I hate to admit it but one of my favourites - $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ shares have had a dreadful 2026, so far.
As of 01 Oct 2026 intraday, the online bank's stock is trading down -42.92% YTD and are -50% off its peak. (see below)
As of 01 Oct 2026 intraday
This downturn occurred despite the business has performed well.
If you have had your eye on SoFi as a long-term investment (like me), it is worth taking a closer look.
Below is one reason why there is never a better time to own this fintech stock.
It's all about growth.
The most exciting part of SoFi is its impressive growth.
Its numbers resemble an early-stage technology business more than a bank. Adjusted net revenue rose by +41% YoY in Q2 2026, with adjusted net income up +65%.
SoFi's exceptional growth trajectory is also demonstrated by its expanding deposit base.
As of end Q2 2026 (30 Jun 2026), the business had $45.5 billion in total deposits on its balance sheet.
This figure was up an impressive +1,585% compared to the end of Q2 2022.
FYI, SoFi received its national bank charter in early 2022, enabling it to accept deposits directly. Since then, it hasn't looked back.
In the financial services industry, deposits are a source of competitive strength :
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They are generally viewed as extremely sticky, as consumers get discouraged when they have to update all their banking information and payment connections.
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It's also a sign that people trust a particular company with their money.
In SoFi's case, deposits have contributed to loan originations by funding lending opportunities.
The business had $47.9 billion in total loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter. That's a notable increase from $32.2 billion just 12 months before.
‘Risk’ to growth.
Like all investors, I like seeing a company grow; especially one that I have a vested interest in.
Having said that, it is important to look at the associated risks, too.
SoFi grew its loans by using money from new deposits. Because the loan business got bigger so fast, it also took on more risk.
Investors need to ask whether SoFi’s leaders’ team has managed this growth carefully?
Just to be clear, there isn't anything to worry about just yet.
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Last quarter, personal loans saw a 2.62% net charge-off rate, an improvement from the previous quarter.
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And it has trended lower for the past couple of years.
Nonetheless, the possibility of a severe recession is always present.
US banking entities and their shareholders have to deal with this reality.
Any notable downturn, whether it is driven by (a) rising interest rates, (b) a slowdown in artificial intelligence spending, or (c) geopolitical turmoil, could negatively impact a company like SoFi.
Borrowers might start to miss payments, leading to sizable losses on the income statement.
“Next-leg” growth: stablecoins & infrastructure
Beyond deposits and loans, SoFi is building a payments and infrastructure layer that could become a meaningful earnings driver over time.
In September 2026, the company launched SoFiUSD settlement across $MasterCard(MA)$’s network, migrating its full debit & credit card program to stablecoin settlement in a live program expected to process more than $25 billion in annualized volume. (see above)
Transactions are already running on blockchain rails, and merchants do not need to hold stablecoins or build new infrastructure to participate.
SoFi is also in discussions with large US merchants to broaden adoption beyond its own card base.
Institutionally, Payward will join the SoFi Exchange Network, list SoFiUSD on Kraken, and use SoFi’s Big Business Banking capabilities, while SoFi will use Kraken Prime for digital-asset liquidity. (see above)
In the second quarter, management noted roughly $300 million of SoFiUSD in circulation, with early commercial clients moving money in real time through the network.
While direct revenue contribution is still early, this infrastructure push gives SoFi an additional lever to grow fee-based income and net interest revenue alongside its core lending and deposit franchise.
For long-term investors, this matters because it adds a potential “next leg” of growth that is not purely dependent on credit expansion.
If stablecoin adoption scales, SoFi could monetize its member base and enterprise relationships through payments, settlement, and digital-asset services, diversifying earnings beyond traditional banking margins.
Technical Analysis.
To wrap things up, a look at SoFi’s technical indicators of (a) Simple Moving Averages, (b) MACD and (c) RSI should provide clues on the digibank’s trajectory in the near terms and how individual investors like us can better position ourselves.
Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
SoFi ended first trading day of October 2026 at $15.84 per share.
This is lower than its SMAs of (a) 20-day ($16.97), (b) 50-day ($17.47) and (c) 200-day ($18.99).
This alignment is bearish because the stock is weaker than its short-, medium-, and long-term trend benchmarks.
It also suggests that recent rallies have not been strong enough to establish a sustained recovery.
Coupled with a prominent death cross formed around 04 Mar 2026, when the shorter-term 50-day SMA crossed beneath the long-term 200-day SMA. This structural shift marked the transition into a broader bear phase.
MACD.
Both MACD line (-0.51) and Signal line (-0.38) are below the zero line. This confirms that overall momentum remains negative and SoFi is operating in a bearish regime.
With the MACD line sitting lower than the Signal line, this produces a bearish crossover signal, indicating that short-term selling pressure is accelerating faster than the broader trend.
With divergence coming in at -0.13, it shows that SoFi has not yet generated the momentum needed for a bullish crossover.
For a recovery to begin, the MACD line minimally needs to cross above the Signal line and both lines above the zero line.
Recent bearish momentum across US market does not help either.
SoFi's growth is the main reason to buy shares today while its reasonably priced. Investors should always remember its other side of the story and the way future forward. Agree ?
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Do you think short seller Muddy Waters short report in March 2026 has damaged SoFi permanently ?
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Do you think SoFi is well-positioned and ready for its next phrase of growth ?
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Comments
Let's hope that it continue it's ascension without a hitch, amidst a volatile market.
The 3 Composite Futures indexes are poised to open higher between +0.38% (S&P 500) and +0.67 (Nasdaq).
And just like that $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ is slated to open higher as well, at +0.88%.
All that is missing now is the US Non-farm payroll report due out in about 2 hours time. Traders are waiting "patiently" for the latest set of numbers, that will determine if US market ends on a high or low note, this Friday.
What do you think ?
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As a result that lowered expectations for an October interest rate hike.
Most bank stocks rose except for JPM & SoFi. Why?