFLX is still in a death-cross formation since 04 Dec 2025.

Rallies are still being sold, trend followers are likely bearish, at least for the immediate to mid-term.

MACD.

NFLX’s MACD readings indicate bearish momentum and a weakening downtrend.

When both MACD (-2.18) and Signal lines (-2.60) trending below the Zero line, it means the stock in a bearish trend with downward momentum.

Its positive Divergence (+0.42) suggests selling pressure is slowing down.

RSI.

With 14-day RSI at 38.89 means the stock is in a weak, bearish phase but is approaching oversold territory.

Summary.

I cannot help but feel the dark cloud hanging over NFLX is gathering pace instead of tapering off.

This leaves investors to ponder the classic psychological dilemma:

• Does current downward momentum represents a falling knife to avoid.

• Or a coiled spring quietly preparing for its next leap.

Which side of the fence will you be seated ?

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• Do you think NFLX will hand in a stellar set of Q2 earnings ?

• Do you think NFLX stock price will rise higher after its earnings are out ?

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