Shyon
08-19 09:12
I’m leaning bullish on Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ going into earnings. The headline EPS and net income declines are expected, but I think the bigger story is whether heavy AI investment is finally translating into stronger Cloud growth and improving profitability.

Alibaba Cloud growing over 40% would be a major positive signal, especially if AI-related demand continues to scale. I’ll also be watching whether Instant Commerce losses start narrowing, which could give China e-commerce margins some much-needed relief.

My vote: Bullish but within flat range📈. If Alibaba delivers strong Cloud growth and gives investors confidence that AI spending can drive future profits, I think the market could reward the stock even if near-term earnings remain under pressure.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_Earnings

Alibaba Cloud External Revenue Hits 22-Quarter High, But GAAP Profit Drops ~75%?
Alibaba's FY27 Q1: revenue of 268.95bn yuan, +9% and a hair above the 268.52bn consensus. Profit needs two lenses — adjusted net profit −38% to 20.72bn, GAAP net profit −75%; quoting only the adjusted figure understates the erosion. Capex +75% to 67.68bn, nearly all AI infrastructure, and the return is visible: cloud external revenue +45%, a 22-quarter high, AI product revenue in triple digits for 12 straight quarters, AI cloud annualizing near 49.5bn. The U.S. listing rose 1.26% on the print. Re-rate on cloud, wait for capex to peak, or watch margins next quarter?
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Comments

  • NatalieTommy
    08-19 17:53
    NatalieTommy
    IV is already juiced into earnings, so the calls feel way too rich. I care more about whether management gives any concrete timeline on Instant Commerce losses narrowing.
    • Shyon: 
      Thanks for sharing your POV
  • winzy
    08-19 17:53
    winzy
    Cloud EBITA margin matters more to me than 40% growth. If they can get it back above 5%, bulls finally have something real to lean on
    • Shyon: 
      That's the ideal case
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