Jensen Huang is officially out.
After 33 years building Nvidia into an AI powerhouse, its founder has resigned as CEO and director.
The market's reaction?
BRUTAL.
Nvidia closed Friday, November 13, at:
$162.85.
Down:
2.01%.
After hours?
$161.01.
And earlier in the week, Nvidia briefly touched:
$148.80.
Now here's something extraordinary.
HSBC has cut its price target to:
$170.
But Raymond James maintains:
$515.
That's more than a THREEFOLD difference.
How can two professional analysts look at the same company and arrive at such different conclusions?
I think the answer reveals what Nvidia shareholders are really facing.
THE BUSINESS HASN'T LOST ITS AI CUSTOMERS.
BUT THE MARKET HAS LOST CERTAINTY ABOUT ITS LEADERSHIP.
And the most interesting person in this story may no longer be Jensen Huang.
It may be Colette Kress.
๐ฅ FIRST, NVIDIA IS NOT THE SAME COMPANY IT WAS LAST WEEK
On November 12, Nvidia officially confirmed its leadership transition.
Jensen Huang: Resigned.
Colette Kress: Interim CEO and CFO.
Harvey C. Jones: Chairman of the Board.
The company has begun searching for a permanent CEO.
Importantly, Nvidia has indicated that its operations, customer commitments and product roadmap are expected to continue.
But I wouldn't pretend this is a small change.
Huang was central to Nvidia's strategy, engineering culture, customer relationships and market identity.
Investors weren't simply buying GPUs.
They were also buying confidence in his ability to anticipate the next computing revolution.
That confidence was part of Nvidia's valuation.
And now?
THE FOUNDER PREMIUM IS BEING REASSESSED.
But does the loss of Huang automatically mean Nvidia is worth dramatically less?
I don't think so.
๐ง COLETTE KRESS COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT PERSON TO WATCH
Here's something I find fascinating.
Reuters describes Kress as a financially disciplined counterweight to some of Huang's more aggressive investment ambitions.
She reportedly challenged large financing commitments linked to AI infrastructure customers.
And this could be significant.
Because the AI industry is entering a new phase.
For years, the market rewarded companies for expanding as quickly as possible.
More GPUs.
More data centres.
More contracts.
More capital expenditure.
But now investors are asking:
WHO IS ACTUALLY MAKING MONEY FROM ALL THIS SPENDING?
Nvidia has supported the AI ecosystem through strategic investments and commercial relationships.
These arrangements can accelerate demand.
But they can also expose Nvidia to the financial health of its customers.
If Kress becomes more selective about Nvidia's capital commitments?
That could reduce certain financial risks.
Of course, there's a trade-off.
More conservative capital allocation could also slow expansion or weaken relationships with customers that depend on financing support.
So here's my contrarian question.
WHAT IF LOSING THE VISIONARY FORCES NVIDIA TO BECOME A MORE FINANCIALLY DISCIPLINED COMPANY?
That wouldn't eliminate the leadership risk.
But it could eventually improve the quality of Nvidia's growth.
๐จ WHY WALL STREET IS SO DIVIDED
Look at the analyst targets.
HSBC: $170, HOLD
Concerned about leadership uncertainty, execution and possible export restrictions.
Needham: $200, BUY
Still constructive, but expecting near-term valuation pressure.
Barclays: $210, OVERWEIGHT
Recognises Nvidia's technological advantages while reducing its valuation expectations.
Raymond James: $515, STRONG BUY
Believes the company is fundamentally bigger than its founder.
Now, I wouldn't blindly follow any of them.
A $515 target is not a guarantee that Nvidia will triple.
And $170 is not necessarily fair value.
These are longer-term analyst opinions based on different assumptions.
The biggest difference may lie in how much investors should pay for Nvidia's future earnings.
And whether the leadership transition changes those earnings.
Because:
A LOWER SHARE PRICE DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN LOWER BUSINESS VALUE.
But neither does it automatically mean the stock is cheap.
๐ฅ THE BUSINESS STILL HAS EXTRAORDINARY NUMBERS
Nvidia's latest reported quarterly revenue:
$96.2 BILLION.
Up:
106% YoY.
Data-centre revenue:
$89 BILLION.
Up:
117%.
Non-GAAP gross margin:
75%.
And management's previous Q3 revenue guidance?
$108 BILLION ยฑ2%.
These are exceptional fundamentals.
The company's CUDA ecosystem, networking platforms, engineering teams and installed customer relationships haven't disappeared with Huang's departure.
But there's a critical question.
CAN THE NEW LEADERSHIP DELIVER THE SAME GROWTH WITHOUT THE SAME LEVEL OF AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION?
