Big Tech Reality Check: Microsoft Report Card

koolgal
07:58

🌟🌟🌟The tech world has just faced its ultimate reality check today.  Following the Nasdaq100 dip of 4.6% over the past 5 days, $Microsoft(MSFT)$  became the first of the Big 4 Tech stocks to report its latest earnings this week.   Microsoft's massive results show that the AI race is getting more expensive and more intense.


How Microsoft's Brand New Report Card Just Went 

Microsoft actually beat Wall Street's expectations for both total and overall profit, proving its core business is still an absolute giant.  However the stock faced immediate post market pressure because investors noticed 3 major cracks in the AI narrative:

The Massive Azure Deceleration: Microsoft's vital cloud business Azure, grew by 31%.  While 31% is still incredibly fast, it represents a notable slowdown from previous quarters and fell short of the 39% to 40% growth that big institutional investors demanded to justify the stock's expensive price.

The Staggering Spending Surge: Microsoft revealed it spent a jaw dropping USD 37.5 billion on capital expenditure or Capex in just 1 single quarter.  This is a huge 66% increase compared to last year.

Investors are growing deeply anxious that Microsoft is building data centers and buying AI chips faster than it can convert them into clear, every day profit margins.

The OpenAI Concentration Risk: In a surprise disclosure, Microsoft revealed that 45% of its massive USD 625 billion contract backlog is tied directly to OpenAI.  Relying this heavily on a single cash burning partner has raised massive red flags on Wall Street regarding the stability of Microsoft's future revenues.


Why the Whole Market is Down Today 

Microsoft's results explain why the broader US market has been sliding.  The market is going through a big sector rotation.  Big investment funds are actively fleeing high flying tech and chip stocks and channeling their money into boring safe sectors like healthcare, financials and consumer staples.

Fears of AI spending bubble are escalating.  When investors see Microsoft spending USD 37 billion a quarter while cloud growth slows down, they worry that Big Tech is overspending.

Compounding this tech panic, the Federal Reserve wraps up its major policy meeting this week.  Because the Fed has refused to promise an exact date for interest rate cuts, investors are gripped by fear that a surprise rate hike could still happen to combat global tariff inflation.


What Should Investors Do?

With Microsoft setting a rocky tone for the remaining Big 4 giants - Meta, Amazon and Apple reporting later this week, buying individual tech stocks right now is risky.

Instead the smartest way to exploit this tech dip is to buy a small piece of all 100 top tech companies at once through a diversified Nasdaq 100 ETF.  Here are the 4 best ETFs to buy on clearance:

1.  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  is the big favourite of institutions.  QQQ is one of the oldest and largest ETFs globally.  It is highly popular with professional traders because millions of shares move through it every second.  This makes it easy to buy and sell instantly.

Expense ratio is 0.20%.  Dividend Yield is 0.58% per year.

2. $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$  is best for long term buy and hold. QQQM holds the exact same companies as QQQ but features a lower expense ratio of 0.15%.  The dividend yield is 0.57% per year.

3. $State Street SPDR Portfolio Nasdaq 100 ETF(QNDX)$ is State Street's new challenger fund designed to undercut the competition in price.  It holds the same companies as QQQ but at a rock bottom price point.  It last closed at USD 22.88 compared to QQQ's price point of USD 675.49.  It also has the lowest expense ratio of just 0.10% among competing ETFs.

4. $iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF(IQQ)$ is the latest challenger to QQQ by BlackRock.  It has just been launched on July 8 2026.  The current expense ratio is 0.10% but it would go up to 0.12% from August 1 2027.  BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, managing over USD 15 trillion in assets.  IQQ also has a low price point of USD 22.86 compared to QQQ.

Investors are now spoilt for choice to invest in the Nasdaq 100 index.


Concluding Thoughts 

Microsoft's latest earnings proves that the era of easy predictable tech gains has temporarily transitioned into a choppy headline driven environment.  It is hard to predict how Meta or Apple will perform later this week.

If you are new to investing, look at this tech pullback as a regular bump in the road on a long wealth building journey.  By setting up an automated plan through Tiger Brokers Auto Invest feature to steadily dollar cost average into low cost funds like QNDX, QQQM or IQQ, you completely eliminate the stress of market timing.

Let the Wall Street traders panic over the daily headlines while you quietly use these minor tech sales to build your long term fortune.

Volatility is the price to pay for long term gains.

As the late great Charlie Munger famously said:  " The Big Money is not in the buying and selling but in the Waiting."   He also said " The First Rule of Compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily."

@Tiger_comments  @Tiger_SG  @TigerStars  @TBlive  

The boss asked me to issue coins
Hello everyone! Today is the eve of the "US Stock Earnings Week War", and it is also the first day of this tiger! To be honest, the boss stuffed a pocket of tiger coins as soon as he entered the office, and gave a death order: "If you can't finish it in a month, don't think about getting off work!" In order to get off work early and eat hot pot, I will hold fresh topics here every day and wait for everyone. As long as you dare to talk, I dare to send it! Look directly at today's hot discussion πŸ‘‡ πŸ”₯ The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%. Should the Fed FOMC + Big Four be safe from earnings week?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Phoebezzz
    17 minutes ago
    Phoebezzz
    Thanks for the detailed analysis, agree that the key question is whether AI infrastructure spending can translate into sustainable revenue growth.[Strong]
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