I would expect target price to be about $6-7. Was about $8.50 before covid. Don't expect it to reach its previous level any time soon given the huge debts it is now in. 

Inflation, especially rising fuel costs will also eat into its profits. Fuel costs prior to covid-19 and having to add new planes were already a big part of spending. It also needs to service its planes and hire back some of its previous manpower. Some of them might have also changed industries for good and unwilling to take the risk of moving back after 2 years. Re-hired manpower might need some re-training too. I do expect some new hires and higher training costs for full training versus refresher courses. I am expecting rising manpower costs to also eat into profits. Before covid-19, its prospects already wasn't as good as previous years too. Part of the price will be driven by euphoria as many cannot wait to travel and this is the national carrier which means it will not and cannot be allowed to collapse. In spite of this euphoria, weneed to bear in mind that many consumers are price-conscious. Budget airlines are always an option and were the main competitors before covid-19. There is no reason to believe otherwise post covid-19. With expected higher flight costs compared to before covid-19, budget conscious consumers might justbite the bullet and hang on a little while for prices to retreat before travelling again.

While I am optimistic about it, one cannot forget that it already was not as stellar before covid-19 crisis. The crisis added to its woes and burden it down with debts. The road to recovery will be a long one, at least in terms of years. Even with the re-opening, it is not 100% capacity, the target set for end of this year is only 50%. Euphoria for travel doesn't automatically translates to full recovery.

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