That is what I want answered next.
And we'll soon get the opportunity.
๐ NOVEMBER 17: THE MOST IMPORTANT NVIDIA EARNINGS CALL IN YEARS?
Nvidia reports its fiscal Q3 results on Tuesday, November 17, after the US close.
Analysts expect approximately:
$109.4 BILLION IN REVENUE.
Slightly above management's previous $108B guidance midpoint.
But I think investors will be watching more than revenue.
1. PRODUCT ROADMAP
Are Vera Rubin deployment and customer deliveries progressing as expected?
2. CUSTOMER DEMAND
Are hyperscalers continuing their AI spending plans?
3. GROSS MARGINS
Can Nvidia maintain its exceptional profitability?
4. CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Will the new leadership become more conservative with financing and strategic investments?
5. CEO SUCCESSION
How much clarity can management provide about permanent leadership?
A strong earnings beat with weak leadership communication might not be enough.
But a strong beat with reassuring execution guidance?
THAT COULD CHANGE SENTIMENT QUICKLY.
๐ฎ MY NVIDIA PREDICTION: NOVEMBER 16โ20
Reference: Friday close at $162.85.
Options pricing implies traders anticipate an unusually large earnings-week move, roughly 8% in either direction.
That is an implied move, not a directional forecast.
Here are my subjective scenarios.
๐ข BULL CASE: 30%
Nvidia beats earnings.
Management delivers reassuring guidance.
Kress demonstrates continuity and a disciplined approach to capital allocation.
Investors begin reducing the leadership-risk discount.
Potential recovery:
$175โ$190.
A break above $190 would require especially strong follow-through.
๐ก BASE CASE: 45%
MY MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
Nvidia reports strong fundamentals.
But investors remain cautious about succession, governance and future investment commitments.
The stock attempts rebounds but faces resistance.
Expected working range:
$150โ$175.
This is where I expect substantial volatility.
๐ด BEAR CASE: 25%
Earnings or guidance disappoint.
Succession uncertainty deepens.
Customer financing concerns or export restrictions become more significant.
Nvidia breaks its recent low near $148.80.
Potential downside:
$135โ$150.
These ranges are scenario estimates. An unexpected earnings or leadership announcement could move the stock beyond them.
๐ฏ MY ACTUAL NVIDIA BUYING MAP
$148.80โ$155: HIGH-RISK SUPPORT WATCH
This region includes the recent panic low.
I would not buy automatically simply because Nvidia returns here.
I want evidence of stabilisation.
$158โ$163: IMMEDIATE BATTLE ZONE
Friday's low was $158.39.
I want to see whether buyers can defend this area.
$170โ$175: FIRST MEANINGFUL RECOVERY
Friday's intraday high was $170.
Reclaiming this region and holding it would be constructive.
$180โ$190: STRONGER BULLISH CONFIRMATION
This becomes more realistic if the earnings outlook remains strong and leadership confidence improves.
BELOW $148.80: REASSESS
I would become considerably more cautious.
For existing shareholders, I wouldn't mechanically average down merely to reduce the cost basis.
For fresh entries, I would prefer a smaller starter position after stabilisation, or wait until the earnings reaction provides confirmation.
And I would be particularly careful with leverage.
๐ฅ MY CALL: NVIDIA HAS LOST ITS FOUNDER-CEO. IT HAS NOT YET LOST ITS TECHNOLOGICAL MOAT.
Here's where I stand.
I believe Nvidia remains one of the most important companies in the global AI industry.
But I also believe investors need to stop assuming its extraordinary historical execution will automatically continue unchanged.
Huang's departure creates real uncertainty.
The board must demonstrate credibility.
The interim leadership must demonstrate competence.
And customers must remain confident.
But there's another possibility.
NVIDIA MAY ENTER A NEW ERA OF FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE.
If Kress preserves Nvidia's technological leadership while improving capital allocation and reducing unnecessary risk?
The company could emerge stronger.
But that's a possibility.
Not yet a proven outcome.
For next week, my base case is:
$150โ$175.
Above $175 with credible earnings and leadership reassurance?
I become more constructive.
Below $148.80?
I protect capital.
And here's my central takeaway.
JENSEN BUILT THE EMPIRE.
THE NEXT LEADERSHIP TEAM MUST PROVE THE EMPIRE CAN THRIVE WITHOUT HIM.
That's the real investment test.
Not whether Nvidia can still sell GPUs.
But whether it can preserve its extraordinary technology advantage, customer confidence and profitability through a historic leadership transition.
I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!
Would you buy Nvidia near $160, wait until after November 17 earnings, or look toward AMD and Broadcom instead?
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