[Events] Fed Watch: Hike or Hold? What’s Your Call?

TigerEvents
09-14 17:26
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A few months ago, markets were still debating when the Fed might start cutting rates. Now the conversation has flipped.

After another hot inflation print and a fresh surge in oil prices, investors are asking a very different question: Could the Fed hike again?

  • U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, up sharply from 0.1% in July, while headline inflation climbed 3.4% from a year earlier.

  • Core CPI also came in hotter than expected, rising 0.3% month-on-month, its biggest increase in four months.

  • Energy is adding another layer of pressure. Brent crude has moved back above US$100 a barrel, raising concerns that higher fuel costs could eventually feed through into transport, goods and services.

That has pushed Wall Street expectations in a more hawkish direction.Markets are now heavily pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike, while major banks including Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have also shifted toward a more hawkish outlook.

But the Fed still faces a difficult choice.

  • Hike rates, and it risks putting more pressure on growth, housing and high-valuation tech stocks.

  • Hold steady, and inflation could prove even harder to bring back under control.

So what’s your call?

  • A Hike 25bp-Inflation is still too hot to ignore.

  • B Hold-The Fed should wait for more data.

  • C Hike 50bp-Go harder now before inflation gets worse.

Bonus question: If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest?

  • 🤖 AI & tech stocks

  • 🏠 Housing

  • ₿ Bitcoin

  • 🥇 Gold

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10-Year Treasury Hits 5% Intraday — Can Equities Hold?
Indexes held up far better than chips: QQQ −0.80% to $709.18, SPY −0.45% to $760.88, S&P 500 −0.48% to 7,619.98. The 10-year touched 5.012% intraday, highest since 2007, then closed near 4.95% — it did not hold 5%. Inflation and supply both pushed: Friday's data took hike odds to 88%, oil rebounded, government and corporate borrowing keeps growing. A higher discount rate hits earnings that sit furthest out — chips fell hard, the index under 1%. The Fed decides Wednesday, 2 a.m. Beijing Sept 17. The index not following chips looks like rotation, not exit. At 5%, has the market reacted enough?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Shyon
    09-14 19:03
    Shyon
    For me, I would choose A — Hike 25bp. The latest inflation data is too sticky to ignore, especially with core CPI accelerating and oil prices back above US$100. I think the Fed would rather make a small adjustment now than risk allowing inflation expectations to become harder to control later.

    I would not expect a 50bp hike at this stage because that could create unnecessary pressure on economic growth and financial markets. A 25bp hike would be a more measured approach, while keeping the door open for the Fed to pause if inflation starts cooling again.

    If the Fed hikes, my pick for the biggest short-term impact is 🤖 AI & tech stocks. Higher rates usually put pressure on high-valuation growth stocks because future earnings become less attractive when discounted at higher rates. I remain bullish on AI and the long-term trend, but I would rather see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate gradually than chase prices higher.

    @TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents

  • 北极篂
    09:41
    北极篂
    如果美联储加息，受打击最大的绝对是 🤖人工智能与高估值科技股。
    因为科技股的估值高度依赖极长期限的现金流折现（DCF），对无风险利率（美债收益率）敏感度极高，加息会瞬间压缩其市盈率（PE）倍数；相比之下，住房市场此前已有锁死效应垫底，黄金与比特币已部分计入避险情绪，唯独高企的AI估值泡沫最脆弱。
  • 北极篂
    09:41
    北极篂
    我倾向于 甲（上调25bp）。
    通胀的二次粘性远比衰退风险更难缠。美联储若在此刻选择“停手观望”，极易释放错误的松动信号，导致通胀预期彻底锚定失败，重蹈70年代“走走停停”的政策覆辙。以25bp的预防性加息保持政策连贯性，是兼顾信誉与风险控制的折中解。
  • GordonLee66
    00:04
    GordonLee66
    My pick is B - Fed will hold till more data is available. But once it holds, it’s creditablity will take a big hit and US$ will tumble, stocks and precious metals will zoom up like crazy.
  • moliya
    09-14 19:03
    moliya
    fed will not raise to 50bp where as they will increase to25bp which will increase inflation
    this inflation will affect gold, housing and tech n AI stocks
    I wait for Kevin wasj to announce
  • 苏36
    09-14 17:52
    苏36
    My pick: A — Hike 25bp.

    I’d rather see the Fed make a small move now than wait until inflation becomes harder to control. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, while core CPI accelerated to 0.3%, and energy prices are adding another layer of risk.

    But I don’t think 50bp makes sense. Much of the renewed inflation pressure is coming from energy, so an aggressive hike could damage growth without solving the underlying supply shock.

    If the Fed hikes, AI & high-valuation tech stocks probably feel the biggest immediate pressure. Higher yields raise the discount rate, making expensive future-growth stories harder to justify.

    That said, strong AI cash flows could make mega-cap tech more resilient than speculative growth stocks.

    25bp hike, not 50bp — and watch the Fed’s next move closely.

    @TigerEvents [你懂的]

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