JPM Tops Q3 Earnings on 13 Oct ? Ready ?

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 financial results before the market opens on Tue, 14 Oct 2026.

Latest forecast I managed to track down was published on Sun, 11 Oct 2026.

Here’s the skinny:

• Earnings per share (EPS) GAAP : will be approx. $5.94.

• Revenue : expected to come in at $52.21 billion.

• Net Interest Income (NII) managed : is expected to range between $26.84 billion - 26.96 billion.

Estimates vary by provider: another recent preview gives EPS to be in the range of $5.90 – $5.93 and revenue around $51.2 billion.

Comparisons.

(1) QoQ comparison.

When comparing with Q2 2026, both headline measures are expected to retreat.

This is because Q2 2026’s earnings have included a $4.6 billion net gain from (a) the sale of Visa shares & (b) a $1.0 billion in equity investment gains; totaling a $1.56 EPS impact.

• Q2 Earnings per share (diluted GAAP): was $7.07. As such, EPS is expected to fall -22.86%.

• Q2 Revenue (GAAP) : was $57.347 billion.

  Revenue is expected to fall -8.96%.

• Q2 Net interest income (NII) was $21.2 billion. NII is expected to rise by +26.89%.

(2) YoY comparison.

On a ‘brighter’ note, when comparing with Q3 2025, both headline measures are expected to increase:

• Q2 2025 Earnings per share (EPS) GAAP : was $5.07 /share.

• As such, EPS is expected to rise by +17.16% YoY.

• Q2 2025 Revenue was $47.12 billion.

• Revenue is expected to increase by +10.8% YoY.

• Q2 2025 Net interest income (NII) was $23.3 billion.

• NII is expected to increase by +15.45% YoY.

Analysis Breakdown.

The forecasts point to solid YoY growth, but a sequential slowdown from an unusually strong Q2.

Analysts expect markets revenue & investment-banking fees to contribute, supported by trading activity & deal-related income.

• Markets revenue growth is expected to be in the mid-to-high teens YoY.

• Investment-banking fee growth in the mid-to-high teens

At the same time, (a) flagging higher expenses and (b) credit costs as potential offsets.

Will rising Treasury yields affects JPM ?

As of 9 Oct 2026, US’s 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.24% and the 30-year around 5.60%, after both briefly reached 24-year highs earlier in the week. (see below)

Higher rates can support returns on new loans and interest-earning assets, potentially helping NII.

However, they do not automatically translate into higher profits:

• Depositors may seek better rates, raising JPMorgan’s funding costs.

• While borrowing costs can restrain loan demand and increase repayment stress.

Analysts identify deposit pricing, loan growth, and credit quality as the key offsets to any rate-driven benefit.

Q4 2026 and FY 2027.

As for US Treasury yields’ effect on Q4 and FY2027, it will depend less on the 10- and 30-year yields in isolation.

Rather, it will be dependent more on:

• How, the whole yield curve evolves.

• How quickly JPM reprices deposits.

• Whether loan balances and credit performance hold up.

In Q2 2026, JPM management has mentioned that “higher rates contributed to its raised NII outlook”, but that deposit balances and mix were the larger drivers.

It also cautioned that deposit-rate sensitivity could change as rates rise.

For Q4 2026, elevated yields could provide some NII support if asset yields rise faster than deposit costs.

If funding competition intensifies or high borrowing costs weaken credit demand and repayment, the benefit could be eroded.

For FY 2027, treat elevated Treasury yields’ impact as uncertain.

So far, market consensus reviewed do not provide a specific JPM 2027 NII forecast, and the bank’s Q2 guidance applies to FY2026.

The earnings call’s update to 2026 guidance and any comments on deposit costs, loan growth, credit quality, and the 2027 run rate, will be more informative than extrapolating today’s long-term yields.

Bottom line.

Current forecasts imply strong YoY Q3 growth but lower EPS & revenue than Q2 2026’s exceptional quarter.

Elevated yields may help NII, but they are not an unqualified tailwind; the quality & durability of that income will depend on factors like (a) deposits, (b) lending costs, and (c) credit costs.

As of 09 Oct 2026

Technical Analysis.

To further determine if JPM’s is a worthy investment, will be looking at JPM’s technical indicators of (1) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of (a) 20-day, (b) 50-day and (c) 200-day, (2) MACD and (3) RSI.

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

On Fri, 09 Oct 2026, JPM closed marginally higher at $332.99 per share.

This is lower than its SMAs of (a) 20-day ($357.08), (b) 50-day ($351.30) and higher than its (c) 200-day ($319.15)

This placed JPM shares under short- and intermediate-term pressure, while longer-term trend remains less damaged.

The 50-day SMA is still above the 200-day, preserving the earlier golden cross.

However, stock price has fallen below both shorter averages, a bearish near-term configuration.

Moving averages are lagging indicators, so they describe the trend rather than predict a turn.

MACD.

Both MACD line (1.01) and Signal line (1.98) are sitting comfortably above the Zero line. This indicates that despite recent sell-off, long-term bullish momentum has not been completely erased. (see above)

The MACD Line sits below the Signal Line, generating a negative histogram divergence of -0.97, that is represented by the red histogram bars below the baseline.

The bearish crossover and negative histogram divergence indicate (i) ongoing downward momentum and (ii) steady distribution.

While both lines holding above zero shows the overarching macro trend is positive, trajectory is pointing downward toward the zero threshold.

A bullish shift requires the MACD line to turn up and cross back above the Signal line, any move below zero would be a further deterioration.

RSI.

The 14-day RSI stood at 48.18, below the neutral 50 mark and it is neither oversold nor overbought territory.

The 14-day RSI stands at 48.18, placing it in neutral territory (between 30 and 70) after rebounding slightly from near-oversold levels.

For now, it points to softer momentum rather than an extreme selling condition.

Summary.

Looking through above, bears are broadly in control of JPM stock as it heads into the bank’s Q3 earnings, before US market opens.

Conversely, the derivatives market believes the dynamic will shift after the print, making the bank stock attractive to own – especially since it pays a healthy 1.97% dividend yield as well.

JPM enters Q3 2026 earnings with strong YoY operational growth, despite sequential pressure following an exceptional Q2.

Technical indicators reflect short-term bearishness, yet strong fundamentals, elevated yields, and solid dividend support favour long-term resilience. Agree ?

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• Do you think JPM’s expected YoY growth can outweigh the sequential decline from Q2 2026’s unusually strong results ?

• Do you think elevated Treasury yields will ultimately support JPM’s NII, or will higher funding costs and credit risks offset the benefit ?

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