Now the biggest question is how and where the stock market will fall. Give my opinion.
From the Candlestick, the situation is very scary. Nasdaq and Dow Jones have fallen below the weekly 50-day moving average, and S&P is still a little short of falling below. It is estimated that the opening will arrive today. This can be regarded as a plunge, which is really rare in the past. Give two examples in recent years.
First, the global stock market plummeted in 2015. Nasdaq fell below the weekly moving average of 50 in August 2015, and fluctuated for nearly one year in July 2016.
Then came the continued bull market.Came to 2018 years,in September of this year, Trump launched a trade war, and the stock market continued to fall for three months, rebounding near the 120-week moving average
Then in February 2020, the epidemic caused a global plunge, in which it fell by 10% in February 24. A month later, due to the Federal Reserve's large-scale water release policy, the stock market stopped falling and rebounded within one month as never before.
What to do now
First, hold cash or observe positions, and never bargain-hunting or heavy positions.. Don't wait for the bargain-hunting time to lose all your money. You can imagine how deep it falls and how high it went up.
Second, establish a multi-directional stock observation pool. At present, there are too many black swan events in the world, and market changes are often a window for first observation, and occasionally you can use the delay of market response to earn some tips. The recommended targets are as follows:
- $EURO STOXX 50 Index - main 2203(FESXmain)$
- $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2203(ESmain)$
- $BTCmain(BTCmain)$
- $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$
- $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
- $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
- $TENCENT(00700)$
- $Alibaba(BABA)$
- $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
- $Apple(AAPL)$
- $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$
- $Estee Lauder(EL)$
- $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
- $Microsoft(MSFT)$
- $Alphabet(GOOG)$
The European market is used to monitor the Eastern Hemisphere market, and BTC is used to monitor the trend of risky assets. If you find that the whole world is falling today, especially the BTC plummeted, it is recommended not to move the idea of bargain-hunting (in addition, before the market, you can take advantage of COIN's failure to short and earn some tips). It is recommended to set up a separate group with the above label Optional.
This week's situation
There are three major events at present this week:
- Federal Reserve meeting
- Earning reports
- The situation in Ukraine
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed will hold its first policy meeting this year, and the market does not expect to take action on interest rates at this meeting. Judging from the market reaction, it is also like saying to Powell that I will die if you talk one more thing. Everyone thinks that the Fed is afraid to start work now, but what if it raises interest rates in advance?
There are many company earnings this week, including Microsoft,Boeing on Wednesday, Intel and Tesla on Thursday morning and Apple on Friday morning. Judging from the situation of ASML and Netflix, if their financial reports do not fall will be good. No matter which company's financial reports are thunderous, the market can't bear it.
The last thing is the black swan. The border dispute between Russia and Ukraine is on the verge, and the Russian market flies straight down$Market Vectors Russia ETF(RSX)$, bringing down European stocks.
I don't recommend sell put today. Last week, I leveled NVIDIA and changed some apples. If you sell put doesn't want to close position and wants to roll, it is suggested to roll 4 months later, for the reasons mentioned at the beginning of the article.
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